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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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IndyMac profit plunges 34% as mortgage business takes hit

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...02D40-9301-4279-9B9B-74E54283F519}&siteid=nbk

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- California mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp said Thursday its first quarter profit fell 34% as mortgage profits took a hit from a shakeout in the subprime, or least creditworthy sector of the market. First quarter net income slipped to $52.4 million, or 70 cents a share compared to $79.8 million or $1.18 a share a year ago. The company said it expected continued stress on its mortgage operations in the second quarter. "With respect to mortgage banking revenue margins, the spread widening in the private mortgage-backed securities markets that occurred in the first quarter will continue to impact margins in the second quarter," IndyMac President Richard Wohl said in a press release. Wohl also said he expects mortgage-banking revenue to drop at the firm's reverse mortgage unit, Financial Freedom, in the second quarter, after performing well in the first quarter. "We expect net income for Financial Freedom to decline from $28 million in the first quarter of 2007 to roughly $12 million in the second quarter and then likely grow from there," Wohl said. IndyMac shares rose 2.5%, or 78 cents to $31.75 in pre-open trading.
 
Beazer Homes posts loss and withdraws 2007 forecast

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={90595BA8-130A-4719-A62E-C0DF01A0A475}&siteid=nbk

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Beazer Homes USA Inc. said Thursday it swung to a loss in its fiscal second quarter and backed off its earlier 2007 profit forecast in the face of slumping housing prices.


"We continued to experience extremely challenging operating conditions," said Chief Executive Ian McCarthy in a statement. "Most housing markets across the country continue to experience lower levels of demand coupled with higher levels of inventory, resulting in increased competition and continued significant discounting."
 
IndyMac Suffers From Defaults, Declining Alt-A Market

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=akKLsgm92kgg&refer=finance

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the ``Alt-A'' mortgage company that says it's been mistaken for a subprime lender, posted its first profit decline in almost three years as defaults rose and investors paid less to buy its loans.

``Bids in the nonconforming mortgage markets, Alt-A as well as subprime, have collapsed,'' said Richard Eckert, an analyst at Roth Capital Partners in Los Angeles, who rates the stock ``hold.'' ``They could have some trouble, the shares could weaken, if market conditions deteriorate any more than they have.''


The company joins a growing number of Alt-A lenders that reported lower profits or losses amid rising mortgage defaults.

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. earlier this month said first-quarter profit was about half what analysts expected because the Melville, New York-based company got lower prices for its loans in the secondary market, where they're traded by Wall Street firms and other institutions. Other Alt-A lenders who have cut forecasts or reported earnings declines or losses include Buffalo, New York-based M&T Bank Corp.; Vero Beach, Florida-based Opteum Inc.; McLean, Virginia-based Capital One Financial Corp.; and Columbus, Indiana-based Irwin Financial Corp.


Mortgages with little or no documentation of income -- known as ``liar loans'' because applicants can inflate their wealth -- defaulted at a 12.6 percent rate in February, compared with 1.5 percent of fully documented prime loans, according to San Francisco-based First American LoanPerformance.


About 80 percent of IndyMac's loans in the first quarter lacked full documentation, the company said in a press release last week.


IndyMac isn't beholden to Wall Street because it funds more than 80 percent of its loans with bank deposits and advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, Lehman Brothers analyst Bruce Harting wrote in an April 3 report.
 
Subprime `Liar Loans' Stoke Housing Slump in U.S. With $1 Billion Fraud

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aN2DPRuRs93M&refer=exclusive

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Cheating on mortgage applications is so widespread and so seldom punished that it's fueling an increase in foreclosures that will prolong the housing slump, said Robert W. Russell, counsel to the director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, which oversees savings and loans.


Borrowers and brokers commit fraud when they exaggerate the applicant's income, qualifying the borrower for a home he otherwise couldn't afford. Such fraud robbed lenders of an estimated $1 billion last year, according to data collected by the Washington- based Mortgage Bankers Association and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.


``Misstatements about employment and income are being made every day,'' Russell said. ``The brokers are just putting down on paper what the underwriters would require. There are borrowers providing false information as well.''


Loans that require little or no documentation of income soared to $276 billion, or 46 percent, of all subprime mortgages last year from $30 billion in 2001, according to estimates from New York- based analysts at Credit Suisse Group. Homebuyers with those loans defaulted at a 12.6 percent rate in February, compared with 1.5 percent of fully documented prime mortgages, said San Francisco- based First American LoanPerformance, a mortgage consulting group.


A 2006 study cited by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute showed that almost 60 percent of stated income loans were exaggerated by at least 50 percent.
 
Homebuilders Pulte, Beazer, Ryland Report Losses on Property Writedowns

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awsj0XzYNyPU&refer=worldwide

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Pulte Homes Inc., Beazer Homes USA Inc. and Ryland Group Inc. reported quarterly losses as the deteriorating housing market forced them to write down the value of property and abandon land purchases.


Citing uncertain demand for new homes, Beazer and Ryland withdrew their earnings forecasts for 2007 and Pulte declined to provide an outlook for the rest of the year.


Pulte, Beazer and Ryland took a total of $300 million in charges for land and options and each posted a decline in new home orders. U.S. homebuilders are in their second year of a slump as tightening credit standards and a glut of unsold homes reduces potential buyers and prompts some to wait for prices to fall further before making offers.
 
Moh,

Since you insist on asking an unaswerable question, let's revisit this and see if I can explain to you why the data you posted does not provide adequate information:

"1-P/E=0.140
2-P/E=6.284
3-P/E=8.527
4-P/E=9.177
5-P/E=10.478
6-P/E=11.802
According to your logic of rating, the #1 & #2 should be the best performing and #5 & #6 should be the worst performing. Is that what you think? "

If you will go back and read my response it will show that I said "not necessarily or not always". You have misquoted what I said and your assumption of what I think is both wrong and unsupportable.

To determine which of these are the best investment you simply need more info. To ask this question without the other info is like me asking you which house you would buy from the following list:

#1- $400,000
#2- $600,000
#3- $700,000

Do you have enough information to make this determination? Of course not. You would need to know a lot more- like size of home, condition/year built, location, utility, what your personal needs are, etc. etc.

So, what you asked me is really no different. When one assesses the value of any stock one needs to know more than just the P/E- and THAT is the point. so let's put some hypo info in here and then you can answer your own question. Let's look at #1 + #6- P/Es of .14 and 11.8 +/-.

#1- if the P/E is really .14, then it would mean that this firm, if its stock price is $7/share would be earning $50/share annualized. On the surface it looks great- especially if it pays out half of earnings in dividends- so you buy 100 shares at $7=$700 and then get a dividend of $25/share or a return on investment of 357%. So why would this firm be selling so cheaply? THAT is the info you need. I could make up any number of scenarios and I think so could you.

#6- if that P/E is 11.8 then those same earnings per share of $50 would translate into a stock price of $590 and buying the same number of shares would cost you $59,000. The same dividend payout would then indicate a return of 4.2%. I could possibly do better in a short term CD if I shop carefully.

So, why would anyone buy #6 over #1? It is the OTHER information that can tell you. Maybe #1 is in a market segment that looks like it is shrinking rapidly (like sub-prime lending maybe?). So the forward earnings estimated may be down from $50/share to $.25 per share or even a loss. Does not look so good now does it? Hence the PEG would be far more important. Maybe the company is undercapitalized compared to the industry and at risk of perhaps going under without adequate capital to get it thru the lean times.

Conversely, if those negative factors were not present and the street is simply overlooking the firm, it could easily be the best buy out there.

The same could hold true for #6 depending upon future estimates. You might be OK with a 4.2% return on current pricing if it is a really stable firm, but if projected earnings are going down by 50% that P/E would double once that happens, assuming the street still loved the stock for whatever reasons. For some a 2.1% return would be too low to consider.

So, if you want to pose questions like this, make sure you provide enough information.

Otherwise this is like someone asking you if you walk to work or carry your lunch- or asking you how fast is 10? You need the CONTEXT for that second one.

So, tell you what. Post the names of those firms and I'll look into each one and give you my ratings and analysis.

Back to Mr. Buffett. About 2 weeks ago he bought railroad stock in big numbers. It drove up the stock prices by 5-10% I think and not just for the ones he bought- the entire sector benefitted to some degree. Why?

Because Mr. Buffett is not a technical trader- that is why. He cares almost nothing about P/E ratios. He cares about profits. None of the firms he bought needed to be turned around and he is not taking management positions- it is an investment play. He thinks they will go up in value because they will make more money. That is fundamental investing. Let me assure you that it is neither old fashioned nor out of favor.

You see the biggest push in shipping right now is biofuels. The government is subsidizing production and providing incentives. But, unlike oil and natural gas, biofuels cannot be easily shipped through pipelines so it has to be transported by other means. The most efficient method is by rail- so this stuff will be shipped by train meaning a long term a long term trend of increasing revenues that, hopefully for him and me, will translate into a sustainable upward trend in profits.

Now he may well have looked at a P/E but it would not tell him much because the P/E is calculated from current earnings. If one seeks returns over the industry norms then one must look for the undervalued but quality firms. Their P/Es will normally be lower rather than higher. But, if earnings increase and the P/E stays the same the stock will still go up. What normally happens though is that the market sees the increasing earnigns trend and begins to favor that stock sending its price even higher (with a resulting decrease in P/E).

So, did I buy more railroad stock? Nope. I bought stock in a small firm that manufactures railroad tanker cars. It closed yesterday up over 10% since I bought it 2 weeks ago.

Brad
 
Brad,
The question was to rate the performance of the stock not to make a buy decision. Buying decision is the strategy of the investor depending on the risk tolerance, and the time frame for investment. Buffet is one of the best strategists but he is not your typical investor. The man is a giant and he is one in a million but a typical investor doesn’t follow him. They can’t because they don’t have that kind of strategy and capital and the tool. You have to investment at least $100,000 to be one of his shareholders. He looks and finds the gold mine in the rough and invests there but 99% of investors want to buy stock for a short period and do constant asset allocation. Market timing is very popular these days and it pays back if it is done correctly.
For any investment, you have to know the price of that stock (P), you have to know the earning of that stock also (E), and then you can make a judgment of how the company is doing. If you want to do long term investment, you have to know the potential growth. You have to be able to project what that company is going to do next 10,15 or 30 years. It is very difficult to project such growth because things will change in some companies especially financial companies with exposure to regulation, default, foreclosure, competitions and so on. What would you do with those companies? Just short term investment with asset allocation and periodical asset management. If the P/E of that company is higher than standard and keeps going up, it means that it has more buyers interested to buy it for their own reasons so, it is on the roller coaster. Is it wise to buy it, for a short-term investment, it might be or might not and that is the immediate judgment of the performance of that stock. there is always risk in any stock no matter what and the one which is outperforming today, may start doing underperforming next month or year and never comes back and that is the name of game. Higher P/E means high confidence on that stock at the peresent time. Isn't the market value, the current appraisal value?
 
Moh,

"The question was to rate the performance of the stock not to make a buy decision."

First, why would anyone want to rate performance if not for a buying decision? Second, how does the P/E ratio in any way tell you?

Back in the dot.com bubble years there were scads of firms making only a few cents per share and selling for multiples over 100. Most failed. The P/E ratio is only usable for value shoppers and if you are one of those you are better off using the PEG.

I know it takes a ton to buy into Berkshire-Hathaway- that is not what I meant. What I said is that folks watch what Buffett does. And that part is sure true.

Brad
 
Moh,

Your analysis is simply too smplistic to have any real meaning. At best you may be intertwining a stochastic approach and P/E? At worst...

A much better approach for someone not seeking to do a lot of research would be something like this: http://www.buybackletter.com/

At least it is a strategy that makes common sense that most can understand.

Good luck and good investing.
 
Randolph,

I guess it is a very good thing for me and our other shareholders that our guidance was conservative and that many street analysts had underestimated performance.

As of now with an hour or so to go the stock is up 74 cents.

I heard WAMU reported losses in the $100 million range- true? No time to check.

Brad
 
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