UAD 3.6?

[Sadie]

Regression analysis isn’t more accurate than just doing market sensitivity analysis in the grid.

Agree! I have reviewed reports that use regression analysis for the adjustment support, just spit out all the kinds of regression analysis could be used. Obviously that it was not human written or maybe human edited. And boy howdy are those adjustments wacky.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Regression analysis isn’t more accurate than just doing market sensitivity analysis in the grid.

What measure of accuracy are you using to compare the two? Do you just assume/guess which adjustments are necessary when relying on sensitivity analysis, or are there measures that gauge its reliability? How many sales are in your grid if time, site size, GLA, basement area, basement finish, garage stalls, condition, quality, bathroom count, location, view, and outbuildings impact market values in your subject market area, and are characteristics of your subject and sales? How will your result change if one sale is removed or added?

 

[Tom4value]

UAD 3.6 does not require a LIDAR-generated sketch (which is more of a floor plan). We can draw a sketch using any sketch program

I asked tech support - on a mobile app, we can draw a rectangle, put in room labels, then click on a room label and the app will place the photos in there. Then we can sketch in detail back at our home office (if we want to). My iPhone screen is small, so that is what I plan to do.

If the GSE's require a lidar sketch in the future, I would have to upgrade my phone or get a lidar-enabled iPad or tablet (my iPhone does not have the LIDAR camera lens)

Yeah, I got that from my sales guy. I was under the impression that we had to measure rooms. I guess that is false.

 

[Tom4value]

I call BS on the file going away. You have to have support for your adjustments and it isn't always the sainted regression analysis. For me its never the regression analysis. USPAP requires a workfile, digital or otherwise. The support cannot always be uploaded directly to the report unless you are doing a Vulcan mind meld.

I guess I caused misunderstanding. I know USPAP requires an appraisal file. Nothing changes with USPAP. I was saying that appraisers will think that since they don’t have any data that they generate on their own, their appraisal file will be lean and cause them trouble.

 

[Airstream]

What measure of accuracy are you using to compare the two? Do you just assume/guess which adjustments are necessary when relying on sensitivity analysis, or are there measures that gauge its reliability? How many sales are in your grid if time, site size, GLA, basement area, basement finish, garage stalls, condition, quality, bathroom count, location, view, and outbuildings impact market values in your subject market area, and are characteristics of your subject and sales? How will your result change if one sale is removed or added?

I once took a course and we talked about "regression analysis." They ran a sample situation with a garage. The variability at the time on an extra garage door was between 2,000 and 8,000. Well that is a big big percentage difference!! I can be that good without it. It's quite amazing that when I talk to other appraisers about adjustments we all kind of independently come to the same conclusions. Our adjustments aren't exact, but they are pretty close. Why is that? The answer...we all do market sensitivity analysis on a day to day basis.

And frankly using regression analysis in rural markets is a joke. Not enough data for statistical reliability anyway.

 

[TerryRohrer]

I once took a course and we talked about "regression analysis."

Well, at least you gave it your all! That should be sufficient to develop a complete understanding of concepts and processes developed over the past three and a half centuries, with rapid advancement in the computer age.

Dunning-Kruger effect.
This is a cognitive bias in which people with limited knowledge or competence in a domain greatly overestimate their own expertise. Because they lack the fundamental knowledge required to recognize their own mistakes, they are often entirely unaware of their incompetence and can become aggressively confident in their flawed viewpoints.

 

[Airstream]

Well, at least you gave it your all! That should be sufficient to develop a complete understanding of concepts and processes developed over the past three and a half centuries, with rapid advancement in the computer age.

Dunning-Kruger effect.
This is a cognitive bias in which people with limited knowledge or competence in a domain greatly overestimate their own expertise. Because they lack the fundamental knowledge required to recognize their own mistakes, they are often entirely unaware of their incompetence and can become aggressively confident in their flawed viewpoints.

This was a course on making adjustments so regression analysis was a major topic of discussion.

 

[Sadie]

I once took a course and we talked about "regression analysis." They ran a sample situation with a garage. The variability at the time on an extra garage door was between 2,000 and 8,000. Well that is a big big percentage difference!! I can be that good without it. It's quite amazing that when I talk to other appraisers about adjustments we all kind of independently come to the same conclusions. Our adjustments aren't exact, but they are pretty close. Why is that? The answer...we all do market sensitivity analysis on a day to day basis.

And frankly using regression analysis in rural markets is a joke. Not enough data for statistical reliability anyway.

My favorite was an analysis that calculated a $200,000 bathroom adjustment.

 

[TerryRohrer]

And frankly using regression analysis in rural markets is a joke. Not enough data for statistical reliability anyway.

How many regression models have you developed and tested involving data in rural markets? Less than none? Works just fine in rural areas when the operator understands how to use the tool and understands the results. Opinions of those without any experience in the matter are the joke in these conversations...they are often entirely unaware of their incompetence and can become aggressively confident in their flawed viewpoints.

 

[Surf Cat]

Dunning-Kruger effect.
This is a cognitive bias in which people with limited knowledge or competence in a domain greatly overestimate their own expertise. Because they lack the fundamental knowledge required to recognize their own mistakes, they are often entirely unaware of their incompetence and can become aggressively confident in their flawed viewpoints.

That sounds like Trump