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Global Economy Bursting?

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The Lull Before The Storm

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/12/lull-before-storm-whats-coming-in-2011.html


The successful monetization of 75% of the U.S. Federal government deficit by Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve
 
Randolph - Thanks for the interesting read. I guess we won't know the real answers to all of this until they actually happen.
 
Eastern Europeans loosing thier pensions .

I heard that Hungaria and Bulgaria are confiscating all private pension plans similiar to our 401 K ......

.... they are simply taking your 401 K ...... you loose control of it ..... you can not get to it ....

.... how long will it take the US to get to this point ? .....

..... ...


......... the piper has to be paid ....
 
Italy's debt costs approach red zone

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...0413/Italys-debt-costs-approach-red-zone.html

M1 deposits have collapsed at a rate of 2.8% over the last six months in the EMU bloc of Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, even though they are rising in northern Europe.

Italy is Europe's biggest debtor. Italy's debt will creep up to 120% of GDP next year or over €1.9 trillion.
 
If some countries that are more economically secure (Germany) have their workers working until age 70 to support weaker economies (Greece, Italy) who retire at 55....

Well, I don't see a long-term future for the Euro.
 
Dimly peering thru the glass darkly

Someone sent me this by email..

Whether these changes are good or bad depends in part on how we adapt to them. But, ready or not, here they come… THESE CHANGES ARE COMING:


v The Post Office ~ They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably no way to sustain it long term. Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive. Most of your mail every day is junk mail and bills.
v The Check ~ Britain is already laying the groundwork to do away with checks by 2018. It costs the financial system billions of dollars a year to process checks. Plastic cards and online transactions will lead to the eventual demise of the check. This plays right into the death of the post office. If you never paid your bills by mail and never received them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.
v The Newspaper ~ The younger generation simply doesn't read the newspaper. They certainly don't subscribe to a daily delivered print edition. That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man. As for reading the paper online, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to form an alliance.
v The Book ~ You say you will never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the literal pages. .. You can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview chapter before you buy, and the price is less than half that of a real book. Just think of the convenience! Once you start flicking your fingers on the screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost in the story, can't wait to see what happens next, and you forget that you're holding a gadget instead of a book.
v The Land Line Telephone ~ Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don't need it anymore. Most people keep it simply because they've always had it. All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes.
v Music ~ This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who would like to hear it. … Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalog items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book, "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary, "Before the Music Dies."
v Cable Television ~ Revenues to the networks are down dramatically. Not just because of the economy. People are watching TV and movies streamed from their computers. And they're playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime time shows have degenerated down to lower than the lowest common denominator. Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds. I say good riddance to most of it. It's time for the cable companies to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose what they want to watch online and through Netflix.
v The "Things" That You Own ~ Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be. But all of that is changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "cloud services." That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If you save something, it will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. That's the good news. But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?"
v Privacy ~ If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That's gone. It's been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, "They" know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, “your buying habits” are put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. Then "They" will try to get you to buy something else… Again and again and again…!

The Mega Trend for the U. S. is DeIndustrialization
The United States is rapidly becoming the very first "post-industrial" nation on the globe. All great economic empires eventually become fat and lazy and squander the great wealth that their forefathers have left them, but the pace at which America is accomplishing this is absolutely amazing. It was America that was at the forefront of the industrial revolution. It was America that showed the world how to mass produce everything from automobiles to televisions to airplanes. It was the great American manufacturing base that crushed Germany and Japan in World War II.
But now we are witnessing the deindustrialization of America. Tens of thousands of factories have left the United States in the past decade alone. Millions upon millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost in the same time period. The United States has become a nation that consumes everything in sight and yet produces increasingly little. Do you know what our biggest export is today? Waste paper. Yes, trash is the number one thing that we ship out to the rest of the world as we voraciously blow our money on whatever the rest of the world wants to sell to us. Once upon a time America could literally out produce the rest of the world combined. Today that is no longer true, but Americans sure do consume more than anyone else in the world. If the deindustrialization of America continues at this current pace, what kind of a future are we going to be leaving to our children?
Any great nation throughout history has been great at making things. So if the United States continues to allow its manufacturing base to erode at a staggering pace how in the world can the U.S. continue to consider itself to be a great nation? We have created the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world in an effort to maintain a very high standard of living, but the current state of affairs is not anywhere close to sustainable. Every single month America goes into more debt and every single month America gets poorer.

So what happens when the debt bubble pops?

The following are 19 facts about the deindustrialization of America

#1 The United States has lost approximately 42,400 factories since 2001. About 75 percent of those factories employed over 500 people when they were still in operation.
#2 Dell Inc., one of America ’s largest manufacturers of computers, has announced plans to dramatically expand its operations in China with an investment of over $100 billion over the next decade.
#3 Dell has announced that it will be closing its last large U.S. manufacturing facility in Winston-Salem , North Carolina in November. Approximately 900 jobs will be lost.
#4 In 2008, 1.2 billion cell phones were sold worldwide. So how many of them were manufactured inside the United States ? Zero.
#5 According to a new study conducted by the Economic Policy Institute, if the U.S. trade deficit with China continues to increase at its current rate, the U.S. economy will lose over half a million jobs this year alone.
#6 As of the end of July, the U.S. trade deficit with China had risen 18 percent compared to the same time period a year ago.
#7 The United States has lost a total of about 5.5 million manufacturing jobs since October 2000.
#8 According to Tax Notes, between 1999 and 2008 employment at the foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies increased an astounding 30 percent to 10.1 million. During that exact same time period, U.S. employment at American multinational corporations declined 8 percent to 21.1 million.
#9 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.
#10 Ford Motor Company recently announced the closure of a factory that produces the Ford Ranger in St. Paul , Minnesota . Approximately 750 good paying middle class jobs are going to be lost because making Ford Rangers in Minnesota does not fit in with Ford's new "global" manufacturing strategy.
#11 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#12 In the United States today, consumption accounts for 70 percent of GDP. Of this 70 percent, over half is spent on services.
#13 The United States has lost a whopping 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.
#14 In 2001, the United States ranked fourth in the world in per capita broadband Internet use. Today it ranks 15th.
#15 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.
#16 Printed circuit boards are used in tens of thousands of different products. Asia now produces 84 percent of them worldwide.
#17 The United States spends approximately $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that the Chinese spend on goods from the United States.
#18 One prominent economist is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040.
#19 The U.S. Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that is the highest number of poor Americans in the 51 years that records have been kept.
 
Referring to Terrell’s above posts, they left the most significant item out-“education..” I got really bored last week, cold & snow, so I took 14 hours in two online classes from the AI. Both classes were good and I spent more than 7 hours on each class. Plus, they gave us numerous articles and papers for reference. I spent 100% of my time on the material and not waste one minute hearing stories about how the cost approach doesn’t work and Marshall & Swift cost manuals are wrong yada yada yda.. The instructor was always there if I had any issues and I drove zero miles plus I have the material on my computer. My daughter has a degree in chemistry and is a drug rep. She is in her last semester to get a BS in nursing school and then will go for an MS to be a nurse practitioner most of which in on line education. Why anyone wants to go to class is beyond me. Even lectures can be put on line and viewed at convenience. We no longer need teachers, we will need proctors. Sleep late and watch the lecture whenever. If you have a problem, e-mail the instructor.
I don’t see how paper books can compete with e books. Dictionary, pictures, graphs, footnotes, links etc. You can even e-mail the author. I have not read a newspaper in 5 years but I read the stores online every day to read the comments posted by writers. The paper had a puff/hard luck story last week about the owner of a local golf course that just closed. The owner reported that he had cancer and was unable to look after it yada yada, a typical puff piece about the bad economy and bad luck. People wrote in telling what a jerk the owner is, how he sold the timber off the land, let the greens go to hell, would not water the tee’s, would not clean the pool or let people use the club house. Also, the club house burned to the ground in November prompting the closing and they accused him of burning the building down for the insurance money.
 
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