Recursive AI + Computer Vision = better AVMs = fewer appraisers
Agentic AI + 90% Desktop/Hybrid Eligibility = less time per report = fewer appraisers
I have a feeling this will put many more appraisers into retirement than UAD 3.6 does
No doubt that the current mortgage volume is a big issue.
But you have to factor in other things that are compounding the issue and the GSE end game.
1. Current waivers are 28% for the GSEs. Im not that good at math, but if waivers were 0, how many appraisers would still be appraising and not leaving the market.
2. UAD 3.6, waivers, volume, AI, complex orders and pay....ticking time bomb.
3. AI and software. In my opinion, this is what others are banking on to save the profession in the short run.
4. No matter how hard we try, the volume is not up to us. Over production. This will hit the appraisal profession as well. These large appraisal firms being able to pump out 5 appraisals per day. This will either make the small firms to shut down or to cause a no work environment for all as the volume will be the same. In other words, I knocked out this appraisal in 2 hours, what's next? No more orders.
5. Long term. The flow chart has been out for more than 5 years, with traditional appraisals being last....complex or value related issues. The writing is on the wall..
So factor in waivers, AI assisted 30 minute appraisals....there is no need for 60k appraisers. 20-30k will probably work.
6. Big factor for me....the value or complex appraisal. Its like walking on egg shells. If you have no ethics and are a number hitter, this doesn't apply.
Rejections, score going down, Russian roulette. To much stress for the pay
Every report that i do is mostly a value related appraisal. Takes me two seconds to realize this. My volume has been cut in half. Factor the above with walking on eggshells on every report that we do, the stress, etc. Why would anyone stay in this profession? Stress....eggshells...you can only kill so many deals before you get blacklisted or how they put it...at the end of the line. We didn't remove you..just a long time out. They will blame your score....to many rejections.