Corelogic Just Acquired Alamode

[EddieB]

I just love going back and reading threads. Seems like it has been more than two years but I would love to hear Ms Doty's new five year outlook for Corelogic...

https://appraisersforum.com/forums/...s-full-ownership-of-rels.210414/#post-2648861

 

[lefty2cox]

It’s hard to know what will happen. Clearly they will look for other avenues for valuations. Especially if there are large downpayments.

Well said. And that's what this is really about...market share. Those of us who rely on mortgage-related business will lose it (market share). Competition for remaining business will become fierce.

When I posted about this many years ago, many people on the forum stood by the axiom that an AVM will never come close to the credibility or reliability of an appraisal performed by a human. And I see posts here now touting the same. This point is moot.

The fact of the matter is, for market participants to choose an avm over an appraisal, that benchmark does not need to be met. The question becomes, as data quality and reliability increases in automation, what is the tipping point?

We can claim until we are blue in the face that we are superior to a computer, but corelogic and every other company who endeavor down the path of automation disagree. They disagree to the tune of billions of dollars in development and acquisition.

So if you want to believe you're superior and this will never happen, if it makes you sleep better at night, by all means, go ahead and think it. But don't post it here. It's misinformed and misleading.


The good news is this...for all who rely on mortgage-related appraisal business, there's nothing you can do. It's over Johnny....It's Over!! Just work, enjoy your life and what's left of the ride. Try to diversify your business...maybe get a hobby, think about retirement or another career. The time for action was many years ago. Noone really did much. We've reached critical mass.

The most enterprising of us will use our experience and ingenuity to think outside the box and use that expertise in valuation in a new way, take advantage of the marketplace as it does and will exist. The same way management and platform companies took advantage of the landscape many years ago, when appraisers should have.

 

[hastalavista]

Well said. And that's what this is really about...market share. Those of us who rely on mortgage-related business will lose it (market share). Competition for remaining business will become fierce.

When I posted about this many years ago, many people on the forum stood by the axiom that an AVM will never come close to the credibility or reliability of an appraisal performed by a human. And I see posts here now touting the same. This point is moot.

The fact of the matter is, for market participants to choose an avm over an appraisal, that benchmark does not need to be met. The question becomes, as data quality and reliability increases in automation, what is the tipping point?

Many years ago, I seem to recall the majority of the opinions were, "Yes, it will eventually happen... but the problem is quantifying property-specific data in a uniform manner; until that happens, AVMs will be very limited."
UAD has made that happen and now we are seeing the natural progression of the analytics improving. They did not have that information before, they have it now; with it, they can become more reliable.

The good news is this...for all who rely on mortgage-related appraisal business, there's nothing you can do. It's over Johnny....It's Over!!

I'm not as negative as that.
Yes, the business volume for mortgage-related appraisals will go down and go down significantly; first in the residential arena and to some extent, in the commercial arena.
But the need for mortgage-appraisals will never disappear. The appraisal SOW will change for many assignments (i.e., the hybrid) but for certain categories of properties or risk-profiles, one won't be able to get a loan without a traditional appraisal. The trick is going to be, determining if one is in a market where there are enough property types that will warrant an appraisal.
In areas of large-scale tract development, more or less homogeneous homes within neighborhoods of similar house size & age, not a lot of appraisal demand (this is where an alternative valuation tool should work best).
In San Francisco? Where one house is worth $900k and the house next door which on paper looks very similar is worth $1,600k? I think the demand for appraisals, while reduced, will still be strong.

 

[lefty2cox]

I'm not as negative as that.
Yes, the business volume for mortgage-related appraisals will go down and go down significantly; first in the residential arena and to some extent, in the commercial arena.
But the need for mortgage-appraisals will never disappear.

Well put Denis. I agree with you wholeheartedly. But what does that look like? A bunch of wiseguys chasing the same nickel? A huge exodus from the business? Will I be one of those? Will you be?

I'm just frustrated with the members of our profession who, for their own self-assurance, argued that this would never happen. Creating a division in the profession rather than unity, that may have translated into action, which may not have prevented this, but delayed it and, more importantly, improved our position in it.

And some of these individuals still exist here today...still trumpeting the same mantra.

I don't know...I get riled up. I apologize to all who may have been offended by any of my posts (except Pete)

But all I know is I remember many years ago, when alamode announced and launched Mercury Network, I called them that day and berated them over the phone. As they tried to say they were doing this for me I said..."how dare you compete with me?!!...a customer who has been with you for 10+ years! You should be ashamed of yourself!".

They wanted my client list claiming they wanted to protect my clients from the management companies...I declined. Look where we are now.

 

[timd354]

The "popcorn and beer brothers" can mock all they wish but believing this concentration in our profession will not affect them in due time is akin to an ostrich looking for a hole instead of at the whole.

Yes, the sky is falling and we are all doomed...we are probably better off swallowing the cyanide tablet now to get it over with quickly and painlessly.

 

[hastalavista]

Hard to argue that this writing has not been on the wall for some time.
And, yes, there will be an exodus (large) because some appraiser's business model is 100% focused on residential mortgage; that wasn't a bad plan (it was a great plan) when I first started; it worked very well for me up until the crash. The mistake as business people was not diversifying when one had the ability to diversify. And, I fully acknowledge that is easier said than done and, quite frankly, is not an option for everyone.

I said earlier (maybe in another thread) the ideal situation would be the business shrinks as appraisers retire. With our aging population, shrinkage of veteran appraisers due to retirement attrition is going to happen. But it would be pure coincidence if the two (alternatives to appraisals increase consistent with the retirement of appraisers that maintains an equilibrium in business volume) would result in a steady business volume for those who remain. Indeed, I'd have to call that a fantasy rather than a remote possibility.

It is never too late to diversify; but there may be little appetite to do so vs. taking on an alternative career or retiring early.

 

[timd354]

I believe and at least one board of directors member serves in both companies. They may be separate companies but don't count out a little incest in these transactions.

Wrong....why do people assert things that are incorrect when it is so easy to verify these things and avoid looking silly? These are both publicly traded companies and it takes about 30 seconds to check who serves on their respective corporate boards....there are no directors who are on both CoreLogic's board and First American's board.

 

[lefty2cox]

Yes, the sky is falling and we are all doomed...we are probably better off swallowing the cyanide tablet now to get it over with quickly and painlessly.

What is this? I don't get it. Are these types of posts designed to bloat the thread and make it more difficult for readers to find meaningful content?

I'm guessing that you disagree with eddieB? It looks to me to be the case but I also infer that you think he's crazy?

Or is this how you reach the level of Elite Member? By going for quantity of posts?

Maybe, if you do disagree with eddieB, offer up some sort of reasoning behind it.

My guess is there is none.

Your post is the forum equivalent of "I know you are but what am I?"

Why don't you tell us about your real purpose for being here. For which AMC are you a staff appraiser? Or maybe you work for one of these form companies the members have been talking about.

Because I don't see any substance behind any of your posts on this thread. You're all caught up in semantics regarding who owns what.

Do you have anything to say germane to the discussion?

 

[timd354]

What is this? I don't get it. Are these types of posts designed to bloat the thread and make it more difficult for readers to find meaningful content?

I'm guessing that you disagree with eddieB? It looks to me to be the case but I also infer that you think he's crazy?

Or is this how you reach the level of Elite Member? By going for quantity of posts?

Maybe, if you do disagree with eddieB, offer up some sort of reasoning behind it.

My guess is there is none.

Your post is the forum equivalent of "I know you are but what am I?"

Why don't you tell us about your real purpose for being here. For which AMC are you a staff appraiser? Or maybe you work for one of these form companies the members have been talking about.

Because I don't see any substance behind any of your posts on this thread. You're all caught up in semantics regarding who owns what.

Do you have anything to say germane to the discussion?

I don't work for any AMC and never have. I am the chief appraiser at a major secondary market entity and since we do not order origination appraisals, I have no pecuniary or other interests in AMC's or any reason to favor AMC's over appraisers or vice versa. What I cannot stand is comments from appraisers that make my profession look silly or stupid or which show an entitlement attitude and will call it like I see it and mock such posts at my discretion...what you think of me doing that really does not affect me one way or another.

 

[timd354]

But all I know is I remember many years ago, when alamode announced and launched Mercury Network, I called them that day and berated them over the phone.

What did that accomplish except make you look unhinged and unprofessional to whomever took your call?

I am guessing that your emotional outburst wherein you berated some poor phone jockey ended up being no substitute for a solid business plan to diversify your business. The really sad part is that you are apparently still proud of your useless and unprofessional behavior years ago.