Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Steve Owen]

This thread will probablly continue for the next 2.5 years BUT it all boils down to IF IF this had happened. IF this hadn't happened.

The thread is about economics in relation to housing markets... therefore, it could continue indefinitely since those dynamics are continually changing. And, I don't think it is really about "if" although a certain amount of "if" must be considered whenever trying to forecast conditions, even for the near future.

Personal success may be motivational, but it certainly doesn't have the effect of decreasing the supply of homes on the market or decreasing interest rates.

Well put, David. However, the current supply of active listings in my market area does not indicate anything like a bursting bubble at this point in time and current interest rates are low by historical standards. (Of course, we are not likely to know the bubble is going to burst until after we hear the "pop" sound.)

 

[George Hatch]

Mike,

I never said the market here tanked a year ago - you're the one who's reaching to make a point there. I have said that some areas have peaked and are now in decline, which it very true. Foreclosures and short sales are increasing at a rapid pace. No amount of your spin and "I fly in there all the time" can change those losses for those people.

And since you so gleefully bring it up, I do interpret your use of the phrase "Crusader" to carry the same amount of vitriol - as is apparently your intent - as it's much more common usage in the Islamic fundamentalist context. If so, that that would make it very inappropriate for use in this discussion as well as being a violation of the Forum rules. You certainly wouldn't stand still for a second while someone else called you a name similar in intent. As far as I can see, people have been extremely patient with your outbursts and personal attacks. Instead of complaining about the mods you should be happy they've tolerated a double standard in your favor.

 

[moh malekpour]

Moh-

I rarely answer your posts because they're typically off the deep end. However, regarding being a wise investor or how I can call myself a real estate market analyst...the proof's in the pudding. I'm either right & profit (and so do my clients), or I'm wrong & I'm out of work and broke.

Mike,

Please define “off the deep end” for me. What do mean by “They're (my posts) typically are off the deep end”? Are they below your intelligent level, above your cognition, irrelevant to your way of thinking, irrelevant to the topic? I am just curious about your definition of that phrase.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

More interest rates rises to come

Looking at the news stories concerning renting and housing, it is clear that the FED is going to have to be raising the interest rates even more because energy and equivalent housing cost are still rising.

It is not your particular housing market the FED is responding to with inflation concerns but the average of all markets. Therefore, what matters more occurs where the greater population numbers are; west coast & east coast, plus the largest inland cities.

As long as NAR and other agencies reporting housing data on a national level are saying there is no bubble, there is no problem, then the FED has a free hand to stifle inflationary concerns with more interest rate rises.

The only question becomes, looking forward in time, when has the economy slowed sufficiently for the FED to relax or stop raising interest rates.

 

[xm72mhd]

June 25, 2006
The Speculative Episode

by Tim Wood

The following text is a quote from the book A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith. I found this material to be very fitting and for that reason I wanted to share it with you.

There's stuff in there that pretty well, and very well, summarizes the many faceted, highly opinionated, discussions we have about bubbles on here.

So, is there a bubble or not? And, if there is, is it about to break, broken or still growing ever bigger? Maybe real estate prices are unstoppable.

 

[JSmith43]

So, is there a bubble or not? And, if there is, is it about to break, broken or still growing ever bigger? Maybe real estate prices are unstoppable.
______________

I'm off on a tangent. Given the context of a debate about evidence of and prediction of a housing price collapse, aka, the bubble and it's bursting, we seem to need a new term to describe posters with the polarized view.

It has been suggested that Crusader should be banned. Shoot, there goes my second choice as well (jihadist). I am in search of a kinder and gentler term or phrase. An euphemism agreeable to all!

I'm having a mental block on this one. Bubbleist is about all that "pops" into my mind Pollyanna for the clear sailing view

 

[hastalavista]

I'm off on a tangent. Given the context of a debate about evidence of and prediction of a housing price collapse, aka, the bubble and it's bursting, we seem to need a new term to describe posters with the polarized view.

It has been suggested that Crusader should be banned. Shoot, there goes my second choice as well (jihadist). I am in search of a kinder and gentler term or phrase. An euphemism agreeable to all!

I'm having a mental block on this one. Bubbleist is about all that "pops" into my mind Pollyanna for the clear sailing view

How about Cassandra; a princess of Troy who was gifted by the gods with prophesy about the doom of Troy, but also cursed so that no one would believer her?

You can pick which side you want to apply it to.

 

[Otis Key]

How about Cassandra; a princess of Troy who was gifted by the gods with prophesy about the doom of Troy, but also cursed so that no one would believer her?

You can pick which side you want to apply it to.

Now Denis. Don't encourage Roger any more than necessary. He can stradle the fence with the best of them.

 

[Big ole Boy]

ET has come home and he has a calculator

If robots can give medical advice:

All forms of new paradigm shifts emerge as robotics replaces the quack and many other forms of potential quackery.

I saw a small demonstration being made about a robot which moves and performs medical examinations to humans;

The imperialism of computers and artificial intelligence has discounted the present value of human intelligence; especially within my own field of work; real estate appraisals.

The rainbow or silver lining here is a new shift in economic realities that move in ways far beyond a humans capability of understanding; a quick silver global economy which fuses itself with larger global interests.

A robotic global currency system which becomes the relevant borders of humanity; a physical border with Mexico becomes meaningless in a global robotic system of Western Hemisphere economic alliances and systems; a place where national interests are put aside towards larger global competition.

Hence, the imperialism of galactic intelligence is grafted into the ether of earth through technology and finance; ET has come home and he has a calculator.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

Well put, David. However, the current supply of active listings in my market area does not indicate anything like a bursting bubble at this point in time and current interest rates are low by historical standards. (Of course, we are not likely to know the bubble is going to burst until after we hear the "pop" sound.)

There are always markets that move contrary to a current overall trend, and there's lots of reasons for doing so. A recent example giving in this thread is the shifting of equity from one market to another...that's great for the area where people are moving, but it often does greater damge to the usually much more expensive region where the equity came from.

What happens in the large metro regions can have a significant impact on other areas, simply because they are economic powerhouses, and simply because that's where most of the population is located. We almost saw that in the 2000 election. A candidate that only had about 20% of voting districts across the country nearly won the election; it just so happened that the 20% for the most part were local in the urban areas where the population was centered.