He never actually said this but I do suspect he is either a professor or more likely a associate professor of mathematics at some college or university in california.I wish it were otherwise but that seems to be the case. Recipe seeks ingredients. Really, that's the same problem that appraisers spend most of their time trying to solve. How to obtain and sift through the relevant data in order to get apples that are as similar as possible to our subject apple. 95% of out time/effort is going to obtaining and sifting through and wrangling the data and importing into the report, with the last 5% of our time and effort going into refining that range of value indicators from the direct comparables via adjustments. If that amount of time even comes out to 5%
I daresay it isn't just the GSEs that aspire to an AVM that can outperform appraisers as a group on most if not all appraisal assignments. Most lenders would aspire to it, too. They just don't handle as many transactions (and the specifics of those properties) as do the GSEs. Only the GSEs are in a position to aggregate the specifics of these properties and transactions.
If we take this play to its logical conclusion it is conceivable that the GSE usage of appraiser data in their AVM might end up being just an interim step for a few years while they build their own database of PDR info. Even to the extent the PDR data has errors attributable to the CubiCasa apps - which will continue to be refined - the types and rates of those errors will be consistent in nature and therefore more manageable in the analyses which follow.
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And we're not really even touching upon the possibilities with AI. Not most of us, anyway. But Bert is a tech-forward guy and he seems to be working on it.
Bert already routinely goes to AI to get a written summary of the info on various topics he posts on. The AI aggregates information from various sources and summarizes it. Bert then uses the AI output to supplement his own reasoning and writing. The way Bert has been using it demonstrates that an AI is already capable of writing up a usable neighborhood, site or improvements summary, or analyzing broker comments from an MLS listing so long as it had access to all the various sources of information it takes to perform such analyses.
I have long thought that all the action in the appraisal is in aggregating the data from various sources and breaking the dominant attributes down to a usable "uniform" scale of some sort. Not in fretting over the precision of fireplace adjustments. IMO the only thing holding the AVMs back has been the inconsistent availability and detail in the data.
Actually, if Bert isn't already working with the data aggregation angle idea then perhaps he should be. Somebody is going to do it and such an app will be more savvy to SFR issues if it's an SFR appraiser doing it. IMO.
That they are journalist does not give them the authority - the authority came from journalists fact-checking their info and developing sources, to teh extent that journalists have been jailed for protecting source and killed fo their writings uncovering corruption or crimeThe way I see it, people form their own opinions about credibility. I use this example a lot, but everyone knows what the credibility factor is for the supermarket tabloids. They still sell but most people don't take any of it seriously because they know better. The disinformation game will eventually teach the public to refrain from jumping to conclusions about the credibility of all content coming in from new-to-them sources.
The reason the journalists are pissed off right now is because they relied too much on the appeal to authority (we're journalists so that makes us an authoritative voice).
me just as detrimental to the public's perception of the journalism ethics as has the lie by commission. And that factor is totally their own fault, wrought by their own hand. You can complain about the bots but IRL the one-g the other way.
^^^^^ This..... is what was conveyed to me through my mentor doing these hybrids. What you save in driving and inspecting time is gobbled up in digging, analyzing, verifying....and after all that, you're still unsure. Because you didn't inspect the subject, you didn't inspect the comps curbside. Thus, the only plausible solution would be to be on the conservative side on your opinion of value.the data itself was fine, but not having seen or walked the property it took me far longer to analyze the exhibits and there was no way to know if the value truly reflected the positives or negatives of the property as I might have first hand observed them.
Fine them!In Ohio, it is illegal to perform a home inspection for compensation without a license. This includes any valuable consideration, but does not apply if the inspector is not being compensated in any way. However, the purchase contract may require a licensed inspector, in which case the buyer would need to remove that requirement from their offer.
Penalties for unlicensed home inspectors in Ohio include: a fine of up to $500 per violation per day and criminal penalties.
The process to become a licensed home inspector in Ohio includes:
- Completing an application form
- Getting a supervisor's signature
- Getting a notary seal
- Mailing the application, application fee, and education certificates to the Division of Real Estate & Professional Licensing
- Completing a background check through the Ohio State Police
And would not our due diligence suggest we should have uncovered any errors, or at least some errors? And, how many mistakes could be made by the Property inspector before we have zero confidence in any of it.? And for all the work uncovering the fraud, do we get paid? Of course, we don't get paid.If someone else makes an error then they are the ones who made it.
The other vulnerability of the hybrids and bifurcated is the less scrupulous appraisers /AMC staff appraisers can appraise from their desktop in far-off areas where they lack geo competency. As it is now, the fact that most assignments require the appraiser to inspect at least keeps the less scrupulous within a reasonable area of geo competence.And would not our due diligence suggest we should have uncovered any errors, or at least some errors? And, how many mistakes could be made by the Property inspector before we have zero confidence in any of it.? And for all the work uncovering the fraud, do we get paid? Of course, we don't get paid.
Well...competence is competence, and I have seen over the years way too many people from a given area whose competence in their own backyard is questionable. Certainly, the issue is broader than mere geography. Who will provide the best appraisal for a large urban mall? The local CG or the appraiser who lives in Florida and does only large urban malls nationwide? Ditto Golf courses, resorts, airports, mega-warehouses, etc.I predict a post lecturing on how geo competence is not necessary for a credible appraisal lol.