Phil Crawford Podcast

[Joe Flacco]

3 Alderwood Pl sold for $375,000 and was a new construction. Easily sets the upper limit. The subject was probably worth $340,000, maybe less. Assuming they loaned at the point value of $389,041, LTV is already off by 10%.

Yeah maybe. It's hard to nail down a number without MLS. Effective date looks like it was early 2022 so maybe 2021 sales need to be adjusted 10%+.

The AVM probably thinks the age of the house is insignificant and the size of the lot is insignificant since newer construction on 8,000 SF lots are kind of in the same range as updated 60's-80-'s homes on half acre lots.

 

[George Hatch]

By the time you get a neighborhood with 1/2 lots you'll usually need to widen out past 1/2 mile anyway.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Not much way to critique anything. Are the Proximity Based Results the comps picked by HVE? If so, clearly bracketing doesn't matter. Is there an effective date? It appears they present garbage anyone can find, but don't hint at what is included in the valuations.

I don't think it was proximity that caused it to pick the sales it did. There were plenty of sales in the same proximity that were 60's -80's homes on half acre lots.

It looks like it picked the sales it did based on the avm thinking the house was 2400 SF above grade and not knowing it is 1300 SF plus basement.

 

[George Hatch]

If I were a lender I wouldn't use an app that selected that dataset to make a lending decision. There might only be 1 sale that is actually comparable.

 

[George Hatch]

Cousin (2 years later). Appears to be the same subdivision but further out than 1/2 mile. A 1/2 mile radius in the search criteria would have missed this sale. An appraiser would know just from looking at the map and pics that this would be a valid comparable if it occurred during their window.

 

[George Hatch]

Zillow has the current value for the 5309 property at $400k. The one I posted above is 300-400sf larger and sold for $500k. The lowest sale in that age/size ranges sold in 10/2023 for $450k. So Zillow isn't doing very well in that immediate neighborhood, either.

This is another one of those situations where a slightly more detailed neighborhood summary on pg1 might prepare a reader for what to expect in the way of comp selection on pg 2.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Zillow has the current value for the 5309 property at $400k. The one I posted above is 300-400sf larger and sold for $500k. The lowest sale in that age/size ranges sold in 10/2023 for $450k. So Zillow isn't doing very well in that immediate neighborhood, either.

This is another one of those situations where a slightly more detailed neighborhood summary on pg1 might prepare a reader for what to expect in the way of comp selection on pg 2.

This one that sold for $500k had a zestimate of $400k until it was listed for $500k, so that is how good the AVM is.

 

[J Grant]

I don't understand the logic of why it picks the comps it does.

It's a 70's house on a half acre lot. The AVM "data from tax records" says it is 2,592 SF living area, but it is a split foyer, and the assessors building summary says 2,593 SF living area but 1,343 SF on the main level. The AVM doesn't know it is 1,343 SF with 1,200 SF basement.

Because of that, it looks like it selected these 90's and 2000's homes that are 2,000+ SF on two above grade levels. I am not sure if the AVM would have chosen those 2000's homes if it knew that the subject was actually 1,300 SF with basement.

It has no logic , it does not think, it is set for averages, medians, and for "comps," it has robo settings, within a mile Or X distance, within Y square feet, etc.

 

[George Hatch]

"data from local tax records" implies a limitation on the quality of the data.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The local tax records has the necessary information. It is just not smart enough to figure it out.