Order Volume

[J Grant]

Some are saying this recession will begin in earnest later this year or next and not to expect improvement until after 2025. However, REOs will be the new Refi's if that is the cast. Face it. Prices are the worst on the affordability scale for a long time. Yes, 2008 was slow, but it picked up with REO work but the "market" did not improve for 3 years.

That volume of REO work will not be there this time, for a number of reasons.

 

[Zoe]

They have already dropped like 1% on 30 year mortgage rates. That is directly related to long term Treasury bond rates rising.

 

[alebrewer]

It is brutally slow in the D/FW area for mortgage related residential appraisal work. On a positive note, however, I really do believe the rate shock is causing some pent up demand, and that - once the Fed signals ANY intent to soften the rates, we'll see a pretty significant uptick in volume. Mind you - the long term outlook for residential mortgage related appraisal work doesn't look good. I don't think the agencies are intentionally killing our profession - I just think death of the profession is a consequence of their trajectory WRT leveraging technology.

 

[Zoe]

It shows confidence in US Treasury bonds by investors in investing in long term Treasury bonds.

That is what is driving long term mortgage rates down.

 

[Fernando]

It is brutally slow in the D/FW area for mortgage related residential appraisal work. On a positive note, however, I really do believe the rate shock is causing some pent up demand, and that - once the Fed signals ANY intent to soften the rates, we'll see a pretty significant uptick in volume. Mind you - the long term outlook for residential mortgage related appraisal work doesn't look good. I don't think the agencies are intentionally killing our profession - I just think death of the profession is a consequence of their trajectory WRT leveraging technology.

Residential market is still so much better than commercial market.
Wife wants to sell our commercial property but I said value has dropped so much and difficult for buyers to get commerical loan. Bad time to sell.

 

[The Bob]

The Fed doesn't control longer term rates that mortgages are based on. I think we are looking at a bifurcated market with longer term rates staying higher even when the Fed cuts rates. The 30y auction today was a train wreck. There is a ton of supply (bonds) coming to the market.

 

[J Grant]

I am not sophisticated enough to forecast bond markets -

I do know from experience that whenever RE stagnates for too long, they find a way to reduce interest rates to jump-start it again. Too much of our economy is tied in with housing to allow it to stagnate for too long - meaning longer than a year or two -

 

[Zoe]

Residential market is still so much better than commercial market.
Wife wants to sell our commercial property but I said value has dropped so much and difficult for buyers to get commerical loan. Bad time to sell.

It is hard to get a long term mortgage on commercial property unless you have a long term tenant like Walgreens.

You probably own your properties. But yes many commercial properties are hurting. Many are on short term mortgages. They are tied more to daily borrowing rates.....Fed funds rate.

 

[Tim Hicks (Texas)]

I have been in the DFW market for 30+ years. This is the slowest I have seen it in a long time. I have had more assignments canceled because the borrower backed out in the past month than I have had in the past five years. I read there were 3200 homes in default in DFW in the first six months of 2023, but I have had relatively few REO assignments.

 

[Fernando]

It is hard to get a long term mortgage on commercial property unless you have a long term tenant like Walgreens.

You probably own your properties. But yes many commercial properties are hurting. Many are on short term mortgages. They are tied more to daily borrowing rates.....Fed funds rate.

My commercial property is across street from vacant Walgreens. Walgreens rather sublease than keep open that store.
Paying employess, paying utilities, and loss from shoplifters cost more than just paying rent on a vacant unit.
Wished the store will be rented. It's an eyesore.