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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Lenders and their funky accounting - the kill ratio

http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/05/lenders_and_their_funky_accoun.html

Just how bad are losses on delinquent loans? You know that Alt-A lenders, companies that makes loans in the credit category above subprime, are seeing more borrowers miss payments and bad loans are mounting on their books.

So what's the kill ratio? It's just a fun name I made up. It works like this: Companies are required to set aside an "allowance for loan losses" for loans they expect to go bad in the future. This is different from a repurchase reserve which is for loans immediately taken back. The allowance is more long term; it's for loans companies count on their books, even if the loans were actually sold and turned into securities.

Anyway, my "kill ratio" is how much the allowance covers as a ratio against nonpeforming assets (dud loans and foreclosed real estate) or, even better, all loans 60 days or more past due. The allowance is a way of telling investors this is how much we are going to lose on those sour loans and on loans we made that could go sour later. It's a prediction of death, folks, as in the death of the housing market. Ha, ha.

Impac and Downey Financial of Newport Beach made it easy to find 60-day plus delinquencies. IndyMac did not, so I used nonperforming assets. What you see in the table below, is that the kill ratio is dropping for all these companies, because the reserve is not keeping pace with sour loans. That's actually not against accounting rules, but it's a red flag nonetheless. If the kill ratio falls, it means these companies are making rosy predictions about their ability to avoid death, i.e. losses.

Zach Gast of the Center for Financial Research, who may have been the only analyst on the planet to catch New Century's account "errors" last year, noted in a Nov. 6, 2006 report that New Century's allowance covered 22.8% of 60-day plus loans in the third quarter of 2006, down from a 47.9% ratio in the third quarter of 2005. You'll note in my table that Impac Mortgage seems comfortable with a ratio of 7%.
 
Duesenberry Effect


Loss of productivity does not necessarily go hand in hand with a loss of appetite for high consumption. No one will doubt that as a society, we are the world’s large consumers. Our saving rate is negative. The average credit card debt an American carries is $9,200. The Duesenberry Effect argues that once folks get accustomed to a way of life, for example Plasmas and BMWs, a $1 decrease in productivity does not equate to $1 reservation from spending. If anything, on the way down things will accelerate because people will try to maintain their style of life regardless of the loss of income or equity in their home. It is a fall from grace. Financial prudence isn’t the forte of the American public and this massive readjustment and recession will cause a lot more pain than many are envisioning.

No rational argument can demonstrate that a stagnating home market and wages will force individuals to readjust their spending habit. If our national trade deficit is any indicator, we are only becoming more hungry on ways to finance our appetite via credit. The reason the subprime implosion is so crucial and important is because this funding source is now evaporating. Wall Street is not happy with Collateralizing any more funny money debt; the idea of mixing feces in a large sea of good money. Investors gathered that if the pool of funds was large enough, bad and risky debt would be hedged into the matter and mixed in to the point that any drop would be supported and not noticed. This was all in good when the subprime market was tiny. But given that we have over $1.2 trillion in subprime debt originated in the past two years, we are now swimming in a black pool of our own consumption.


Insiders Out. Public In.


In each bubble, there is a privilege being in the know. Those that have insight and the fortitude to jump out early make out like bandits. Examining insiders selling of companies like Toll and New Century Financial, we see that large percentages of top officers sold at peak prices in 2005 and 2006. In addition, selling out of these positions is easier than liquidating a piece of real estate which all subsequent monetary value is derived from; there is no NEW without housing and there is no Toll without people purchasing homes. Many wonder why bubbles go on longer than they should. Again this assumption relies on the fact that markets always act rationally. But in a mania, the market is anything but sane. Mania, as in acting without direction, highlights an amazing ability for stupid money to chase to stupid products by stupid people. It is inevitable that people will and are getting burned for their financial indiscretions. The media will portray these poor individuals as being burned by big bad corporations hungry for a profit. They came too late to the party and unfortunately they were not able to flip a 800 square foot home for $50,000 in 6 months. As we know from studying mob psychology if everyone around us is going crazy and we remain stable, we will start sensing that we are out of our mind. At some point we decide to join the mob and follow the herd. That is why after a bubble has burst, many ordinary people realize that the game could not go on forever. Bubbles are also fueled by credit expansion and perception of quick wealth. Monetarist would have you believe that controlling the flow of money is key to sustainability. Well as you can see, now that the Fed has raised rates back up people are still hungry for housing; even if it means getting negative-amortization-no-doc-1-percent-teaser suicide loans. Essentially this act of financial irresponsibility is the “I’ll double down on 16 with a casino margin because I know a 5 will come out.” And why not? For the past 7 years we have been in a historical global credit expansion fueled by housing. When your home is your Joe or Susie Bank, why worry about money when you can look in your basement and find $50,000 nestled next to your family heirlooms.


At this point there is no silver bullet. Rampant excess in the forms of the previous stock bubble and the current housing bubble will need to be purged. Simply put, the recession we intervened on in 2001 with easy money will come back with a vengeance either in 2008 or 2009. The course of action is already set and financial institutions have made their mint only to loot the market when it crashes. They are out and the public is in. Will enough people have the ability to get out on time? Probably not. We have an unsupportable Social Security system, a costly war, and inflation. Inflation? If you still believe the CPI is an accurate indicator of inflation than you probably believe war is peace and hate is love. The main items that consume your income are housing, healthcare, education, food, and energy. Do you think there is no inflation? Once this permeates into the markets and if there is a global fear, the Fed will be forced to raise rates or face a crashing dollar. They have come out publicly many times that their goal is to have a stable dollar. Trying not to sound like the "Architect" in the Matrix, Ergo the housing market is done.


Insiders have cashed their chips. Many in the public are looking at yesterday trying to predict tomorrow. This upcoming recession will undress the ability of Americans to cut back in the face of a contracting economy. Do you think this is going to happen?
 
U.S. home prices fall for first time in 15 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-home-prices-falling-first/story.aspx?guid=%7B59A3F5AF%2DF0CD%2D4605%2D96D0%2D7AB199CEC681%7D&dist=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell 1.4% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the first year-over-year decline since 1991, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. A year ago, home prices were rising at an 11.5% pace. The 10-city price index fell 1.9% year-on-year through March, while the 20-city index dropped 1.4%. Thirteen of 20 cities have seen falling prices in the past year, led by Detroit and San Diego. Home prices rose 10% in Seattle. The national decline "is reaffirmation of the pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market," said Robert Shiller, chief economist for MacroMarkets LLC, and co-inventor of the index.
But ... but ... but NAR data shows the median prices are rising for the past several months. :new_newbie:

:rof::rof::rof:
 
Home Construction Bust May Last Until 2011, U.S. Builders Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=aKQoeHb1MraI&refer=realestate

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- New home construction in the U.S. may take until 2011 to return to last year's level, said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders in Washington.


Monthly construction starts would need to jump by 21 percent to reach Seiders's benchmark for full recovery, which is 1.85 million. There were 1.53 million in April, the Commerce Department said. At the height of the five-year housing boom in January 2006, construction began on 2.29 million homes.


``We've fallen way below trend because we soared way above trend during boom times,'' Seiders said in an interview. ``The upswing will be relatively slow, unlike earlier cycles.''


The inventory of unsold homes is the largest since the Washington-based National Association of Realtors started counting them in 1999 and house prices have suffered the steepest drop since the Great Depression, according to the realtors' group. Defaults and foreclosures also may rise as about $650 billion of loans to subprime borrowers, those with poor or limited credit histories, reset at higher interest rates by 2009.


``We're still being hit pretty hard by the subprime-related mortgage market problem,'' Seiders said. ``One of the biggest unknowns right now is how serious the change on the mortgages side will be on home sales.''
 
Realtor data just does not add up to reality

http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/CaliforniaHousingReport_052707.html

The California Housing Report: Details In the Data Show A Broad-based Price Decline

Headline: “C.A.R. [California Association of Realtors] reports sales decrease 27.8 percent in April, median price of a home in California at $597,640, up 6.2 percent from year ago.” Then we also read, “Throughout the state inventory levels have increased to their highest levels in recent years…”

Price increase in the climate of declining sales and rising inventory? Something doesn’t add up.

The report does provide some clue: “Although the median price of a home in California continues to rise, this reflects the fall-off in sales in the lower-priced markets of the state…” The phenomenon mentioned in the last sentence is noteworthy and the gain in the “median price” reported for the state, as well as in some counties, masks the reality of broad-based price declines if one wanted to know what is happening to the price of the same home compared to last year or the past two years.

When it comes to any economic data series it is very important to keep in mind as to what is being measured and how. If ever there was truth in the adage – The Devil Is In the Details – what is happening to the home prices in California is a good substantiation of that. When things don’t add up it pays to look carefully. And I have.

I will endeavor to show that there are three factors that result in overstatement of the median price of resale homes because the characteristics of the median priced home are not the same as the median priced home sold a year, or two years, ago:

1. The size of the homes being sold recently is larger compared to those sold last year.

2. The area mixture of the homes sold recently is significantly different from those of the year ago whether we look within the state or within the counties where the median price shows YoY gains. The rapidly increasing gap between the Haves and Have-nots in the US shows up very clearly in the latest California home sales data.

3. The modernization (or home improvements in layman’s term) of the homes sold recently is significantly greater than that of year, or two years, ago.
 
The weakness in the housing sector is now spreading to the rest of the economy. Non-residential investment has been virtually flat the last two quarters and many state governments are now cutting back, since declining house prices has meant declining property tax revenue. Consumption alone has continued to grow at a healthy pace, keeping the economy moving forward in the last three quarters.


But consumption may now be slowing, as well. Reported job growth has been extremely weak in the last few months, and wages have not even kept pace with inflation. Workers have been especially hard hit by a large jump in gasoline prices that has taken tens of billions of dollars out of their pockets. Government data showed that retail sales declined in April, even before adjusting for inflation. With gas prices rising still further in May, it seems unlikely that there will be any rebound in consumption this month.


In short, the housing-driven recovery may finally have run out of steam. No one expected the extraordinary pace of housing construction and sales of 2002-2005 to persist, but in order to sustain growth as housing weakened, there had to be some other source of demand, presumably investment or net exports, that would fill the gap. At present, these sectors are providing very little help, as both have been nearly flat in the last two quarters.


The rise in gas prices is just the final straw that is likely to push the economy into a recession this year. In the months ahead, job growth is likely to stop altogether, setting the economy on the classic downward recession spiral in which declining employment leads to falling wage income, which in turn causes further declines in consumption and therefore more job loss. This recession will have the unusual feature that the weakness in the job market will likely have a direct impact on house sales and bubble inflated house prices, leading to further declines in consumption.


It is way too early to know how long this process will take to unravel and when the U.S. economy will get back on a healthy growth path. However, at this point, the immediate future of the U.S. economy does not look very good.
 
RE; New homes & existing homes

The Commerce Department data showed that sales of new homes jumped in the US, although prices fell. The data from the National Association of Realtors shows that sales of existing homes fell, although prices rose. Is there a relationship? Almost certainly, yes. The significant development there was that the median price of a new home fell below that of an existing home. Monthly price data for both new and existing homes goes back to 1975. In that period, there is only one brief period - from September 1981 to February 1982 (and only in three of those six months) - when prices of new homes were lower than those of existing homes. Are we about to enter into a more pronounced economic downturn?

3.jpg


Notice in the chart below that even as the backlog of new homes for sale dropped, the backlog of existing homes for sale is now over 8 months and rising.


4.jpg



It is one thing for builders to slash house prices in order to deplete their overhang of unsold homes. They may lose money or at the very least make smaller profits on those houses; but they can then begin to build and sell again. But it is a different thing when we talk about existing homes. If the owners do not get the price they hope for, their capacity to buy another (bigger?) home will be impaired and, above all, their enthusiasm to go out and spend will be diminished. But homeowners who need to sell cannot really afford to hang in there month after month without a deal. If homeowners want to sell, they will have to accept lower prices.

A Wall Street firm reported in May that the foreclosure "shock cone" is widening: while total foreclosures, at all stages, are up 60-70% over last year so far, foreclosure notices - the front end of the process, when a mortgage is typically 90 days delinquent - are 127% higher so far than in 2006. It said that foreclosed homes being resold by banks or lenders are hitting the housing market with an average price drop of 30% nationally.

With an even larger backlog of homes, it is likely that existing home prices are going to have to drop at least in line with new homes. A 10% drop in existing home prices will be a shock to many recent home buyers, and mean even more foreclosures as ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) re-set to much higher prices. A 10% drop means than most of these owners will be "under water" in terms of the value of their homes to their loans. This will mean that an ever-increasing number of homeowners will not be able to keep their homes. This large overhang of homes coming onto the market from foreclosure is going to last for at least a year, as the foreclosures coming onto the market today are from defaults of last year.

The latest data from the housing front is hardly encouraging. It portends declining homes prices and consumer spending is likely to continue to deflate along with home prices.
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Nice charts & plenty of data.Market data on that lengthy chart showed new homes prices topping/dropping. New homes prices during that lengthy uptrend time period are much more jagged/rough, making it easier to lose money.
 
It is way too early to know how long this process will take to unravel and when the U.S. economy will get back on a healthy growth path. However, at this point, the immediate future of the U.S. economy does not look very good.

While I generally agree with this, I think that most of the post is somewhat myopic and overblown, with way too much emphasis on the importance of housing. Some of Bernacke's comments in April are still appropriate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/28/business/28econ.html?ex=1303876800&en=faa46c61ebbc072f&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

The industries leading the way are ones that have been receiving far less attention than cars or real estate, though they have been adding thousands of new workers each month. In the last year, hospitals, doctors' offices and other health care employers have created almost 300,000 jobs; restaurants have added 230,000; and local governments — including schools — have added 170,000.
Still, the BLS figures are somewhat troubling.

http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm

Interestingly, the consumer comfort index, while down in recent weeks, is up from this time last year.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/business/economy/index.html

And, of course, you wouldn't expect a sitting president to say that the economy is tanking:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/economy/index.html

And, at least some people think that equities are still good investments, in spite of the DOW being at an all time high

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/11/03/the-u-s-stock-market-five-reasons-2007-is-looking-like-1995/

I'm not one of them. At least not for the short term. I sold off my short term equity investments last month (should have waited for the high if I had as much foresight and hindsight).
 
Subprime Fiasco Exposes Manipulation by Mortgage Brokerages

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8VFwgtdQ9FM&refer=exclusive

After years of easy profits, a chain reaction of delinquency, default and foreclosure has ripped through the subprime mortgage industry, which originated $722 billion of loans last year.

Lenders such as Irvine, California-based New Century Financial Corp.; Orange, California-based ACC Capital Holdings Inc.; GMAC LLC's Residential Capital home lending unit; and General Electric Co.'s WMC Mortgage Corp. division have slashed more than 5,000 jobs. On May 22, Santa Monica-based Fremont General Corp., whose loans helped trigger the subprime crisis, agreed to sell its commercial real- estate unit for $1.9 billion.


The upheaval in Orange County, home of Disneyland and birthplace of Richard Nixon, has sent shockwaves throughout the financial world.


Brokers are merely the first link in a chain stretching from mortgage companies, which originate loans; to wholesale lenders, which bundle them together; to Wall Street banks, which package the bundles into securities; and finally to commercial banks, hedge funds and pension funds, which buy these investments.

The pain has only just begun. As home prices sink and mortgage defaults climb, bond investors who financed the U.S. housing boom stand to lose as much as $75 billion on securities backed by subprime mortgages, according to Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co.


Companies from Detroit-based General Motors Corp. to Zurich-based UBS AG have fallen into the subprime sinkhole.


At GM, profit plunged 90 percent during the first three months of 2007 because of mortgage losses at its 49 percent-owned GMAC finance company.


Swiss banking giant UBS said in May that it would shut its Dillon Read Capital Management arm after the hedge fund manager lost 150 million Swiss francs ($123 million) in the first quarter, partly on subprime investments.


Subprime originations fell 10.3 percent to $722 billion in 2006 from a record $805 billion in 2005, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Credit Suisse predicts a 40-60 percent slide this year.


The party is over in Orange County. These days, Secured Funding's once-buzzing office building in Costa Mesa, near John Wayne Airport, is gutted.

However brokers snared customers, lenders in California typically sold the loans to big banks or Wall Street firms. Under U.S. law, investors who buy mortgages or securities backed by them are typically not susceptible to lawsuits alleging fraud on the part of brokers.


Such protection partly explains why the U.S. mortgage-backed- securities market has ballooned. The market more than tripled since 2000; $2.4 trillion of MBSs were issued last year, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York. Last year was the first time more than half of the securities issued were backed by subprime and other nonconforming loans, according to the trade group.


``The market is driven by volume and passing along the risks associated with it,'' says Paul Leonard, director of the California office of the Center for Responsible Lending, a Durham, North Carolina- based consumer advocacy group. ``With the appetite of the secondary market, neither brokers nor originators had much accountability.''

In California, which accounts for about 40 percent of subprime borrowing in the U.S., no one even knows how many people are originating loans, according to an October 2006 report by the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. That's because while the state licenses individual mortgage brokers, anyone can work for a big lender under the umbrella of a single corporate license. The group estimated that a minimum of 600,000 people were peddling loans in the state last year.


``In other words, the corporation can hire a loan originator right off the street and have them originating loans that day without any education, licensing or individual accountability,'' the report said.
 
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