Global Economy Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

Fed set to cut growth forecast during meeting

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...recast-during-meeting-2011-06-17?siteid=nwhpm

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Payrolls Fell in 27 U.S. States in May, Led by California’s Drop of 29,200

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...n-27-u-s-states-in-may-led-by-california.html

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Companies Leaving California In Record Numbers

Today, California is experiencing the fastest rate of disinvestment events based on public domain information, closure notices to the state, and information from affected employees in the three years since a specialized tracking system was put into place. Out-of-state economic development officials are traveling through the state to alert frustrated business owners and corporate executives to their friendlier business climate versus California’s hostility toward commercial enterprises.

From Jan. 1 of this year through this morning, June 16, we have had 129 disinvestment events occur, an average of 5.4 per week (see chart above).

For all of last year, we saw an average of 3.9 events per week.

Comparing this year thus far with 2009, when the total was 51 events, essentially averaging 1 per week, our rate today is more than 5 times what it was then.

Our losses are occurring at an accelerated rate. Also, no one knows the real level of activity because smaller companies are not required to file layoff notices with the state. A conservative estimate is that only 1 out of 5 company departures becomes public knowledge, which means California may suffer more than 1,000 disinvestment events this year.

The capital directed to out-of-state or out-of-country, while difficult to calculate, is nonetheless in the billions of dollars. The top five destinations are (1) Texas, (2) Arizona, (3) Colorado, (4) Nevada and Utah tied; and (5) Virginia and North Carolina tied.

California is such fertile ground that representatives for economic development agencies are visiting companies to dissect our high taxes, extreme regulatory environment and other expenses to show annual savings of between 20 and 40 percent after an out-of-state move.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

A Geologist's View

I think we are going to see another huge shift in "building" something (manufacturing) to the South and other areas where Right-to-Work, lower taxes, and lower Workman's Comp are the norm.

I think California and Seattle and information tech will remain the high tech Kings...with one caveat.... Look what happened in Japan. Seattle and Vancouver are extremely vunerable to the same sort of tsunami that hit N. Japan. I hope that High tech companies are smart enough to pull back from the coast areas and away from earthquake zones that are the most dangerous. I suspect they won't pay attention to it. Nor will they consider the incredible impact of Mt. Rainer should it "blow" like Mt. St. Helens...

For the Gulf Coast, the NOLA region is a growing deltaic system which lacks sufficient mud to keep the delta built up. It will eventually sink into the ocean. Long term planning to evacuate NO needs to take place. Look at the Mediterranan Sea region. There are numerous areas of the east part of the sea where inland bays have completely silted in and are some distance from the ocean. Coast lines change.

Tornados are predictably a factor in the Midwest, but the damage, as great as it is sometimes, is limited. Floods can be limited by levee systems. Hurricanes, again fairly predictable and construction can be created to resist them even if they cannot completely stop the damage. But we need to stop building too close to flood zones, too low on small barrier islands, and we need to stop building critical infrastructure near volcanos, fault zones, tsunami prone areas because these can come on quickly and are impossible to mitigate damages.

 

[Austin]

I remember a course in financial management I took back in my college days. I specifically remember the professor repeating the phrase about financial managers: “On the horns of a dilemma.” I think that means the struggle between doing what ought to be done and what must be done to satisfy whomever.
I was watching TV last night and reading the news this morning about Greece. A perfect example of being on “The horns of a dilemma.” It seems that the Greek collapse is inevitable but the effort must be made for political reasons to kick the can down the road. We have to leave a trail of: “Hey, we did all we could do.” All they are doing is making a last ditch effort to buy time in hopes by some miracle an economic recovery will come about and save the day which becomes less likely with every passing day.
I agree with what Terrell posted above about a realignment of economic interest from blue states to red states. In my view, the next decade with be a realignment of interest with the liberals living on one side of the line and conservatives on the other. We will no longer be “The United States of America”, we will be “The Disunited States of America.” The interesting thing about this is that some pockets of large metro areas in the red states will create an interesting situation and will become red city states. Hopefully in the long term future all government will be local. One size does not fit all.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

The disturbing problems with this economy is the lack of job creation and how the government reports unemployment.

I noticed that California's just reported unemployment rate dropped while 30,000 jobs were shed. People who report these contradictory statistics make no attempt to explain them and what is really going on. One Internet source explains what has been happening in California; small companies and self employed don't have to file with the state when they shut down operations or move.

The other building problem is all those people who are collecting unemployment insurance payments; the number of 99ers as they are called are on they last extension of payments. Hundreds of thousands of 99ers will run out of benefits this year and they won't be counted as unemployed or part of the workforce.

My prediction is these people that are no longer counted will be become very visible by the end of 2011. A new contraction of the economy is settling in. Federal tax receipts are falling now, indicating more layoffs to come and more people who are not making it.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Gas is killing green energy in price war

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/16/us-energy-summit-costs-idUSTRE75F44D20110616

So much for all those green jobs. Maybe the governments should break a few windows to stimulate demand.



Solar Silicon Price Plunges to Six-Year Low

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...al-plunges-to-six-year-low-helping-trina.html

Cuts to subsidized power rates in Italy and Germany doomed many solar projects in those nations, provoking developers to cancel panel orders. That crimped demand for polysilicon.



5,760 trillion cubic feet of shale gas resources in 32 countries outside US

http://www.ogfj.com/index/article-d...al-unconventional/eia_-5760_tcf_of_shale.html

Gas power plants can be built at a fraction of the cost of nuclear, and the reserves found so far are eye-poppingly huge. Separately, compare that with 862 Tcf in the United States and there will be downward price pressure on competing forms of energy.

Of course, cap and trade along with the EPA will add cost to any carbon based energy, except for carbon-neutral sources.

 

[Austin]

My prediction is these people that are no longer counted will be become very visible by the end of 2011. A new contraction of the economy is settling in. Federal tax receipts are falling now, indicating more layoffs to come and more people who are not making it.

Something else you forgot to include Randolph. The Feds have been giving the states funds to keep afloat and at the end of June, this month, this source of funding will end and mass layoffs of state employees will follow. :new_snipersmilie: Remember that guns don't kill people, disgrundled public employees do!!!! :new_2gunsfiring_v1: Its just a matter of time.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Something else you forgot to include Randolph. The Feds have been giving the states funds to keep afloat and at the end of June, this month, this source of funding will end and mass layoffs of state employees will follow. :new_snipersmilie: Remember that guns don't kill people, disgrundled public employees do!!!! :new_2gunsfiring_v1: Its just a matter of time.

Yes indeed Austin, that is another problem with stimulus; it automatically creates unemployment when it runs out, the broken window theory of economics in reverse.

Unions are the only people getting news coverage. MSM = unions? :new_all_coholic:

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Betcha don't have these: Truancy court educates families

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/18/BA4J1JVDEG.DTL

By state law, if a child is truant, a parent or guardian can be held legally responsible.

State law considers a child truant after six unexcused absences.

The charge is an infraction of the state Education Code, on a legal par with a traffic ticket. The violation comes with a $100 fine.

A 280-pound third-grader, for example, didn't go to school in part because she couldn't fit into the elementary school seats.

In Oakland, 1 out of every 7 children missed almost four weeks of schools.

The other reason to enforce the truancy law is a school gets money on per student per school day basis from the state. Lack of attendance means less money for the schools and that translates into layoffs.