Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Big ole Boy]

A sleeping giant of non-end users in the $300,000 and up market in North Florida .....

bunch of buyers with 3 year holding horizons .....

..... now South Florida can't migrate ... with inventories skyrocketing .....

..... daily price reduction starting .....

..... houses being unfinished by builders ......

..... gates with lots ..... but no activity ......

.... no-end users for these big mortgages .......

 

[john snyder]

If only Michael Moore would produce/direct a documentary on the mortgage biz. I think the air that is let out of the housing market would increase the noise volume to a high pitch irritating squeal. ( the ballon noise that is - not Michael's commentary)

There is 10% fluff for concessions, 10% oversupply and 33% bad loan people out there.

john

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

That leaves 47% backed by inflated appraisals by Skippy...

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Housing Bubble Bursts, Ruination Begins

Housing Bubble Bursts, Ruination Begins (by William Norman Grigg)
by William Norman Grigg
June 12, 2006

"Homeowners who thought the days of low interest rates and skyrocketing house prices would last forever are getting caught with big debts and, in some cases, sinking home values," reported Money News on May 1.


According to James J. Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac: “Foreclosures have now increased in four consecutive quarters and are on track to go above 1.2 million in 2006, which would push the nation’s annual foreclosure rate to more than 1% of U.S. households.”

Rising interest rates, higher costs of living, and mushrooming foreclosures are having the expected impact on the real estate, home-building, and mortgage markets. “Nearly a year after the sale of homes peaked … inventories of unsold homes have grown, in some markets doubling,” reported the May 9 New York Times. Lenders are also facing tougher times. Ameriquest mortgage company closed all 229 of its retail branches and laid off approximately 3,800 employees as a result of “a steep decline in its lending volume,” reported the May 6 Los Angeles Times. “Competitors such as Saxon Mortgage … and ECC Corp” have also closed offices and laid off staff, notes the paper.

 

[Dee Dee]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060612/market_spotlight_housing_prices.html?.v=2

The national median existing home price was $223,000 in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. While that was a 4.2 percent increase from April 2005, the organization predicts that prices this year will rise only 0.8 percent. Others aren't so sure they'll rise at all.

Wasn't the NAR just saying a few months ago that they expected a 5-7% rise in prices this year?

I'm starting to wonder if there's anyone who is stupid enough to believe anything that the NAR says or predicts anymore.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Housing Index Down 23%

World Equity Markets Plunge After Latest Hindenburg Omen - More Decline to Come?

In the United States, while all the major averages are down sharply, below we see the Housing Index has crashed, down 23.3 percent.

Is there a bottom?

 

[Mike Simpson]

Re-mark-able!

Roger: "That sucks. I'm probably on double secret probation myself. I think I will convert to just reading now and then and observe the narrowing of views due to the reduction in the gene pool."

That's funny Roger, but if you notice...the narrowing of views is exactly what's taken place since about page 48/49. Crusaders are so caustic & antagonistic...they chase off anybody with an opposing viewpoint. It's become a one sided diatribe with the worst of the worst feeding off each other (some of this borders on fanaticism).

AND TALK ABOUT SPIN! In addition to getting nastier & nastier with their attacks on anyone not in step with their bubbliastical read of the markets...they appear giddy every time the market dips somewhere, foreclosures increase, or they're able to dig up some negative news story of impending disaster.

Have we ever once seen The Usual Suspects post something positive about the Housing Markets? If anyone is able to resurrect a positive post by The Bishops of Bubble...I submit that it'll take you quite sometime. IF (and that's a big IF) someone can come up with a positive story...it'll be a mighty exception to the perpetual rule.

Positive stories are available for anyone who wishes to find them. I'll see your Las Vegas and raise you Seattle. I've a Houston to your San Diego, or Dallas to your New York. How's bout Atlanta compared to areas of Florida! For the record...we continue to see home prices increasing & MOST economist predict double digit appreciation in this region (of course I'm sure one of our resident Boo Birds can find an alternate viewpoint if they look hard enough).

Roger: "Maybe turn in a crusader or two just for sport Naaaaaa."

Ya know...funny you should mention that. Wonder how a Realtor bashing Realtor/Appraiser would feel about having links forwarded to their respective boards of some of their more audacious posts?

-Mike

Jack Nicholson from the movie Wolf: "The worm has turned & he's packin an Uzi!"

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Narrowing of Views

Some people don't like to hear or read what is contrary to their thinking or opinions. The trouble with that, they have to switch the TV channel or radio channel or look the other way when reading a newspaper or skip the links to Internet websites or ... whatever, just to reinforce their perception of reality.

The next part of that myopic reality is to complain about it. There is just too much one sidedness, not enough balance or equal quantity of postings giving opposing views, opposing opinions or opposing data. :new_smile-l:

 

[Steve Owen]

Lenders are also facing tougher times. Ameriquest mortgage company closed all 229 of its retail branches and laid off approximately 3,800 employees as a result of “a steep decline in its lending volume,” reported the May 6 Los Angeles Times.

Or maybe the market finally figured out their obvious and dishonest practices... that would certainly cause a decline in volume. (I don't know anything about the other two mentioned.)

Mike, my last two or three posts on this thread have been to indicate that there is little or no indication of decline in my market (yet). No one has attacked me for it. On the other hand, the last couple of links posted have been pretty mundane (with the exception of Randolph's graphs)... it would be nice to see some of that positive information.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

U.S. May core CPI rises 0.3% on higher shelter costs

U.S. May core CPI rises 0.3% on higher shelter costs

By Rex Nutting
Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Jun 14, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. core inflation increased 0.3% for the third month in a row in May, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates. The consumer price index increased 0.4% in May, the Labor Department said Wednesday, led by higher energy and shelter costs. The increase matched expectations. Core prices - which exclude volatile food and energy costs - increased 0.3%, ahead of the 0.2% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The core rate was boosted by a 0.6% gain in owners' equivalent rent, which accounts for nearly one-fourth of the CPI. In the past year, the CPI has risen 4.2%. The core CPI has risen 2.4%, the fastest year-over-year growth since February 2005.