Brad Ellis
Senior Member
- Joined
- Feb 7, 2006
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- California
Randolph,
So the hedge fund took the wrong position. Even so-called experts get it wrong, but the whole idea of hedging is AVOID the risk. You left that part out. Even after losing a billion on this fund they are stil going to make near a billion overall.
Gas prices dropped 65% and it never made the news the way the housing market is making the news. And the housing market thru July was still going UP. Now I've already said I think we are in the bear market for residential property and that the numbers will probably show a decline in national prices.
Just not very much.
So, here we have one market that go almost no national news outside the places where natural gas investors look- nothing on TV that I saw- nothing that the general public was particularly aware of, anyway, and what- prices dropped like a stone.
Now to the housing market and probably every homeowner (70% +/- of all Americans or near that) knows about the "bubble". It is unavoidable. I expect to see billboards on buses soon! And what are they doing? They are staying put.
Am I concerned about defaults? Of course. Am I worried? Not yet. Everything is happening in that part of things as has been forecast- up 300%. Why am I not worried? Even though the majority of loans from 2005 and 2006 are adjustable, in aggregate, they do not amount to all that much for anyone excpet the sensationalist reporters. Lenders expected it. Investors ecxpected it. Wall St. has discounted it already.
So OK, the gas market was a bubble- I agree. So, are you saying housing must decline in a similar way to be in a bubble?
You know, I'll admit that my actually presenting my targets gives you guys all you need to post all this. If it disagrees with my targets than I must be wrong- is that it?
Bye.
Brad
So the hedge fund took the wrong position. Even so-called experts get it wrong, but the whole idea of hedging is AVOID the risk. You left that part out. Even after losing a billion on this fund they are stil going to make near a billion overall.
Gas prices dropped 65% and it never made the news the way the housing market is making the news. And the housing market thru July was still going UP. Now I've already said I think we are in the bear market for residential property and that the numbers will probably show a decline in national prices.
Just not very much.
So, here we have one market that go almost no national news outside the places where natural gas investors look- nothing on TV that I saw- nothing that the general public was particularly aware of, anyway, and what- prices dropped like a stone.
Now to the housing market and probably every homeowner (70% +/- of all Americans or near that) knows about the "bubble". It is unavoidable. I expect to see billboards on buses soon! And what are they doing? They are staying put.
Am I concerned about defaults? Of course. Am I worried? Not yet. Everything is happening in that part of things as has been forecast- up 300%. Why am I not worried? Even though the majority of loans from 2005 and 2006 are adjustable, in aggregate, they do not amount to all that much for anyone excpet the sensationalist reporters. Lenders expected it. Investors ecxpected it. Wall St. has discounted it already.
So OK, the gas market was a bubble- I agree. So, are you saying housing must decline in a similar way to be in a bubble?
You know, I'll admit that my actually presenting my targets gives you guys all you need to post all this. If it disagrees with my targets than I must be wrong- is that it?
Bye.
Brad