UAD 3.6 discussion

[timd354]

If calling folks incompetent dopes is what you consider professional, I'd hazard you aren't incorrect.

There is a large difference between posting on the AF and not bothering to even try to keep up with emergining trends and issues in my field of so-called expertise.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Your sources appear to be accurate....gut feeling only....one must wonder if these large national firms have signed, agreed, or something with these large mortgage bankers to do these hybrids or the new UAD.

Coincidence that they are looking for appraisers near the release date?


They drive all of the IFA out...volume picks up...two avenues.
1. Increase waivers.
2. National firms hire newbs/perea to complete the work.


Here is the email

I’m xxxx, the Recruiting Manager at True Footage—the largest residential appraisal firm in the U.S.



We’re growing and actively looking for Certified Residential Appraisers in the

Raleigh and Greensboro markets.



If you’re committed to quality and want the backing of a supportive, tech-savvy team—we want to hear from you.

Yep, and it's worse. What I didn't mention is the national AMC/Firm hybrid not only offered to not increase fees, but if they could get a commitment for certain markets they would cut fees by 25% and commit to a two day turn time.

Again, none of this is safe and sound. Sending near 100% of orders to an AMC/Firm hybrid for their staff to complete is just the same as sending near 100% of orders to an individual appraiser with trainees/runners. Both revolve around one controlling party.

 

[Non Sequitur]

There is a podcast and one appraiser is saying there is a undersupply of appraisers in California and the appraisers have a backlog.

Another appraiser wants to get rid of licensed.

Would that not be a dream come true for the national appraisal firms.

It's scary what our so called representatives or peers are thinking.

Yeah, and TAF is spending money on a traveling Harmonization Road Show while Rome burns.

 

[djd09]

there is nothing more professional then calling someone (the whole profession) a racist just so they can swindle the illegal and corrupt waiver system in...

 

[chad hampton]

Prices are much higher than they were in 2008 so if anyone thought that crash was bad, hold on tight.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Prices are much higher than they were in 2008 so if anyone thought that crash was bad, hold on tight.

I don't think we'll see a crash, mostly due to the printed money and inflation that wasn't present during the last crash. I've read several sources claiming up to 80% of US dollars in circulation were printed in the past 5 years, that IMO is why housing prices will not crash.

 

[djd09]

I don't think we'll see a crash, mostly due to the printed money and inflation that wasn't present during the last crash. I've read several sources claiming up to 80% of US dollars in circulation were printed in the past 5 years, that IMO is why housing prices will not crash.

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q2 2025​

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q2 2025 | Wolf Street

...

 

[NC Appraising]

Myths are busted on 11 mark.

 

[timd354]

Prices are much higher than they were in 2008 so if anyone thought that crash was bad, hold on tight.

The dynamics of 2007-08 and 2025 are not at all similar and it is doubtful that things are going to play out in a similar fashion. In 2007-08, there were a signficant number of homes that had been bought bought by borrowers with no income qualification with 95 or even 100% LTV mortgages at interest rates of 7% or higher and there was a massive house building boom pre-2008 with several years where more than 2 million new homes were built annually, leading to an oversupply of inventory.

Currently, virtually all homes that are financed are owned by borrowers who were actually qualified for their loan based on documented income and most outstanding mortgages are at very low interest rates (the average interest rate for all outstanding 30 year fixed mortgaged in the U.S. is currently 4.1%). Additionally, since 2008, the number of new homes built annually signfiicantly decreased to well under 1 million units per year, slowly incresing to 1.3 million units in 2019 before crashing again during the COVID year and then spiking up after COVID, but even post COVID, homebuilding has not come close to the pre-2008 pace, averaging around 1.5 million units annually post COVID. Thus, unlike 2008, there is not an oversupply of homes in most areas and while there has been and will be some price adjustments in some areas, a complete meltdown of the housing market is unlikely, barring a widespread economic collapse.

 

[timd354]

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q2 2025​

View attachment 102400

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q2 2025 | Wolf Street

...

Pretty simplistic way to think about increasing debt is to think about it without considering inflation or growth in disposable income....but I guess it helps you guys who love to fearmonger. When you actually look at houshold debt payments as a percentage of disposable personal income, things don't look quite so scary and also it explains why things crashed so hard in 2007-08 and why that same sort of crash is unlikely to happen currently: