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How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

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Could age be a factor....
Retired vs. working age....
You didn't move from CA until you reached typical retirement age, correct?

As soon as I can, I'm moving out of the state.
The reason I haven't moved sooner is simple: For my business model, to replace the opportunities I have where I live (San Francisco Bay Area), I'd have to move to a similar, high-density urban/metropolitan area with the same transaction-demographics. So, you'd be talking L.A. (been there, done that), New York, Miami, Houston, and maybe Chicago.
However, if I were a bank staffer and had the opportunity to move out-of-state, I'd take it up in a heartbeat.
Except for the year I lived in Japan as a kid, I've been a life-long Californian.

That's me. If I were in a profession where I could migrate out without sacrificing the business opportunities (if I were a healthcare professional, let's say), I'd be gone in a heartbeat.

It stands to reason that if someone is employment/career-dependent on entities or their dynamics that exist in California, one is going to be hard pressed to leave. But that "pressure" is more applicable to people in my situation; owned my home for 30 years and it would be nearly impossible for me to buy back into my house/my neighborhood and difficult to duplicate what I have here. For younger persons without that anchor, moving would be an option. For those who can lateral out (medical profession), they'll likely get an immediate benefit from selling their home (if they own) in the high-priced markets we live in and buying a replacement in wherever they are going. For those who are ready to retire or scale-down, moving to a more affordable area is very attractive; they can cash-out now (if they are a homeowner and haven't leveraged their property to the hilt) and likely buy a substitute somewhere else with money to spare.

The decision-factors for an individual or household to move out of state are not much different than those of a business entity. The scale is obviously different and the timing of such a move may be restricted due to certain obligations (long-term leases, for example). And, depending on my workforce-requirements in regard to skill set and experience, it might not be financially feasible to relocate (I cannot take enough of my current workforce with me and the ramp-up time to replace the ones I cannot take is too long).
We are not like the Europeans, who traditionally were not that mobile (a cultural thing, not a dismissive comment). We have always been a mobile society. Cost of living has always been a factor. I don't think state taxes were that much of a consequence as short as 30-40 years ago (and state politics even less so); so I could move to a different neighborhood if I was getting priced out of my current neighborhood and still have the same employment options with the same employer-pool. Now, moving to a different neighborhood is likely not going to solve my cost-of-living challenges. When I have to move out of the area such that I am effectively leaving my current employment opportunities, I'm going to look hard at making the move that significantly reduces my costs (housing, taxes, gas, etc.); for many Californians like myself, exiting California can be an attractive option.
 
As soon as I can, I'm moving out of the state.
The reason I haven't moved sooner is simple: For my business model, to replace the opportunities I have where I live (San Francisco Bay Area), I'd have to move to a similar, high-density urban/metropolitan area with the same transaction-demographics. So, you'd be talking L.A. (been there, done that), New York, Miami, Houston, and maybe Chicago.
However, if I were a bank staffer and had the opportunity to move out-of-state, I'd take it up in a heartbeat.
Except for the year I lived in Japan as a kid, I've been a life-long Californian.

That's me. If I were in a profession where I could migrate out without sacrificing the business opportunities (if I were a healthcare professional, let's say), I'd be gone in a heartbeat.

It stands to reason that if someone is employment/career-dependent on entities or their dynamics that exist in California, one is going to be hard pressed to leave. But that "pressure" is more applicable to people in my situation; owned my home for 30 years and it would be nearly impossible for me to buy back into my house/my neighborhood and difficult to duplicate what I have here. For younger persons without that anchor, moving would be an option. For those who can lateral out (medical profession), they'll likely get an immediate benefit from selling their home (if they own) in the high-priced markets we live in and buying a replacement in wherever they are going. For those who are ready to retire or scale-down, moving to a more affordable area is very attractive; they can cash-out now (if they are a homeowner and haven't leveraged their property to the hilt) and likely buy a substitute somewhere else with money to spare.

The decision-factors for an individual or household to move out of state are not much different than those of a business entity. The scale is obviously different and the timing of such a move may be restricted due to certain obligations (long-term leases, for example). And, depending on my workforce-requirements in regard to skill set and experience, it might not be financially feasible to relocate (I cannot take enough of my current workforce with me and the ramp-up time to replace the ones I cannot take is too long).
We are not like the Europeans, who traditionally were not that mobile (a cultural thing, not a dismissive comment). We have always been a mobile society. Cost of living has always been a factor. I don't think state taxes were that much of a consequence as short as 30-40 years ago (and state politics even less so); so I could move to a different neighborhood if I was getting priced out of my current neighborhood and still have the same employment options with the same employer-pool. Now, moving to a different neighborhood is likely not going to solve my cost-of-living challenges. When I have to move out of the area such that I am effectively leaving my current employment opportunities, I'm going to look hard at making the move that significantly reduces my costs (housing, taxes, gas, etc.); for many Californians like myself, exiting California can be an attractive option.

Great points all....

Yet, at the end of the day...
Your opening sentence will, in all likelihood, be the primary factor for the majority of people....

"As soon as I can, I'm moving out of the state."
 
Could age be a factor....
Retired vs. working age....
You didn't move from CA until you reached typical retirement age, correct?

Yes, I was working and I quit January 1, 2017. I was 70 years old. I now take home more money after tax than when I was working in California.

The folks moving from New York to Florida are hedge fund managers, billionaires. Not retirees.
 
Yes, I was working and I quit January 1, 2017. I was 70 years old. I now take home more money after tax than when I was working in California.

The folks moving from New York to Florida are hedge fund managers, billionaires. Not retirees.

"A lifelong Miami resident, Ackles has seen the number of investment firms in the area grow for a long time, but said that the financial services industry in south Florida is still in its "toddler phase." The recent influx will bring the community into its "tweens" in a few years.


"It's not just access to capital or great taxes," Ackles said, "it's a great place to live.""

It's good to know...
 
dollar%20funding%20withdrawal.jpg


Markets are already vulnerable, as the Fed is pulling back liquidity and raising rates, making cash scarcer and more attractive - reversing the easy liquidity and 0% cash rate that helped push money out of the risk curve over the course of the expansion. The danger to assets from the shift in liquidity and the building late-cycle dynamics is compounded by the fact that financial assets are pricing in a Goldilocks scenario of sustained strength, with little chance of either a slump or an overheating as the Fed continues its tightening cycle over the next year and a half.
 
SMFI_1.png



The Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) is a leading-indicator in markets. That means when the SMFI drops sharply, usually the equity markets are right behind it.

And we haven’t seen the SMFI drop this much since the Great Recession of 2008 and the 2001 Recession.
 
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