re: reduced loan volume... That was a natural response to the extremely low interest rates in place as the Fed tried to hold our economy together over a decade ago. Ppl hanging on to low interest rates (aka "houses") longer than normal. Then the sudden jacking up, virtually doubling interest rates, which resulted in such an economic shock that ppl COULDN'T refi or move forward. IMO, if the rates had been incrementally increased over 2 years or so, we wouldn't have had such chaos as we've been through, and would have had a more normal, stable marketplace. But they did what they did, and we in real estate related fields are suffering the consequences as usual.
IMHO, the reduced loan volume during the past 10 years will inevitably re-balance itself to supply and demand as long as the Fed doesn't go Stone-Stupid (again). Young'uns start families, need homes. Oldsters want to downsize to needful space rather than continue paying high utilities, taxes & house payments for too-large spaces. And of course, some folks would like to move up the ladder to improve their surroundings, while others forfeit due to tough times. So the loan volume will return. Also, the population continues to increase; not everybody is moving to Canada.
What all this will look like from this appraiser's perch, is that the AMCs have become 'Keepers of the Cash', and divvy out work to those appraisers who will accept their low fees and ever-increasing 'tech fees' and other junk fees extracted from appraisers' "bids", as if we don't know that an accepted "bid" for $400, with a tech fee of $18, plus a monthly upload port fee of $19.99 actually pays the appraiser only $362, which would probably be scorned if it were placed for $362 like that with zero fees, as was the case in 2000.
So that is the ugly economics of it, plus the continual 'bidding' process is annoying, exasperating, and devaluing. Combine that now with costs going up for E&O, for various databases, for MLS access, for appraisal software leases, for CE, and now with all those financial pressures on appraisers, 90% of gross appraisal fees are within spitting distance of 20 years ago fees. So there's that diminishing returns straitjacket. And now marches in a MANDATORY new form requirement (yes, it's a form because it will be printed out as a form), and we're told we have to add more layers to our inspections (or maybe rely on an Uber driver to jot down his observations about the property), so more time there, more time with the ridiculously high number of pull-down menu responses, and knowing now our privacy-invading photos are online forever for anyone to see/use, and we should use our unpaid "free time" to learn how to comply with the Robot 3.6 unrelenting demands. "You will be assimilated" or your effective professional life will die.
OF COURSE a great many appraisers are going to give the middle finger to this required 3.6. The Point of Critical Unworkability. Nothing changes until the point where ppl say they cannot accept any further pain. And then change happens. For the appraiser, it might be retirement, or movement into a different income source. For AMCs, unless they evolve in some other way, it is likely that their stable of willing appraisers will shrink, which may reduce their income enough to put them out of business. For Realtors, it might be finding come November, that they are having longer loan processing times due to lack of appraisers willing to do the 3.6. For lenders, it might mean slowing down loan funding, or giving out more loan waivers. For home buyers & sellers, increased aggravation, delays and uncertainties. All for what good reason?????! so there is a database of the height of a ceiling for some database for the 'future'? IMO, what the GSEs want, for whatever reason they want it, will leave a littered landscape of productive ppl in many venues suffering financially.