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Global Economy Bursting?

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Jim Rogers: It's Going To Get Really Bad After The Next Election

http://moneymorning.com/ob/jim-rogers-issues-dramatic-warning/

In a riveting interview on CNBC, legendary investor Jim Rogers warned Americans to prepare for "Financial Armageddon," saying he fully expects the economy to implode after the U.S. election.

"It's going to be bad after the next election." In a newly released documentary that went viral last month, a team of influential economic experts say they have discovered a "frightening pattern" they believe points to a massive economic catastrophe unlike anything ever seen in the history of the world.
 
I think you have to take a Jim Rogers serious. I told a Republican that if the economy implodes he'd better hope Obama is reelected because a collapse - another one of those Wall Street busts that wasn't supposed to happen - is going to doom whomever is in office. Wall street seems bent upon returning to its old ways and we are too stupid to understand the implications thereof. Restore Glass-Steagall now.
 
The video that is with the Jim Roger's article presents the problem as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme based exponential growth that involves the economy on top with oil and the environment on the bottom. It takes the previous layers to payoff the upper layers. The previous layers are boosted by debt. The amount of debt has grown exponentially faster than all other components.

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail," Martenson said. "This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible."

"And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

The problem with this is what happened in the 1970s, "The Limits to growth": The Limits to Growth is a 1972 book about the computer modeling of unchecked economic and population growth with finite resource supplies. It was commissioned by the Club of Rome. The book used the World3 model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth's and human systems.

Five variables were examined in the original model, on the assumptions that exponential growth accurately described their patterns of increase, and that the ability of technology to increase the availability of resources grows only linearly. These variables are: world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion.

Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid to latter part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a "stabilized world."

The computer modeling is not very accurate for predicting 30+ years out.

What has had the most predominate impact on the economy is consumption financed by debt. Debt has been enabled to grow faster and exponentially by derivative products as well as creating phantom supply of resources with derivatives.

Any supply disruption of resources or any default on making good on a derivative position will produce immediate consequences brought about by technology and computerized trading systems using algorithms and hedging methods base upon mathematical relationships.

The trigger will be lack of confidence where players try to exist their positions, a cascading event, that overpowers the central banks' ability to stop.
 
Dollar Tree Suffers Two-Second Flash Crash

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48692290

Blink and you may have missed it.

Dollar Tree, [DLTR 48.90 -0.21 (-0.43%) ] the discount retailer that sells everything for $1 or less, suffered a mini "flash crash" in the first two seconds after the open Thursday.

The stock plunged 18 percent before snapping back to more normal levels less than two seconds later.

"That's definitely the machines," said Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management and CNBC Contributor, on CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report." "Somebody had a fat finger or dumb finger."

"At the end of the day, this kind of stuff is going to be ongoing because the machines are contributing the only margin that's really left in the broker-dealer community," he said. "You saw this issue with Knight Capital."

"We think these issues are endemic and structural," McCullough said. "They're not going to do anything for investor confidence."
 
Knight Capital Type ‘Glitch’ Will Happen Again: Author

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48526290/?Knight_Capital_Type_Glitch_Will_Happen_Again_Author

After Knight Capital Group’s torrent of faulty trades on Wednesday that lost the firm $440 million, an expert warns the same type of glitch will happen again and could potentially afflict any trading firm.

“It will happen again, there is no question. My guess is that the mistake will come from a trading firm that does market-making, a place similar to Knight but probably not as large and dominant,” Christopher Steiner, author of the book “Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World” told CNBC on Monday.

Steiner pointed out that such computer malfunctions have happened in the past, such as the glitch that affected Chicago firm Infinium Capital back in February 2010.

“There are several, including one at Infinium Capital in Chicago that lost more than $1 million in three seconds when a new algorithm began wildly trading crude oil futures. Infinium, however, was able to shut the program down quickly.”
 
Dollar Tree Suffers Two-Second Flash Crash

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48692290

Blink and you may have missed it.

Dollar Tree, [DLTR 48.90 -0.21 (-0.43%) ] the discount retailer that sells everything for $1 or less, suffered a mini "flash crash" in the first two seconds after the open Thursday.

The stock plunged 18 percent before snapping back to more normal levels less than two seconds later.

"That's definitely the machines," said Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management and CNBC Contributor, on CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report." "Somebody had a fat finger or dumb finger."

"At the end of the day, this kind of stuff is going to be ongoing because the machines are contributing the only margin that's really left in the broker-dealer community," he said. "You saw this issue with Knight Capital."

"We think these issues are endemic and structural," McCullough said. "They're not going to do anything for investor confidence."
That statement is just plain wrong. They're most certainly going to do something for investor confidence. They're going to relegate investor confidence to mythical status read about in history books that people deny ever existed. Of course he meant, "They're not going to do anything positive for investor confidence."
A fact about which there is no doubt.
 
Big Changes Ahead: Gold Just Became Money Again

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/big-changes-ahead-gold-just-became-money-again

On June 18, the Federal Reserve and FDIC circulated a letter to banks that proposes to harmonize US regulatory capital rules with Basel III.

BASEL III is an accord that tells a bank how much capital it must hold to safeguard its solvency and overall economic stability.

It's a global standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing, and market liquidity risk.

Here's the important bit:

At the top of the proposed changes is the new list of "zero-percent risk weighted items," which now includes "gold bullion," right after "cash."

That's the part to take notice of.

If the proposals are approved by regulators – and that seems likely since adoption of Basel III will be– then this is a momentous change for the gold market.

Now banks will be allowed to hold bullion in their vaults and count it among their Tier 1 assets – in other words, the least risky assets.

That by itself would be bullish for the gold price, as banks that recognize gold's unique characteristics seek to stockpile more of it.

For one thing, Basel III also stipulates that a bank's Tier 1 holdings must rise from 4% of assets to 6%.

That means that banks may not only replace a portion of their existing paper with bullion, but may use it to meet some of the extra 2% as well.

In addition, this vote of confidence from the highest monetary authorities gives further impetus to the remonetization of gold.

In essence, what's happening is that from now on gold will be considered "money" in virtually the same way as cash or bonds.
 
the machines are contributing the only margin that's really left in the broker-dealer community
Pretty bad when the only kid left to play with is your sister and you have to play dolls before she will pitch balls to you.
 
Secret E-Scores Chart Consumers’ Buying Power

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/b...?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120819

So here’s a new score to obsess about: the e-score, an online calculation that is assuming an increasingly important, and controversial, role in e-commerce.

These digital scores, known broadly as consumer valuation or buying-power scores, measure our potential value as customers. What’s your e-score? You’ll probably never know. That’s because they are largely invisible to the public. But they are highly valuable to companies that want — or in some cases, don’t want — to have you as their customer.

Online consumer scores are calculated by a handful of start-ups, as well as a few financial services stalwarts, that specialize in the flourishing field of predictive consumer analytics. It is a Google-esque business, one fueled by almost unimaginable amounts of data and powered by complex computer algorithms. The result is a private, digital ranking of American society unlike anything that has come before.

Federal regulators and consumer advocates worry that these scores could eventually put some consumers at a disadvantage, particularly those under financial stress. In effect, they say, the scores could create a new subprime class: people who are bypassed by companies online without even knowing it. Financial institutions, in particular, might avoid people with low scores, reducing those people’s access to home loans, credit cards and insurance.

It might seem strange that one innovator in this sphere has blossomed here in St. Cloud, a world away from the hothouse of Silicon Valley. It is called eBureau, and it develops eScores — its name for custom scoring algorithms — to predict whether someone is likely to become a customer or a money-loser. Gordy Meyer, the founder and chief executive, says his system needs less than a second to size up a consumer and to transmit his or her score to an eBureau client.

Every month, eBureau scores about 20 million American adults on behalf of clients like banks, payday lenders and insurers, looking to buy the names of prospective customers.

The scores, he adds, are generated without using federally regulated consumer data and are not used to make credit decisions about consumers. (Using regulated credit data for marketing purposes could run afoul of federal law.)

Such assurances aside, consumer value scores have begun to trouble some federal regulators. One of their worries is that these scores, which have spread quietly through American business, measure individuals against one another, using yardsticks that are essentially secret.

“The scoring is a tool to enable financial institutions to make decisions about financing based on unconventional methods,” says David Vladeck, the director of the bureau of consumer protection at the Federal Trade Commission. “We are troubled by these practices.”

Federal law governs the use of old-fashioned credit scores. Companies must have a legally permissible purpose before checking consumers’ credit reports and must alert them if they are denied credit or insurance based on information in those reports. But the law does not extend to the new valuation scores because they are derived from nontraditional data and promoted for marketing.
 
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