Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[J Grant]

Imo, an over-adjusted range to make it tighter is simply adjusting a higher sale or a lower sale for being higher or lower due to normal market variances and can confuse or mislead wrt the trend .

 

[alebrewer]

On u tube: Spark Spotlight: Linear and Non-Linear Time Adjustments

I just watched the final time trend video for Spark. It will do linear or non linear time adjustment. I have learned a bit from watching the video. There is a little more decision making to how you look at the trend line in a nonlinear way.

Which ever way you go, it will give you an addendum with the chart and explanation of each month % number.
Ok, this is perfect and takes about 1 minute with the adjustment & explanation automatically put into the report.

I tried the Spark adjustment tool - it was insanely wrong. It had a $300k time adjustment for a $200k sale...

 

[Tom D]

Which adjustment polinumeral did you use. There are options for monthly variances. One of the options seemed pretty good when i tried it. I mentioned the video because he explains the non linear options and their affect on monthly number. But we all have to show the why and how of getting the numbers. Waiting for fannie update, i think most are saying non linear because of the last fannie update. I understand the concept on non linear, but i don't know if and how much is needed for it to be accurate, especially with monthly variances.

 

[alebrewer]

Which adjustment polinumeral did you use. There are options for monthly variances. One of the options seemed pretty good when i tried it. I mentioned the video because he explains the non linear options and their affect on monthly number. But we all have to show the why and how of getting the numbers. Waiting for fannie update, i think most are saying non linear because of the last fannie update. I understand the concept on non linear, but i don't know if and how much is needed for it to be accurate, especially with monthly variances.

don't remember - will continue to play around with it, as I use Spark for my data transfer anyway. I don't think they 'expect' linear or non-linear. I think they expect whatever provides the best fit.

 

[TerryRohrer]

i think most are saying non linear because of the last fannie update.

All who are saying this haven't yet comprehended the FNMA policy.

 

[Mejappz]

For those using simple regression to analyze price or price per square foot over a 12-month period, a second-degree polynomial is generally unnecessary. Over such a short timeframe, a linear trend line is usually sufficient. Market stability in statistical analysis is often measured by the P-value or T-statistic. A high P-value indicates that date (or market conditions) has little to no linear impact on sale price, suggesting a stable market. While a second-degree polynomial can be tested, in my experience, market fluctuations over one year are typically minimal, making it unnecessary.