UAD 3.6 discussion

[Dublin ohio]

The dynamics of 2007-08 and 2025 are not at all similar and it is doubtful that things are going to play out in a similar fashion. In 2007-08, there were a signficant number of homes that had been bought bought by borrowers with no income qualification with 95 or even 100% LTV mortgages at interest rates of 7% or higher and there was a massive house building boom pre-2008 with several years where more than 2 million new homes were built annually, leading to an oversupply of inventory.

And let's not forget about the 3 year ARMs and not warning buyers that after a year or less their taxes will increase significantly on the new build and telling them their property value will increase enough to refi out of the ARM

 

[Non Sequitur]

Myths are busted on 11 mark.

If you play this backwards you can hear “All hail REVAA, all hail REVAA, independence is dead.”

 

[timd354]

And let's not forget about the 3 year ARMs and not warning buyers that after a year or less their taxes will increase significantly on the new build and telling them their property value will increase enough to refi out of the ARM

True, and I also should have brought up the negative amortization "Pick a Pay" mortgages made famous by Washington Mutual and other idiot mortgage lenders.

 

[glenn walker]

If you play this backwards you can hear “All hail REVAA, all hail REVAA, independence is dead.”

Revaa mostly represents Lenders and AMCs not Independent fee appraisers and organizations like the AI or Asa were supposed to embrace independent fee appraisers but independents don't like to join, fund or support them.

That's the major downside to being a Lone Wolf without anyone having your back. Therefore you can't have it both ways and ones who chose that route slowly ended up as Powerless Street Vendors and the AMCs share cropping labourers. ** Game Over Independents lost and died on that hill years ago.

 

[djd09]

Pretty simplistic way to think about increasing debt is to think about it without considering inflation or growth in disposable income....but I guess it helps you guys who love to fearmonger. When you actually look at houshold debt payments as a percentage of disposable personal income, things don't look quite so scary and also it explains why things crashed so hard in 2007-08 and why that same sort of crash is unlikely to happen currently:

View attachment 102402

i can hear barney frank now...

 

[timd354]

i can hear barney frank now...

Wow, that is a very intelligent reply, you really got me with that one, lol.

Way to address the substative factual information that I posted that blew-up your sad attempt to fearmonger. Here is a serious question for you...exactly why are you so bitter?

 

[NC Appraising]

In the 1950s homes cost around 2.2 times the median household income.

In 2024, it is 5.1%.

That is the issue. The upper middle class will not be affected. Most couples are both college educated and both are making four figures.

It is the first time homebuyer and the working class that purchased homes in 2021-2025 that will be affected.

When they get foreclosed, private equity will be there, so no 2008 REO market. We will probably never notice it.

I'm in one of the hottest markets in the country and things are starting to stabilize and decline. The high end homes are even starting to slow, but they have so much purchasing power and are still paying cash for million dollar homes


Tim is dead on. The only thing that I might disagree is the overall economy. One blip in the economy and the first time buyers and the middle class will see a foreclosure boom.

It doesn't matter about how qualified you were. Home affordability is at the all time low. It takes two incomes to buy a home (or one stretched borrower) . If one gets laid off it's over for them. All the covid money is gone. The covid job boom is over.


Then you have the investor thanks to easy money loans. They are partly to blame for the undersupply of homes. They will not get foreclosed, but prices may decline if rents decline. Most are high income borrowers...that can weather the storm.

In the 1950s it took one income. Today it takes two incomes. What's next? Put grandma or the kids to work? We are at a reflection point.

Lastly the job data that's been in the media....it's easy to blame a slowing economy, which I agree...but could it be also AI taking jobs?

 

[chad hampton]

Revaa mostly represents Lenders and AMCs not Independent fee appraisers and organizations like the AI or Asa were supposed to embrace independent fee appraisers but independents don't like to join, fund or support them.

That's the major downside to being a Lone Wolf without anyone having your back. Therefore you can't have it both ways and ones who chose that route slowly ended up as Powerless Street Vendors and the AMCs share cropping labourers. ** Game Over Independents lost and died on that hill years ago.

Except AMC’s aren’t supposed to be competing with appraisers. There’s three parties to the process these days. They’re the middleman. Lowest on the totem pole.

And I don’t believe revaa represents lenders.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Except AMC’s aren’t supposed to be competing with appraisers.

I agree. But we walked right into this mess by demanding (among other things) AMC licensing without pushing for clear rules and regs to govern the licensee's activity.

 

[chad hampton]

I agree. But we walked right into this mess by demanding (among other things) AMC licensing without pushing for clear rules and regs to govern the licensee's activity.

I agree with that, although my state has AMC rules and regulations written in black-and-white, but they’re not being enforced. The flaw is that a complaint needs to be filed. With a consolidation of AMC‘s, appraisers just aren’t going to file complaints when they can be blackballed by everyone in the industry if they do so. That clearly needs to change.

I see the major players like class valuation and clear capital post **** daily on LinkedIn that should get them reprimanded by states.