Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[Tom D]

Well, i did learn a while back to show them something visual but not understandable, that they know i didn't just pull out of my as*. But it came out of some program's as*, but seemingly having more approval and belief to it. Not all as*es are equal but some are more equal than others.

 

[J Grant]

I did it as a joke, but the three EKG's I posted make as much sense as the charts being posted here.

 

[robertwells]

Just gave Jim Amorin's app a try. He did it in html and calculates a 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, and 12 month trend. Pretty interesting - and very simple to use.

View attachment 96446

Where can one take a look at this app? Thanks

 

[alebrewer]

Where can one take a look at this app? Thanks

Link to his site is here:

Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

You'll need to save the code as an html and then 'double click' on that html to open in a browser.

 

[The Bob]

I know of no other market that is as consistently cyclical as yours...

Mine is. Almost a mirror image of Joe's.

 

[The Bob]

price per sf is an unreliable metric for this purpose
Why are you using that and not using sale prices?

Why?
Do existing houses expand/contract in GLA?

 

[J Grant]

Why?
Do existing houses expand/contract in GLA?

Because the price per SF isolates a metric for analysis, while the total price resprents the whole property.

Price per sf can be distorted by location, lot size, etc. But do whatever you want!

 

[Tom D]

Because the price per SF isolates a metric for analysis, while the total price resprents the whole property.

Price per sf can be distorted by location, lot size, etc. But do whatever you want!

Yea, but isn't the GLA trend from the same area as the subject and your chosen sales looked at, excluding the outliers. Which should be anyway, wherever you are. But i speak big urban where every row home looks like all the other row homes lined up about 100 to a street block..

 

[NJ Valuator]

If this was already brought up, I apologize. According to the Fannie Mae Selling Guide: "When completing the One-Unit Housing Trends portion of the Neighborhood section of the appraisal report, the trends must be reflective of those properties deemed to be competitive to the property being appraised." It seems now that we are to overlook this and report the overall housing trend regardless if the sales are comparable or not. Trying to finding a month by month change for 3 bedroom 1 bath ranches with basements and a 1 car garage is like searching for a needle in a haystack. My resources are not that granular. All of these online sources like Zillow determines trends by lumping all single family dwellings in an entire ZIP code whether they are comparable or not. How is this specific to properties that are comparable to the subject? Not to mention when you have a 75 Sq mile ZIP code that covers multiple towns.

Also, what if data for the current month is not yet published? For example, February stats are not yet known so are we supposed to use January and if so, what if we later find out that January is much different than February once February stats are known?

Lastly, all of these online sources use closing dates not contract dates to determine their trends.

 

[TerryRohrer]

If this was already brought up, I apologize. According to the Fannie Mae Selling Guide: "When completing the One-Unit Housing Trends portion of the Neighborhood section of the appraisal report, the trends must be reflective of those properties deemed to be competitive to the property being appraised." It seems now that we are to overlook this and report the overall housing trend regardless if the sales are comparable or not. Trying to finding a month by month change for 3 bedroom 1 bath ranches with basements and a 1 car garage is like searching for a needle in a haystack. My resources are not that granular. All of these online sources like Zillow determines trends by lumping all single family dwellings in an entire ZIP code whether they are comparable or not. How is this specific to properties that are comparable to the subject? Not to mention when you have a 75 Sq mile ZIP code that covers multiple towns.

Also, what if data for the current month is not yet published? For example, February stats are not yet known so are we supposed to use January and if so, what if we later find out that January is much different than February once February stats are known?

Lastly, all of these online sources use closing dates not contract dates to determine their trends.

Why do you believe you are to overlook what is clearly stated in the selling guide? If you read and comprehend the selling guide, all of your questions are answered therein.