How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[George Hatch]

The last time around that was the explanation for the "Soft Landing". That line of thinking lasted among the market bulls for about 9 months before it became apparent the market wasn't going to remain static for any length of time.

But that was what happened the last time around. They say that this time is different. We'll see how that works out.

 

[timd354]

There doesn't need to be a decline to correct. You can correct through time just by being stable.

That is true, but it is pretty rare that a market is exactly flat or stable for any amount of time...usually markets tend to go in one direction or the other

 

[RCA]

1. We could be headed for a trade war. We have to have our own steel production and that requires tariffs. Trump says he is willing to completely do away with tariffs - but that will never happen. Countries need tariffs to protect those industries that they deem necessary for national well-being - even if they are less efficient on the global stage. So, we will do whatever is necessary to get steel production rolling again. If the EU, China, et al eliminate their tariffs on steel and that works, then we may do the same. But we won't, if we still need tariffs to keep the industry going. Same for anything else we deem necessary for national defence.

2. But the logic for #1 is the same for many other countries. Thus a trade war is almost inevitable.

3. When the trade war starts, it will have repercussions, as all wars do. That will likely cause a downturn in the markets.

4. It's a phase we most likely will have to go through. But we can weather it.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

The rate of non-wage inflation has overtaken the rate of wage inflation. Couple that with the interest rate increases the FED has in mind, those two elements will squeeze the consumer even with a fix rate mortgage. More mortgages are being made with minimal down payments and lower credit scores because those that could buy homes at lower interest rates, with higher credit scores, at lower prices, already have. That leaves the marginal buyer with lower credit scores with higher interest rates and higher prices. Those are the potential mortgages that will default because incomes are not keeping pace with inflation.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

All eyes on the Fed today. They will hike by 25bp to 2% – the 6th hike in 7 quarters.

That brings the real interest rates (inflation adjusted) to a negative 0.7%.

 

[Mike Garrett RAA]

I've lived through enough of the cycles so that I don't worry about it. We get business when the market is good and we get foreclosure business when the market is bad. How many of you remember the 70s when the mortgage rate was 18%? Sure makes 4 or 5% seem small.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Mortgage applications decline due to rising interest rates


Mortgage lenders struggle as demand for mainstream loans falters


Rising rates put U.S. homebuilders and investors in a spot

The Fed’s rate hike and its signal of two more increases to come this year will only add to investors’ worry that the U.S. housing market is getting too expensive.http://link.email.nationalmortgagen...NWQ1NTZkMTc/52e9a69ec16bcfa46f1c8dbaC532aaa67

What did they expect? Demand for mortgages will rise with increased interest rates?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

HomeStreet cutting more mortgage jobs, closing 18 lending centers

 

[Tom Woolford]

One REO order is meaningless in the overall scheme of things. While the default rate has been very low for new originations since 2010, it has not been zero. I don't know whether or not there will be a crash in the future, although I am pretty sure there will be some sort of market correction if and when interest rates rise substantially, however, the exact timing of when any coming market correction will occur and the size of the correction is very, very difficult to predict

How about 2 in 10 days after none for 8 years. I got another one yesterday. Bear in mind I only work 3 zip codes.

 

[timd354]

How about 2 in 10 days after none for 8 years. I got another one yesterday. Bear in mind I only work 3 zip codes.

2 orders is not a large enough sample to provide any sort of reasonable trend analysis. Maybe it is the start of some sort of trend, maybe these two orders are outliers, maybe these are two properties from years ago that are still working there way through FL's absurdly slow and bad foreclosure process (which is one of the worst 3 in the nation), or maybe there is some sort of issue local to your three zip codes, who knows from such a small amount of data.