Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Restrain]

Hovnanian Homes has lost 3/4th of its market value this year and they're buried in inventory. So, they're offering a "deal of the century" (their words). Huge concessions. In California, $100,000 per home, and more in other areas.

Taking the hit to cut costs, I imagine.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Hovnanian Homes has lost 3/4th of its market value this year and they're buried in inventory. So, they're offering a "deal of the century" (their words). Huge concessions. In California, $100,000 per home, and more in other areas.

Taking the hit to cut costs, I imagine.

In markets where Hovnanian Homes is competing with other builders, do you believe price cutting will only be Hovnanian Homes?

What about existing homes? How are they going to compete against Hovnanian Homes?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

No wonder Countrywide is running out of money

Countrywide: Pending Foreclosures Jump 15 Percent in One Month

"Countrywide’s operational results were released today, showing that the pace of pending foreclosures and the nation’s largest lender have continued to increase. Pending foreclosures represented 1.2 percent of unpaid principal balance during August, up an eye-opening 15.4 percent from one month earlier and the largest monthly jump in pending foreclosures in over one year. "

Delinquencies also registered a new high-water mark, Countrywide said, with 4.90 percent of the overall servicing portfolio reported delinquent as a percentage of unpaid principal balance.

 

[Restrain]

Honvanian, Centex, Drees, Horton, doesn't matter around here. The prices go down, concessions above 10%. Builders have cut their prices 10-15%. The effect is to push existing home prices of 2-3 year old homes in the same neighborhood down 15% below the sales prices of the new homes. Actually have paired sales. Interesting thing was that when prices were going up, people didn't really care, because it would catch back up. Now, they're in trouble if they have to sell because they're 20-25% under what they paid in some instances...and DFW hasn't had the run-up of some markets.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

Just waiting for the local "desperation" part of the cycle.

Northern Rock faced the triple ignominy of becoming the first British lender in 30 years to be granted a bailout by the Bank of England, losing 29% of its value on the stockmarket, and having to coax savers not to withdraw their money in a rush. (Customers queuing up in its home town of Newcastle reportedly burst out laughing when bank staff asked if anyone wanted to deposit money.)

 

[Ty Yu]

Alan Greenspan: Burst Equity Bubble of America

Greetings and salutations my fellow Americans,

I came across this article published on September 15, 2007
about Alan Greenspan and I thought it was worth sharing –
something different than traditional news.

US Housing Disaster and Market Mess "All My Fault" Says Alan Greenspan
http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s8i24691

Be well my friends and enjoy your Saturday.

 

[Dee Dee]

Ty,
I hope you realize that the entire story was a "spoof".
At the bottom it says:

The story above is a satire or parody. It is entirely fictitious.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Correlation between home prices and discretionary consumer spending

For larger image click the link:
http://bp0.blogger.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/RuqdnXf3MZI/AAAAAAAAAvM/Z2gyIUcMtv0/s1600-h/rs08072006.JPG

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Sale volume headed down, down, down

[FONT=verdana, arial] SoCal home sales at 15-year low, prices edge down[/FONT]

Home sales in Southern California dropped to their lowest level since 1992 as buyers, sellers and lenders held back in an environment of market uncertainty. Prices are off their peak, markedly so in lower cost neighborhoods ...

I suspect that Realtors are going to be dropping like appraisers - err, flies - as volume continues to shrink and prices of the most affordable homes continue to decline in value. This time next year should make for some very interesting comparisons with this year and the historical record.

 

[Debra Dilley]

so what are we reporting for the market that has gone down over 6% in the last 6 months and 9% over the last 12 months. Is this declining? I think it is. The lenders are crying, because it's busting a couple of their deals. any thoughts????