One woman's opinion.....and I agree

[Airstream]

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It's not like we have never seen oil move to a new range before. Before 2004 oil was in a range between $10 and $40 for 30 years.

Conversation over.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Looking at only the oil chart it is easy to come to the conclusion that the cause was the war on terror. It probably was one of the catalyst but at the same time, the dollar index declined from $120 in 2002 to $72 in 2008.

Thinking straight open = oil down, straight closed = oil up, is like a little kid playing checkers.

 

[Airstream]

Looking at only the oil chart it is easy to come to the conclusion that the cause was the war on terror. It probably was one of the catalyst but at the same time, the dollar index declined from $120 in 2002 to $72 in 2008.

Thinking straight open = oil down, straight closed = oil up, is like a little kid playing checkers.

Ok. You are officially ignored. What part of conversation over do you not get?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Ok. You are officially blocked.

lol

 

[Joe Flacco]

Ok. You are officially ignored. What part of conversation over do you not get?

Do you make cheese? What is your favorite cheese?

 

[soucat]

Real estate crash? I think this lady is goofy. The reasons for the previous real estate crash were foreclosures and bad paper mixed with good. That’s not going to happen. That doesn’t mean prices won’t go down. Already prices are not keeping up with inflation. So we already have some de-valuation in appreciation. Will there be a further correction? Probably. But it will be more localized and not a national crash. I expect in cities or regions that are becoming less popular due to overall cost of living those will see the biggest declines. In other areas, not necessarily. There still is a tight supply. The only way that changes is if there is a major building push or massive foreclosures or people moving out of an area for economic reasons. Thus this lady is goofy. She reminds me of the constant bears in the stock market. They are like Chicken Little that are constantly calling for a crash. Anyone that follows their advice would put their money in a mattress and build a bomb shelter. Goofy.

I agree with her, it is not looking good. I’m seeing lots of price cuts locally and nationally and inventory building. Agents are reporting limited buyer activity, homes are unaffordable, lots of lenders are loaning at 95% LTV, global tensions are mounting, the list could go on.

 

[Joe Flacco]

In my metro area, the number of detached homes for sale is still 35% below 2019 levels. Townhomes are back to 2019 levels and condos are 35% higher than 2019 levels.

 

[Airstream]

I agree with her, it is not looking good. I’m seeing lots of price cuts locally and nationally and inventory building. Agents are reporting limited buyer activity, homes are unaffordable, lots of lenders are loaning at 95% LTV, global tensions are mounting, the list could go on.

Price cuts are not a crash. And inventory will naturally build when the market returns to stable. But I still see a shortage in most of what I am appraising. Days on market are in the 50 to 60 range. Again there will be local adjustments in over heated markets. I just don’t see a 20% reduction in nationwide values happening, UNLESS interest rates climb dramatically. But inflation is going to have to be more than 3% a year. And I lived through all kinds of global tensions. This Iran thing is small potatoes compared to Vietnam, Korea, the cold war, etc. Over 50,000 soldiers died in Vietnam!! If we had those kinds of casualties today people would be flipping out. We didn’t see market crashes in real estate then. There have only been two times in the last 100 or so years when we have seen a crash in real estate; the great depression, and the great recession. Even during the Savings and Loan crisis it was regional and not national. Again this woman is seeing a crash…what I am predicting is not a crash but an unwinding. It will be a long drawn out decline in some markets (depending upon the local economy), and in other markets it will be flat prices until wages catch up to prices. How long that will be is unknown at this point. No one really knows. But when has this happened in the past? After the Carter years.
he Early 1980s Stagnation (1980–1987)

• 
  
• • What happened: High inflation and surging mortgage rates (which peaked near 18%) crushed purchasing power.
  • The impact: Nominal prices stayed somewhat sticky, but real (inflation-adjusted) home values dropped by roughly 13% to 17%.
  • Duration: It took more than seven years for inflation-adjusted prices to fully return to their previous peaks

 

[Joe Flacco]

Price cuts are not a crash. And inventory will naturally build when the market returns to stable. But I still see a shortage in most of what I am appraising. Days on market are in the 50 to 60 range. Again there will be local adjustments in over heated markets. I just don’t see a 20% reduction in nationwide values happening, UNLESS interest rates climb dramatically. But inflation is going to have to be more than 3% a year. And I lived through all kinds of global tensions. This Iran thing is small potatoes compared to Vietnam, Korea, the cold war, etc. Over 50,000 soldiers died in Vietnam!! If we had those kinds of casualties today people would be flipping out. We didn’t see market crashes in real estate then. There have only been two times in the last 100 or so years when we have seen a crash in real estate; the great depression, and the great recession. Even during the Savings and Loan crisis it was regional and not national. Again this woman is seeing a crash…what I am predicting is not a crash but an unwinding. It will be a long drawn out decline in some markets, and in other markets it will be flat prices until wages catch up to prices.

Bro. Do you make cheese or not?

 

[Essexfenwick]

$1.30 of gasoline price on average is taxes. State, Federal, local on the product and corporate for all extracting, refining and delivering.

Just take out the government gouging which is far higher than oil company profit and problem solved.

Makes you wonder how government could ever have a deficit. It operates like the mafia producing nothing and extorting every level of pay and commerce with threat of violence. It profits the most of any entity on guns, gambling, drugs and alcohol. The only area left is prostitution .. but it does tax onlyfans and ****ography..

Gas would be $2.70 a gallon during a war if the greediest and richest entity decides to drop taxes on gas during war .