Will You Get The Vaccine?

[Dublin ohio]

So far they have recorded 365k deaths, which is likely an undercounty, but it is still probably below 500k deaths.

That would be an extraordinary assumption. Since the death count is handled differently in each state. Some times in each county or hospital. My brother told me about two people he knew that were classified as dying from the virus. Both were over 85. Both had terminal cancer. Basically on their death beds. Well both of them had the virus when the died. So they were classified as virus deaths. Kind of questionable at the best. Also need to take into account the possibility of false positives.

 

[NachoPerito]

That would be an extraordinary assumption. Since the death count is handled differently in each state. Some times in each county or hospital. My brother told me about two people he knew that were classified as dying from the virus. Both were over 85. Both had terminal cancer. Basically on their death beds. Well both of them had the virus when the died. So they were classified as virus deaths. Kind of questionable at the best. Also need to take into account the possibility of false positives.

There is zero chance the deaths are 'overcounted' nationwide.

 

[NachoPerito]

That would be an extraordinary assumption. Since the death count is handled differently in each state. Some times in each county or hospital. My brother told me about two people he knew that were classified as dying from the virus. Both were over 85. Both had terminal cancer. Basically on their death beds. Well both of them had the virus when the died. So they were classified as virus deaths. Kind of questionable at the best. Also need to take into account the possibility of false positives.

Here is a pretty good analysis that compares the COVID statistics with the number of excess deaths and does it state by state. It suggest we are undercounting by 13%.

Are we undercounting or overcounting COVID-19 deaths?

Historically, death rates suggest undercounting more likely

www.marketwatch.com

 

[The Warrior Monk]

Estimates showed 2m deaths in the United States without taking measures.

So far they have recorded 365k deaths, which is likely an undercounty, but it is still probably below 500k deaths.

Early estimates are simply wild speculation. I thought 2M was a ridiculous estimate, for the simple reason it generally affects the same target group as the commonly seen influenza: those with underlying conditions and the elderly. If it more like the Spanish flu, which affected the young and healthy, the 2M number would likely be a reasonable estimate.

We aren't going to get to 2m deaths because:

1. we have a vaccine
2. taking active prevention measures has led to hospitals not filling up and has a kept a high quality of care for each patient
3. Slowing the spread has given us more time to find better treatments (Death rate is lower now than in the spring)

I don't disagree with any of that, and took all of that into consideration at the outset. I modify my opinions with new data, as any scientist or public policy maker would. I, and many others, did not expect a vaccine for two main reasons:

1. No vaccines have ever been developed for any coronaviruses, which have been around for decades; and
2. The red tape associated with approval, resulting in vaccine development in the best case scenario taking 4-5 years.

BTW, the death rate is also lower because many areas, such as NY, were ravaged by the virus early on, and thus have a higher level of immunity to the virus.

Also, I fail to see the reason for being impolite to @Sadie. She has been polite to you.

May I assume that you don't consider being sarcastic others as being impolite, as that assumption would be necessary to arrive at that conclusion.

 

[djd09]

Jeffrey Epstein's last cellmate dies from coronavirus, reports say​

Efrain Reyes reportedly was transferred from Epstein's cell the day before the financier's death​

Jeffrey Epstein's last cellmate dies from coronavirus, reports say

The last man to have shared a jail cell with the late Jeffrey Epstein reportedly has died from the coronavirus.

www.foxnews.com

together

 

[NachoPerito]

Early estimates are simply wild speculation. I thought 2M was a ridiculous estimate, for the simple reason it generally affects the same target group as the commonly seen influenza: those with underlying conditions and the elderly. If it more like the Spanish flu, which affected the young and healthy, the 2M number would likely be a reasonable estimate.

I don't disagree with any of that, and took all of that into consideration at the outset. I modify my opinions with new data, as any scientist or public policy maker would. I, and many others, did not expect a vaccine for two main reasons:

1. No vaccines have ever been developed for any coronaviruses, which have been around for decades; and
2. The red tape associated with approval, resulting in vaccine development in the best case scenario taking 4-5 years.

BTW, the death rate is also lower because many areas, such as NY, were ravaged by the virus early on, and thus have a higher level of immunity to the virus.

May I assume that you don't consider being sarcastic others as being impolite, as that assumption would be necessary to arrive at that conclusion.

The 2m estimate has held up IMO and would be the betting line in Vegas if a country took absolutely no measures to combat the virus. What do you think the number would be in this scenario ?

Sarcasm is wonderful, I didn't see you as being sarcastic.

 

[Dublin ohio]

Here is a pretty good analysis that compares the COVID statistics with the number of excess deaths and does it state by state. It suggest we are undercounting by 13%.

Are we undercounting or overcounting COVID-19 deaths?

Historically, death rates suggest undercounting more likely

www.marketwatch.com

They should try deaths by each cause (cancer, heart disease etc.) from previous years as compared to 2020. Would like to see those numbers.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

The 2m estimate has held up IMO and would be the betting line in Vegas if a country took absolutely no measures to combat the virus. What do you think the number would be in this scenario ?

The 2M number appears to be based on a comparison with the 1918 pandemic, as using the multiplier derived from the the 2020/1918 populations, and multiplying the number of deaths during the 1918 pandemic, results in a similar number. However, since the 1918 pandemic notably affected the young and healthy, that number would have to be significantly reduced. Offsetting it somewhat is the larger elderly population and the notably higher obesity rate.

My guesstimate is that the total number if humans just acted as themselves would likely be in the mid-600,000 range. That is TOTAL guesstimate at the end of all this if "nothing was done", not where we would be at this point in time. When I say "humans acting as the themselves," the elderly would still take precautions like they do every flu season, the immunocompromised would still be taking precautions as they do year round, etc.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

They should try deaths by each cause (cancer, heart disease etc.) from previous years as compared to 2020. Would like to see those numbers.

It's going to be an interesting analysis, because there are so many moving parts. For example, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the number of deaths from heart attacks, cancer, etc. go UP simply due to stress, passing on treatments for fear of going to a hospital, etc.

 

[NachoPerito]

The 2M number appears to be based on a comparison with the 1918 pandemic, as using the multiplier derived from the the 2020/1918 populations, and multiplying the number of deaths during the 1918 pandemic, results in a similar number. However, since the 1918 pandemic notably affected the young and healthy, that number would have to be significantly reduced. Offsetting it somewhat is the larger elderly population and the notably higher obesity rate.

My guesstimate is that the total number if humans just acted as themselves would likely be in the mid-600,000 range. That is TOTAL guesstimate at the end of all this if "nothing was done", not where we would be at this point in time. When I say "humans acting as the themselves," the elderly would still take precautions like they do every flu season, the immunocompromised would still be taking precautions as they do year round, etc.

not based on the Spanish Flu. It was based on the death rate up to that point that had been concluded combined with the RNaught. If we based on Spanish Flu numbers it would be 6m approximately

650k deaths... i suppose that is your opinion, that would be impossible if we were to get to herd immunity, but nobody taking precautions and the RNaught as high as it is herd immunity is the only option. So if only 650k deaths for 230m cases. That is way too low considering that we already have 400k deaths with only 50m cases up to this point.