Regression for GLA Adjustment

[Mike Ault]

You been hanging around with sarcastic Glenn too long and he's rubbing off you. At least you're funny.

I certainly wasn't being sarcastic with that post. I look at where the industry is headed and came to the realization that "overachieving" was ultimately "fruitless" in this profession. Just thought I'd pass my experience along in case others are facing a similar dilemma. Life is too short to waste your time on people who don't appreciate the effort.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The adjustments are just a refinement of the resulting dataset.

too true

The typical buyer does nto run regression

The actions of those buyers are what regression is analyzing.

If a person just feeds the data in and lets the machine do the work,

Regression is incredibly useful for 'what if' analysis where you plug in various factors and see if there is a consistent pattern among buyers or is it just random noise.

I'm just questioning your assumption that appraisers are going to get dragged into court over adjustments. As opposed to telling lies about the facts of their subjects and comps.

Far more likely to be drug into court over things they don't understand than simple things that they do understand.

 

[Fernando]

I certainly wasn't being sarcastic with that post. I look at where the industry is headed and came to the realization that "overachieving" was ultimately "fruitless" in this profession. Just thought I'd pass my experience along in case others are facing a similar dilemma. Life is too short to waste your time on people who don't appreciate the effort.

I give credit to those who use sarcasm in a funny and nonthreatening way in conveying a message for us to think about. The adroit use of sarcasm tells me the creative high intelligence of that person.
Give yourself more credit.

 

[glenn walker]

You been hanging around with sarcastic Glenn too long and he's rubbing off you. At least you're funny.

You been hanging around with sarcastic Glenn too long and he's rubbing off you. At least you're funny.

Looking back on it now after 30 years, I wish that I hadn't devoted so much time stroking my own ego by drawing elaborate interior floor plans, adding pretty charts & graphs, reciting more comparables than needed, etc. and spent that time with my family instead. You don't get that time back.

No there was a reason you did not hang around with family for 30 years. And if you started out again most likley you would do the same thing. I determined at 40 that I could choose my friends but not my family. With that being said I also realized that by 45 years old I didnt like most of my family anyway with exception of say mother and father and Billy. My sister and I tried but we just don't get along and never have so we ended the pretense. Let it go and blame them

 

[Mike Ault]

No there was a reason you did not hang around with family for 30 years. And if you started out again most likley you would do the same thing. I determined at 40 that I could choose my friends but not my family. With that being said I also realized that by 45 years old I didnt like most of my family anyway with exception of say mother and father and Billy. My sister and I tried but we just don't get along and never have so we ended the pretense. Let it go and blame them

It's hard to blame a spouse who dies early. I squandered time that could have been better spent.

 

[glenn walker]

It's hard to blame a spouse who dies early. I squandered time that could have been better spent.

Sorry I was really not talking about a spouse but sometimes it happens. Often we tend to think its not as serious as it really is until too late. And also someone has to stay strong enough to keep things going. But you did what you could do. I buried 4 people over a few years and i may have been seen as uncaring or hard, but I had to keep the ship afloat as others did the mourning and all the we should haves. Sometimes just to keep our own sanity

 

[Dublin ohio]

Looking back on it now after 30 years, I wish that I hadn't devoted so much time stroking my own ego by drawing elaborate interior floor plans, adding pretty charts & graphs, reciting more comparables than needed, etc. and spent that time with my family instead. You don't get that time back.

I did the same when I first started, Sketches with interior walls, doors etc. Nice looking maps, charts and on and on. Had more than one UW tell me that they had not seen such elaborate reports. After hearing that for a few years. It hit me the same way you describe. Why waste my time. It was really adding nothing to my report (at least that's how the UWs saw it). But as the years progressed and doing numerous reviews. I came to the conclusion that the elaborate floor plans and graphs. Had just been replaced by Skippy adding pages of useless boilerplate commentary. If you can't amaze them with ability. Baffle them with BS. We called that "flash and trash" in the concert business.

 

[RCA]

"Pretty" would be in the eye of the beholder. I do try to write for my readers, though.

Which circling back, is why I was asking you about what you think the market demand actually is for these types of analyses. I mean, if you're adding it because you want to and in advocacy of your own views that this is what they need then that's a perfectly good reason all by itself. If you're trying to advance the level of play for your peers that's also a good reason to do it. All good. But I wasn't asking about any of that; I was asking about your read of the market demand for such.

IN MY VIEW its the users who establish what their expectations are and what they're willing to pay for. I never had much success with "if you build it they will come".

One of my basic arguments is that most appraisals do not meet the criteria of credibility for complex urban areas like we find in California - whether it is San Diego, Los Angeles or San Francisco. The wide variation of adjusted sale prices in Sales Grids is evidence of that.

Now, if 99% of the population believes that appraisals are credible, I don't. But then again we have government officials, appraisal organization officials and so on and so forth saying appraisals are NOT credible.

So, open your eyes.

 

[sputnam]

Credibility in an appraisal is judged in the context of the Intended Use. It's true that some appraisal assignments are very complex however, most of the appraisals that are requested are not of complex properties and in most, the Intended Use is to help a Lender make a decision.

 

[TerryRohrer]

"Credibility" has to be the lowest bar among all standards ever devised by humans, and is essentially untested in the appraisal world because no one will pay to compare the result to reality. Anyone can write a credible report completely lacking in veracity, and since the practical application of "credible" has become, "can we make the loan?", there really is no standard in that. You simply cannot reconcile the "most probable" aspect in the definition of market value with the lack of complete lack of value in "credible" results as "supported", our other non-existent standard of quality. The clear result is that the bulk of lending valuations will soon be conducted outside the toothless/useless/worthless auspices of USPAP and the existing licensing and regulatory bureaucracy.