Another Housing Crash

[Joe Flacco]

Prices push higher because there is no supply / inventory. You saying that there needs to be more inventory / supply for prices to push higher is pretty mind boggling.

I'm just going to leave you guys alone now. Have a nice day.

 

[Meandering]

Prices push higher because there is no supply / inventory. You saying that there needs to be more inventory / supply for prices to push higher is pretty mind boggling.

I'm just going to leave you guys alone now. Have a nice day.

Market conditions expert.

Did your college credits include hours of economic game theory?

I only have a high school diploma so I don’t know.

But if a store opens, and it’s shelves are empty, without inventory, are they a threat to their competition if they sell at lower prices?

Apparently only with appraisals.

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[Addie]

Apologize for not being 100% on the threads title.

Art Cashin of CNBC put out a note today. Every decade since 1850 has had at least 1 recession in it. This decade has been void of 1 so far.

Logical takeaway, it comes in 2019 or we get a pretty severe one in 2020-2029 as a payback penalty for borrowing so much forward growth from the 20’-29’ decade in 2010-2019.

Different words. 2010-2019 stole all 2020’s growth and the Fed kicked the can. Well, 2020-2029 will come one day.

 

[Meandering]

Apologize for not being 100% on the threads title.

Art Cashin of CNBC put out a note today. Every decade since 1850 has had at least 1 recession in it. This decade has been void of 1 so far.

Logical takeaway, it comes in 2019 or we get a pretty severe one in 2020-2029 as a payback penalty for borrowing so much forward growth from the 20’-29’ decade in 2010-2019.

Different words. 2010-2019 stole all 2020’s growth and the Fed kicked the can. Well, 2020-2029 will come one day.

Hey Addie.

You're brilliant at reading the news.

Please tell us the "typical" ownership retention of residential properties, in years,

and then tell us what changes in the market every 10 years that brings recessions, since Nixon in 1971.

Thanks.


.

 

[Addie]

Hey Addie.

You're brilliant at reading the news.

Please tell us the "typical" ownership retention of residential properties, in years,

and then tell us what changes in the market every 10 years that brings recessions, since Nixon in 1971.

Thanks.


.

Recessions are measured in GDP dropping. So on the cusp, housing isn’t a measure. This is where I apologize for being off topic.

Recessions are caused by many things, bad business decisions, inflation, and then not meeting debt, unemployment, snowball.

Not saying housing doesn’t mix in there. It just doesn’t bring on recessions. Housing is an end result. Not a catalysts. Inflation would be a catalysts, but not housing.

 

[Renee Healion]

Crash before last here, it was employment. People lost jobs and could not find new ones and so could not pay their mortgages. Out of home, with no money.
Last time, the teaser rates fell away and the new ARM payments could not be paid. People had jobs, so they could rent.

 

[Deleted member 130081]

I dunno. Prices here have reached and even exceeded in some cases, the peak before the Great Recession. In some areas though, prices have not recovered, which is a good thing, because they were inflated anyways. I do see people paying stupid but again, there is also a group of buyers practicing restraint and common sense. I will say this, homes are flying off the shelves, despite the inventory stats showing the months of supply is 4-6. This has been the case for a while, where the realtors are crying shortage, yet the stats paint another picture. I often wonder if its just been a successful marketing blitz, where the realtors cry shortage to get the buyers in a tizzy? Again, I dunno. Plenty of people try to predict the economy and very few actually do, and probably many of those were just lucky - lol.

The common sense/simple analysis says at some point, prices will not exceed the ability to pay. While unemployment is low, wages are still flat, so prices ought to find a ceiling pretty soon, I would predict. IMO, that's a good thing.

LOL - Many years ago there was a thing going round that correlated the economy to astrology, and the data was pretty convincing - lol.

 

[Meandering]

Recessions are measured in GDP dropping. So on the cusp, housing isn’t a measure. This is where I apologize for being off topic.

Recessions are caused by many things, bad business decisions, inflation, and then not meeting debt, unemployment, snowball.

Not saying housing doesn’t mix in there. It just doesn’t bring on recessions. Housing is an end result. Not a catalysts. Inflation would be a catalysts, but not housing.

Half an answer.

Please tell us the "typical" ownership retention of residential properties, in years,

Thanks.
.

 

[Addie]

"Please tell us the "typical" ownership retention of residential properties, in years,

Thanks."

I said it has nothing to do with a recession as a recession is measured in GDP. There is no reason to know it, look it up, care about it etc. What color was the sky during all recessions? Who cares. But now I will get snarky.

"ownership retention of residential properties, in year"

Well, if a residential property was built in 1900, it has an ownership of retention of ~118 years. If a residential property was built in 1950, it has an ownership of ~68 years. So there is no typical ownership. Your question has no answer. It's relative to when it was built. The property is always owned. Now, I know what you are saying but you did not word it correctly. Words matter.

 

[Meandering]

I dunno. Prices here have reached and even exceeded in some cases, the peak before the Great Recession. In some areas though, prices have not recovered, which is a good thing, because they were inflated anyways..

homes are flying off the shelves, despite the inventory stats showing the months of supply is 4-6. This has been the case for a while, where the realtors are crying shortage, yet the stats paint another picture. I often wonder if its just been a successful marketing blitz, where the realtors cry shortage to get the buyers in a tizzy?.

The common sense/simple analysis says at some point, prices will not exceed the ability to pay. While unemployment is low, wages are still flat, so prices ought to find a ceiling pretty soon, I would predict. IMO, that's a good thing.

In your own markets, look at

Sales volume & prices 2002-2008

5 years

Look at sales volume & prices 2012-2017

5 years.

Subtract out distressed sales.

What do you see?

Where is the bulk of the possible inventory that will move "market" prices higher?

And the average/median mortgage principal amount in those markets, in both time frames are?

Oh, those records aren't available??? I wonder why??? GSEs sure know.

And the typical in and out closing costs in those markets are?

All Real estate is local, but how often can you talk someone into selling for less money than it cost them to buy?

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