Another Housing Crash

[Randolph Kinney]

In Georgia, Sean Hannity is just another landlord hiking the rent

Through a series of limited-liability companies — each using the name SPMK, followed by Roman numerals — documents revealed that Hannity is the owner of apartment complexes and houses worth tens of millions of dollars and capable of housing hundreds of people.

In 2012, Hannity joined a wave of big-money investors to sweep in after the Great Recession's housing crash, often snatching up foreclosed properties across the U.S. at bargain-bin prices.

But longtime tenants of this predominantly blue collar, African American neighborhood also said their monthly payments on their small two-bedroom apartments had gone up 50% over the last five years, increasing from about $650 to as much as $1,000.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-hannity-landlord-20180427-story.html

Rents are not going much higher, if at all.

 

[Meandering]

Prices are already being driven higher and in my area are higher than pre-crash levels.

Great,

and that's the benefit of all real estate being local.

May I ask,

Are your current typical buyers, locals buying up? locals down sizing? Out of towners looking for a change in scenery or foreigners? Our typical buyers come from NY and NJ. Always been that way here.

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[Deleted member 128537]

Great,

and that's the benefit of all real estate being local.

May I ask,

Are your current typical buyers, locals buying up? locals down sizing? Out of towners looking for a change in scenery or foreigners? Our typical buyers come from NY and NJ. Always been that way here.

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Nothing unusual. My market is a heavy second home market. So out of area. But in the more year round residential area it’s just people buying first homes or moving into area.

 

[Meandering]

Marion, it doesn’t matter what causes the shortage. The fact is there if there is a shortage of available houses prices will go up to the point where poeple will be able to eventually sell if they are underwater. It is pure supply and demand. Period. Doesn’t matter what causes the shortage of the supply.

Can I ask you,
since you're saying prices are up by you,

Are you seeing the same drop in sales volume as was portrayed in the charts Joe posted? Are your prices going up, above pre-crash levels and yet inventory is not coming to market, while sales volume has dropped off???

Not asking for reasons or defense, just asking if your charts are similar to Joe's, but of course with higher prices, as his charts did not achieve pre-crash prices.

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[Meandering]

Nothing unusual. My market is a heavy second home market. So out of area. But in the more year round residential area it’s just people buying first homes or moving into area.

This too is a vacation area, that used to be mostly second homes, but in the last run up, many vacation homes were converted to year-round occupancy. Are you seeing conversions from vacation to year round use now?

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[Deleted member 128537]

This too is a vacation area, that used to be mostly second homes, but in the last run up, many vacation homes were converted to year-round occupancy. Are you seeing conversions from vacation to year round use now?

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We always have had that. People buy a home for a second home and then move here when they retire. Or they have 2 homes. One in Florida or Texas (south) and then back to Wisconsin in the Summer and Fall. Move to no income tax states and live there at least 6 months to establish residence.

 

[Deleted member 130081]

Still shadow inventory too. No doubt.

There are many houses that should have been foreclosed on years ago.

Gas prices and healthcare costs and taxes keep rising.

Let gas get out of control like to $4 or $5/ gallon and look out.

You know fire is one of the greatest gifts of all times. Gasoline prices could sink the economy quick.

IMO, this is what caused the crash the first time (because I am such a good economist - lol - not). But I do know this, economies need the cash spread around to function healthy. Too few players in the gas business, and the amount of money $1 per gallon represents is astronomical. We crashed one year after prices hit $4 and recovered one year after they went down to $2 - coincidence? I dunno...I don't think it is. Gas is now rising and low and behold, we are starting to see some failures. Coincidence?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Only people that live in the rural areas or distance commutes to the city are feeling the true pinch of high gasoline prices.

Last time in California, places like Fallbrook, Bonsall, Papa Mesa took big hits on there homes.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Sales of newly-constructed homes dipped in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

The big picture: Housing-market professionals have wanted a stronger pace of new-home construction for years to fill the gaps in the existing-home market, where inventory remains at multiyear lows. But most builders aren’t “slow-walking” projects, as some analysts have suggested. They’re struggling with higher input costs.

The drum-tight labor market isn’t helping.

The regional breakdown didn’t show any clear sign that adverse weather impacted April’s figures. Instead we could be seeing some early signs that rising interest rates are taking some momentum out of the market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...in-april-commerce-says-2018-05-23?siteid=bnbh

 

[Meandering]

We always have had that. People buy a home for a second home and then move here when they retire. Or they have 2 homes. One in Florida or Texas (south) and then back to Wisconsin in the Summer and Fall. Move to no income tax states and live there at least 6 months to establish residence.

That's great.
Your area may be spared some of the coming stall.

Spring is the selling season,
Summer is the documents and title season,
End of the summer to move in before school starts again.

If inventory does not pick up next month, the handwriting will be on the wall, plain as day,

But not in second home communities where there is no push to close and move in before school starts.

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