moh malekpour
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Will turbulence in America's subprime mortgage market spread?
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8829612
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8829612
LAST November the American publisher of those bright-yellow books that claim to help “dummies” master everything from trigonometry to anger management released “Flipping Houses for Dummies”. It promised to teach would-be property moguls how to “lay the foundation for successful flipping and bring home the bucks”. Four months later, it is the seemingly indomitable housing market that has flipped. One of its main engines of growth, the subprime-mortgage industry, is in free-fall. Where it lands is anyone's guess
Lenders, intent on keeping fees flowing as the housing market began to cool in 2004, pulled an ever wider swathe of Main Street America into the housing market. They lowered underwriting standards and offered a bevy of “affordability” products like extra-long-term or “interest-only” mortgages (in which principal payments are deferred for a time) and loans with low teaser interest rates, known as hybrid mortgages, that balloon after a few years. Indeed, most subprime mortgages written in the past three years were “risk-layered”, using a combination of various inducements to make a mortgage more attractive to borrowers but also much riskier.
The “FICO” credit scores on which mortgage lending often relies did not capture this risk layering. Scores were probably inflated. David Hendler of CreditSights, a research firm, says around 40% of a FICO score is based on repayment history—but these records were The effects of a dramatic slowdown, or credit crunch, in the subprime and the Alt A market could spread. The stock of unsold homes would remain unsold longer, crimping house prices. Consumer spending might slow. Investors might shy away from securities backed by prime mortgages and other assets, not just subprime ones, pulling liquidity out of the market..