Will There Be A Shortage Of Appraisers?

[David C. Johnson]

"However, the lenders want to do away with appraisers and use "automated"
systems to make value instead of relying on an appraisal, which will reduce
the number of appraisals over the long haul. So, as we retire, the number of
appraisers will decline pretty much as the volume declines." -- RStrahan


Ter,

"That $1,500 a month SS check is not going to cover utilities,
property taxes, and insurance at the rate those three items
are increasing." -- Ter

You're not serious are you? You think the way we are currently going, with apparently so few people (i.e., voters) having a clue that it's all disastrous for them, that there will even be $15 per month of SS coming?!

Back to the original subject -- but also along the exact same lines of thinking -- even with no net change in the current number of appraisers, we still might be about 80,000 appraisers too heavy after the next (re)election cycle and its subsequent new batch of "executive lawmaking sessions" like we have been seeing.

Upper management at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are probably so giddy at the prospects they just stand it !

I can just see it now,

Introducing the new:

FM-Ron AVM ®


http://appraisersforum.com/forum/index.php...t=0&#entry73364

dcj
__________________


"If the people were to ever find out what we have done, we would be chased down the streets and lynched."
-- George H.W. Bush, cited in the June, 1992 Sarah McClendon Newsletter

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

will [THERE] even be $15 per month of SS coming?!

Sure. SS is not going to go broke. It is just that $1,500 won't buy anything. My father proposed that scenario decades ago. He lived thru the depression and said, "Things were cheap, but noboby had any money. The next depression will be where everyone has money but everything is too expensive to buy."

We will see...possibly in our lifetimes.

 

[Dale Smalley]

Brad
I know AVMS are getting better and will get alot better when they can be localised by geocoding neighborhoods. This can be a boom to the local appriaser with a good database of comps and the geographic knowledge to set up a GIS system. The problem I have is that some AVMs are being produced with bad data and still cranking out a value estimate. One of the new nationals (begins with F and ends with RES) is producing AVM values with no data for age, GLA or bed and bathroom count. Yet a value is still produced. What unsuspectng fool with use this information to make a lending decision and consider ok?

To remain on the topic I think there will be jobs for appraisers in the future but not in the old traditional sense. There will be a seperation from data collectors and appraisers. The data collectors will be trained by the trade schools and the appraisers will be college educated.

 

[bradellis]

Dale,

Of course, garbage in garbage out. Not new. THAT is why the appraiser will not disappear.

At the same time, when you use and read these AVMs, you do begin to wonder how we all ended up thinking 3 comps and you're out. And yes, I do use the one you are talking about and find it among the best out there- even granting that there are many factors that may not be measured accurately, as I have often said.

Brad Ellis, IFA, RAA

 

[Tim Hicks (Texas)]

I believe if there would have been an appraisers forum in 1993-1995, there would have been a post "Are there too many appraisers?"

There will always be a need for an appraiser, but the amount of work available will be more the more important question.

 

[Serge Paquette]

From my perspective, there is a shortage of appraisers with adequate education and knowledge, decent ethics, who are thorough and who are not too timid to aim true in their appraisals.

From the perspective of the dealmaker, there is probably a shortage of "cooperative" appraisers who won't kill a deal unless their broken conscience won't allow them to be so fraudulent.

I just don’t see the demand for good appraisals as being that strong, and that goes for commercial and residential appraisals – I have seen it. A pervasive philosophy is start the appraisal and stay focused on finishing it, not on discovering if there are potential issues with the property which may have an impact on value. In many cases, fees are not sufficiently high to justify the kind of quality that is necessary and acceptable.

There is a shortage of fully qualified appraisers online to provide adequate mentoring. There are a lot of crappy designated and undesignated appraisers out there who are improperly mentoring trainees and these trainees keep the crap rolling.

It’s really a disgusting business to be in. Scoundrels and idiots abound. USPAP and education need so much improvement, especially USPAP. I think an AppraisersForum USPAP review group would be a good idea. The group could review and critique USPAP and present concerns and suggestions when that opportunity is available which is yearly, I believe. I certainly would be interested in contributing to such a project.

 

[Dale Smalley]

Serge nailed it

I just don’t see the demand for good appraisals as being that strong

Great demand for overinflated appraisals though. :lol:

 

[Leon Stewart]

Originally posted by Dale Smalley@Jul 2 2003, 03:39 PM
Serge nailed it

I just don’t see the demand for good appraisals as being that strong

Great demand for overinflated appraisals though. :lol:

Always has been. The Lender's primary interest is closing his deals, anything else he'll deal with on the back-end. Notwithstanding the fact that anything else may not be considered his problem.

leon

 

[bradellis]

Leon and Serge,

Gotta disagree- and strongly.

Since I often deal directly with portfolio kickouts, repurchase demands and REOs- all hypothetically created by problems with incorrect appraisals, I'll just tell you that there IS great demand for ethical and competent appraisers.

Brad Ellis, IFA, RAA

 

[Randy Beigh]

Brad

You are correct that there is a demand for ethical and competent appraisers and always has been. However, Leon is also correct in that there is and always has been a demand for not so ethical and competent appraisals.

I used to work for a national company located in Spokane. The owner had a condo complex in Hawaii that had a restaurant on it. He came to me and asked that we order an MAI appraisal and needed a value of $1,000,000. While I had dealt with appraisers in all 50 states and knew an MAI in Hawaii, I told I didn't know any that would come up with the $1,00,000. However, we had an MAI right here in Spokane that would. He put that MAI on a plane, let him stay in his condo, and he came up with the $1,000,000.

This was in the 1980's, before licensing and USPAP. There is and has always been a place for people like this, sadly. As long as there is a market, there will be someone there to fill it.

Each of us has to decide which type of appraiser we want to be. Some have chosen the dark side and so be it. I think there should be a combination carrot and stick approach to reducing the market for such appraisals which would reduce the number of appraisers involved in such practice.