Randolph Kinney
Elite Member
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2005
- Professional Status
- Retired Appraiser
- State
- North Carolina
Lenders and their funky accounting - the kill ratio
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/05/lenders_and_their_funky_accoun.html
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/05/lenders_and_their_funky_accoun.html
Just how bad are losses on delinquent loans? You know that Alt-A lenders, companies that makes loans in the credit category above subprime, are seeing more borrowers miss payments and bad loans are mounting on their books.
So what's the kill ratio? It's just a fun name I made up. It works like this: Companies are required to set aside an "allowance for loan losses" for loans they expect to go bad in the future. This is different from a repurchase reserve which is for loans immediately taken back. The allowance is more long term; it's for loans companies count on their books, even if the loans were actually sold and turned into securities.
Anyway, my "kill ratio" is how much the allowance covers as a ratio against nonpeforming assets (dud loans and foreclosed real estate) or, even better, all loans 60 days or more past due. The allowance is a way of telling investors this is how much we are going to lose on those sour loans and on loans we made that could go sour later. It's a prediction of death, folks, as in the death of the housing market. Ha, ha.
Impac and Downey Financial of Newport Beach made it easy to find 60-day plus delinquencies. IndyMac did not, so I used nonperforming assets. What you see in the table below, is that the kill ratio is dropping for all these companies, because the reserve is not keeping pace with sour loans. That's actually not against accounting rules, but it's a red flag nonetheless. If the kill ratio falls, it means these companies are making rosy predictions about their ability to avoid death, i.e. losses.
Zach Gast of the Center for Financial Research, who may have been the only analyst on the planet to catch New Century's account "errors" last year, noted in a Nov. 6, 2006 report that New Century's allowance covered 22.8% of 60-day plus loans in the third quarter of 2006, down from a 47.9% ratio in the third quarter of 2005. You'll note in my table that Impac Mortgage seems comfortable with a ratio of 7%.