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Global Economy Bursting?

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Expert says bankruptcy for Syracuse is unlikely, but mayor should explore option

http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/sto...acuse-is-unlikely/mtgEfhvRQ02ELHs0UXXAqw.cspx

While the financial situation in the city of Syracuse hasn’t been described as desperate yet, Mayor Stephanie Miner has asked for some legal expertise on municipal bankruptcy.

The signs of the city’s financial problems have been evident for several years as city employees accept wage freezes and fire and police departments see staff reductions.

The city will use an early payment from Albany to help keep the budget from dipping into dwindling reserves. Skyrocketing pension and healthcare costs continue to be a problem for the city budget.
 
Upcoming Crash Will Be ‘Worse Than 2008’ Says Economist Peter Schiff

Investors need to prepare for an upcoming stock market crash that will be “worse than 2008.”

That’s according to a well-respected author and investor, making a recent appearance on Fox Business.

Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, says the stock market collapse we experienced in 2008 “wasn’t the real crash. The real crash is coming.”

He says that Federal stimulus, or quantitative easing, never works and that it just makes the economy sicker in the end. “The reason we are so screwed up is all this quantitative easing is toxic. I don’t doubt that we are going to pressure Germany into printing. We are like the kid who is trying to get a friend to ditch school with us to go to the beach. We are a bad influence on everybody.”

Schiff’s solution is to raise interest rates, but he acknowledges that it would bring a huge downside risk with it. “In America, the problem is that interest rates are too low. They have to go up. We can’t have an economy with interest rates at zero. If the Fed lets interest rates go up, we have to realize that we will have a deeper recession, we have to realize that banks are going to fail.”

He points out that today’s “safe haven” investments — the U.S. dollar and Treasurys — are anything but safe. “There are a lot of people who don’t understand what is going on. Look at how many people are buying the dollar. Look at people buying Treasurys. That makes no sense either. The risk lies in the dollar. The risk lies in Treasurys and other currencies being printed into oblivion.”

A noted economist agrees with Schiff that a much worse stock market crash is coming. And unlike Schiff, he has given very specific details about just how bad it will get.

“The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012.”

That catastrophic outlook comes from Robert Wiedemer, economist and author of The New York Times best-seller Aftershock. Before you dismiss Wiedemer’s claims, consider this: In 2006 he accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States.

In a recent interview, Wiedemer unapologetically displayed shocking charts backing up his allegations, and then ended his argument with, “You see, the medicine will become the poison.”

The interview has become a wake-up call for those unprepared (or unwilling) to acknowledge an ugly truth: The country’s financial “rescue” devised in Washington has failed miserably.

The blame lies squarely on those whose job it was to avoid the exact situation we find ourselves in, including current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Chairman Alan Greenspan, tasked with preventing financial meltdowns and keeping the nation’s economy strong through monetary and credit policies.

At one point, Wiedemer even calls out Bernanke, saying that his “money from heaven will be the path to hell.”

But it’s not just the grim predictions that are causing the sensation; rather, it’s the comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.

The interview offers realistic, step-by-step solutions that the average hard-working American can easily follow.

The overwhelming amount of feedback to publicize the interview, initially screened for a private audience, came with consequences as various online networks repeatedly shut it down and affiliates refused to house the content.

Bernanke and Greenspan were not about to support Wiedemer publicly, nor were the mainstream media.

“People were sitting up and taking notice, and they begged us to make the interview public so they could easily share it,” said Newsmax Financial Publisher Aaron DeHoog, “but unfortunately, it kept getting pulled.”

“Our real concern,” DeHoog added, “is what if only half of Wiedemer’s predictions come true?

“That’s a scary thought for sure. But we want the average American to be prepared, and that is why we will continue to push this video to as many outlets as we can. We want the word to spread.”


Read more: New Crash will be worse than 2008 says economist
 
This will hit areas like New York, Ohio, Illinois, California. Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, etc will choose not to participate as they not participated in the last recession.
 
“The data is clear,
50% unemployment,
a 90% stock market drop,
and 100% annual inflation
. . . starting in 2012.”

Not much time for all that to happen between now and New Years Day.
Still, I still don't think you cure a recession caused by too much debt,
by encouraging more debt. If that worked, then we could cure heroin addiction
or tobacco addiction by give the addicts/smokers lots more of the good stuff.

/
 
Catch 22. When rates are too low, raising them slows the economy, keeping them low kills senior incomes and begs for inflation. The Fed has zero wiggle room and cannot raise rates so we go thru this stag-deflationary hoping the air goes out and it gets "safe" to raise rates
 
The days of CDO yield chase is happening again

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08...boom/?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120816

Money market funds pay next to nothing. Interest rates on United States Treasuries are dismal. The volatile stock market has been dead money for more than a decade.

But on Wall Street — as the old saying goes — somewhere, someone is making money. And these days, that somewhere is junk bonds.

The market for junk bonds, risky corporate debt that pays high interest rates, is red hot. Such debt, also known as high-yield bonds, has returned 10.2 percent year-to-date, according to a JPMorgan high-yield index. Junk bond funds are on a pace to take in a record amount of money this year. Companies with less than stellar credit are issuing hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds.

Fueling this frenzy are investors of all stripes — including individuals, mutual funds and state pensions — who are desperate for returns in their bond portfolios and willing to take more risk to get them. Demand is insatiable, even as analysts warn that the market has become overheated and is ripe for a fall.
 
Community colleges across California face accreditation sanctions

http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stor...cross-california-face-accreditation-sanctions

Community colleges throughout California are facing sanctions from the agency that accredits colleges in the West, largely a result of the state cutting funding for several years as the federal government has stepped up performance standards.

The most severe cases are at the community colleges in San Francisco, San Luis Obispo and Eureka, where officials have issued sanctions one stop short of yanking accreditation -- and have ordered the colleges to make plans to shut down.
 
How to stop layoffs or make the statistics look better

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/lab...-giving-100-million-states-subsidize-payrolls

The Labor Department announced on Monday that it will be awarding almost $100 million in grant funding to states to prevent layoffs by allowing businesses to pay employees as part-time workers and the federal government will pick up the tab for the cost of a full-time paycheck.

The “work-sharing” program was passed as part of a Republican-led bill in the House, H.R. 3630, and Senate Amendment 1465 to extend the payroll tax deduction and unemployment benefits. In February 2012, President Barack Obama signed the bill into law, which included the $100 million in funding.

"Establishing or expanding work-sharing programs nationwide will help business owners better weather hard economic times by temporarily reducing their labor costs while still keeping their existing skilled employees," Labor Secretary Hilda L. Solis said in the press release announcing the grants. "This program is a win-win for businesses and employees alike."
 
Why economic growth is not happening

not-in-labor-force.png


The number of Americans deemed “not in the labor force” has surged by 10,000,000+ since the recession started. As a consumption based system, what happens when the middle class begins to thin out? At the core you need a good number of people with disposable income to fuel industry. The ultra-rich are not going to buy 1,000 Ford’s just because they can and the 46 million on food stamps are not going to add any demand.

Theoretically the more you add to the “not in the labor force” figure the better the headline unemployment rate will look even if no jobs are added.

Probability-of-re-employment.png


The probability of re-employment has fallen dramatically for both categories above (those below 27 weeks and those above 27 weeks). This suggests that many of the jobs lost during the recession are simply not going to come back. Even if we look at the jobs that were added since the recession hit, we see the impact of the aging and lower wage trends:

job-growth-bls.png


The number one job that was added was in nursing. Yet look at the next two fields. These pay less than the average per capita wage of $25,000 per year. Out of the top 10 fields three have solid wages. What is more telling is how heavily dependent job growth has become on the healthcare industry. Given that 1 out of 3 Americans have no savings, how are they going to pay for all that expensive healthcare that is paying the wages of the top growing fields?

Simply adding lower paying jobs and hardly any that are goods producing is not expanding the economy. Since the recession ended we have added 3.8 million jobs but are 5 million short from the pre-recession level. So this has helped the headline unemployment rate move lower after 10 million drop out of the labor force. And of those added jobs, the top fields are in healthcare where services are going to older Americans with little to no savings. Problem? What problem?
 
It's also interesting to note that all those fields are service related; no manufacturing mentioned.
 
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