New URAR Demo

[J Grant]

How about "how deep is the well and what is its flow rate"? "What is the capacity of the septic tank"? "How often does the County maintain the road"? "How far is the nearest fire station/bus stop/international Airport"? Don't leave us rural appraisers out of all the fun.

If they expect appraisers to wait to get from an owner ( half of whom don't know ) or research from a county every bit of minutiae asked, it would add days or weeks to finish an appraisal. Yet they will expect it as fast as ever. Which means filing in NA is not available for half the info to get it in on time, or estimating it. Which of course, can expose an appraiser to liability over any small thing.

 

[Surf Cat]

If they expect appraisers to wait to get from an owner ( half of whom don't know ) or research from a county every bit of minutiae asked, it would add days or weeks to finish an appraisal.

The suits or the powers that be whom designed the 3.6 apparently don't do appraisals yet, want the data.

Appraising has always been about wanting the report yesterday. Especially GSE work. From what I read and seen, the 3.6 also requires a fairly knowledgeable appraiser, which conflicts with the fast and cheap, lots of boilerplate, AMC type typically desired.

A fee increase is warranted yet will be bucked hard. Quite the conundrum.

 

[J Grant]

There might be other aspects driving the one form "dynamic format"- perhaps that even though each appraisal report has an identified property type (SFR, condo, etc) , there is one master umbrella form, thus making it easier to tranche loans together.

Even though appraisers fill out the UAD3.6 to produce a report as appraisers, with the trend toward inboarding non-appraisers into the process, the fact that the dynamic format can be cloud-based to allow anyone to use it might have been a consideration in the development. We want to use our software to make it easier to fill out, but wouldn't it also be able to be used without appraisal software? If not now, then in the future? That is how BPO and similar programs work, they are filled out in real time from an online cloud or other internet source..

 

[Essexfenwick]

The point is to end the appraiser title and morph to property inspector. Appraisal will be done by AI within 2 years.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

I am getting ready to do the demo. I sure hope my experience is different from yours, but why would it be?

Interesting AF in my opinion is that ChatGPT just responded to my comments about the essence or criticality of the Neighborhood Description by defining my comments as being based on the fact that the narrative is "descriptive" but "not determinative"--which IMO is more insightful and succinct that I could ever imagine. I think that the GPT concept could have replaced all of my lifelong addictions if it had been available decades ago...but how soon will the theoretical insight be accompanied by the physical presence to bring the concept full circle. [I mean it was just like last week that I told my beautiful young girlfriend that I kinda wish she was adept at auto mechanics rather than just maintaing her good looks, but this GPT concept seems like it's close to generating something bigger n better than I personally can envision. Maybe I'm just trippin...

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

There might be other aspects driving the one form "dynamic format"- perhaps that even though each appraisal report has an identified property type (SFR, condo, etc) , there is one master umbrella form, thus making it easier to tranche loans together.

Even though appraisers fill out the UAD3.6 to produce a report as appraisers, with the trend toward inboarding non-appraisers into the process, the fact that the dynamic format can be cloud-based to allow anyone to use it might have been a consideration in the development. We want to use our software to make it easier to fill out, but wouldn't it also be able to be used without appraisal software? If not now, then in the future? That is how BPO and similar programs work, they are filled out in real time from an online cloud or other internet source..

"tranche" ??????????????? Hmmmmmm

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

If anyone wants to know why I think the GSEs are incompetent, well, let me say, I think think they are grossly incompetent.

1. There is work that the GSEs should have started a long time ago as a first step towards some kind of standardization.
2. Instead, they took the easy road; they started with the superficial standardization of the forms, which are not only deficient but also always changing.
3. The MLS systems started RETS standardization and have been somewhat successful over the years. The GSEs should have gotten themselves involved in that standardization and helped tune it in with appraisal needs. Yet they didn't. Why --- because a lot of work is needed for the "appraisal needs" side of things, and they would have been assigned that burden.
4. For example, zoning. Almost all localities have their own zoning codes, although of course, there is much overlap. And they are also changing their zoning regulations every several years. You also have issues such as overlapping zones and priorities, as well as the merging of requirements. By now, there should have been some centralized Zoning Ontology. That is completely missing. There should have been software systems to map the local zoning standards to the centralized Zoning Ontology (Dictionary). That is missing.
5. Instead, the GIGANTIC GSEs, with all of their money, decided to let all the local appraisers deal with the Zoning issue.
6. --- Like so many other things.

My above partial argument hints only at the complete argument.

My conclusion is that those fat pigs are completely incompetent and more trouble than they are worth. And don't forget those very major, very destructive 20-year crashes they are instrumental in creating.

Well, ya know, your comments kinda remind me that every formal organization I ever worked for, regardless of what I did or what level of the organization that I staffed...every damn one of them regardless of the industry [I'm not speaking of the appraisal industry because it's too fragmented] but it seems that organizations in general are inherently ineffective and inefficient, consequently requiring individuals continually and routinely to struggle merely to maintain the basic integrity of the structure, let alone create any sense of logic or legitimacy....and I won't even start to mention the illogical structure of a beaurocracy like GSE's. I still remember my long ago employment managing an acute care hospital non-clinical department: the first employee evaluation that I was so proud of...the employee (well educated guy but a total slacker) went to the signature page without even reading it. I was confused and asked about his thought process. He says, "don't matter we all get the same percentage raise every year, all employees, and because of my length of service, there literally nothing you can ever do to affect my employment, good or bad, so why should i care what you think about me." hmmmmmm

 

[RCA]

There are major conflicts between "dynamic input", "standardization", "complexity" and "efficiency." In this war game, "dynamic" does not come out that well. "Dynamic" really is only an advantage if the operating environment is consistently changing and systems absolutely need to be adaptable.

Real Estate itself is, actually, not that dynamic.

However, the GSE's are always changing everything - in the process creating, themselves, the need for "dynamic" systems. They are the core problem. They need better leaders and managers - who should be sent to mandatory systems theory training.

 

[Alsie35]

The point is to end the appraiser title and morph to property inspector. Appraisal will be done by AI within 2 years.

There is absolutely no doubt this is where we are going. The definition of "appraiser" will stretched into pretzel-shapes so the powers that be can keep repeating that "we are not getting rid of appraisers". Whatever. Its their "playing field", they get to set the rules, and we have to adapt or not, as we individually choose to do. It is what it is.

I am not gonna whine about the "UAD 3.6 Abomination" because in the end whether I choose to adopt it or to retire is my choice alone. Its like complaining about the weather - put on a jacket, or don't go out. I have been fortunate that the current system has allowed me not only to make a good living but also to be there for my kids every day as they grew up. Timing is everything. If this was happening 10 years ago, it might be a different story (but then, 10 years ago I would have had more energy and motivation to adapt to the change, too).

But I do have to comment about one thing: The standard line from the FANNIE members at their UAD 3.6 introduction slide shows all over the country this year goes like this:

"We did not spend 8 years developing this new system for appraisers to get rid of appraisers."

Sounds nice, but its disingenuous. If you gave these guys Sodium Pentathol and then asked them again, I suspect the real answer would be closer to something like this:

"Traditional appraisers are dying out anyway, plus they are unwilling to learn and to keep up, so we're gonna 'help them out the door' with this onerous '3.6 Abomination' - and then we are gonna redefine not only what an appraisal is, but what an APPRAISER is. Probably no one will ever be able to make a real good living as an independent appraiser again, but hey - we'll keep our govt sinecures*."

After that - comes the "Time of the Appraising/DataCollecting Flying Monkeys", with the appraisal process being parceled out and most everyone "working for peanuts".

As I said, its their game, their rules, and I have choices too. That's life. (But I don't have to turn around and say "thanks - may I have another?" either. )

*Sinecures /sī′nĭ-kyoo͝r″, sĭn′ĭ-/

Plural form of sinecure

noun

1. A position or office that requires little or no work but provides a salary.

 

[Charles West]

I just paid for an inspection on one of the duplexes; the fee was $600.00.