Housing Bubble Bursting?

[xm72mhd]

How about Cassandra; a princess of Troy who was gifted by the gods with prophesy about the doom of Troy, but also cursed so that no one would believer her?

You can pick which side you want to apply it to.

I know of a person named Cassandra who is an agent. I looked up how that translates into English. Prophet of doom, or so the dictionary says.

She was always needing more value and used to get with an appraiser from here who advertised on the internet that he did comp checks on the phone. Anyway they did some really high priced MFG deals. The appraiser no longer has or can get a license in CO. Silly boy he believed her in his zealousness to please. One down, two hundred thousand more to go.

So, maybe the moral of the story is that agents are Cassandra to appraisers. What do you think, Janet? Maybe agents like Cassandra are helping purge the world of slimey stuff. Like catfish in a pond.

 

[Mike Simpson]

"You certainly wouldn't stand still for a second while someone else called you a name similar in intent. As far as I can see, people have been extremely patient with your outbursts and personal attacks. Instead of complaining about the mods you should be happy they've tolerated a double standard in your favor."

Surely Ye Jest!

What you describe as "outbursts & personal attacks" is me simply questioning somes ability to read the markets correctly...which oddly enough sends them into a tirade.

I'm just pointing out that as the months fly off the calendar...time brings into question a Bubble Believers credibility.

Sales Of New Homes Increased Unexpectedly--Martin Crutsinger

Looks like sales of new homes rose in May...that's surprising considering that interest rates have been rising.

The median price of homes sold DID dip slightly to $235,300...a decline of 4.3% from April sales.

The increase (4.6%) pushed the sales rate to the highest level since December, and followed increases of 5.9% in April and 7.3% in March.

For May, sales were up in all parts of the country except the Northeast which saw a 7.9% decrease.

Sales were up 6% in the south--up 5.3% in the West--and up 2.7% in the Midwest.

The increase in sales in May pushed the number of unsold new homes left on the market at the end of month down slightly to 556,000 units, down slightly from an all-time high of 560,000 homes for sale @ the end of May.
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Soft landing's on it's last legs huh

No...I didn't coin soft land, but sweatshop...that was mine.

 

[JSmith43]

Surely Ye Jest!

You are already on probation, I try and patch it up with the euphemism post and now you call him Surley????

Naked Gun: "Surely, you jest." Detective Drebben: "Don't call me Surely"

 

[JSmith43]

Cassandra might work except for that lame movie, Cassandra Crossing. I wonder if OJ still gets royalties for his part?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Sales Of New Homes Increased Unexpectedly--Martin Crutsinger

Looks like sales of new homes rose in May...that's surprising considering that interest rates have been rising.

What is funny about your posting this information Mike, you didn't include the most important paragraph in the article:

The government cautions that its housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. The standard error is so high, in fact, that the government cannot be sure sales increased at all in May. The 4.6% increase is statistically meaningless.

I figured I would post the disclaimer for you. You really didn't want to mislead anyone, did you?

 

[JSmith43]

Can't be sure of increases or decreases in that range.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Can't be sure of increases or decreases in that range.

That's right Roger. The additional information from an article on housing is as follows:

It can take up to six months for a trend in sales to emerge. New-home sales have averaged 1.17 million per month over the past six months, unchanged from the six-month period ending in April. In all of 2005, 1.28 million new homes were sold.

The housing market is a key to the U.S. economic outlook. Most housing indicators are showing a marked decline, but not a collapse in activity that could shock the consumer, who's been reliant on gains from the housing market to supplement stagnant incomes.

 

[JSmith43]

Good news for Cassandras of all persuasion?

It does not support the "sky is falling" view. It certainly should help tame predictions of doom based upon news articles.

 

[Steve Owen]

And, the biggest IF of all....

This thread will probablly continue for the next 2.5 years BUT it all boils down to IF IF this had happened. IF this hadn't happened.

You probably have to sign up with KC Star to read this, but there's no cost.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/14901594.htm

So, what is the biggest IF?

“The Fed’s really walking a tightrope,” Anderson said last week. “If they stop raising the fed funds target rate at 5.25 percent, mortgage rates will probably remain supportive of housing demand. If they go higher, all bets are off, and there’s a big risk of a more severe housing downturn.”

According to the article:

Sales of new homes probably dropped 4 percent in May as rising mortgage rates and high prices discouraged buyers, economists said in advance of a government report today.

So, what is it, Mike? Is it a 4.6 percent increase or a 4 percent decrease? Either way, it doesn't seem to support most folks criteria of a bubble bursting in May. If the bubble was actually popping, I would expect a downturn in new home sales somewhere closer to 50 percent. As one poster aptly pointed out, at 4 percent, there's probably not enough difference to be statistically significant.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Good news for Cassandras of all persuasion?

It does not support the "sky is falling" view. It certainly should help tame predictions of doom based upon news articles.

Yes, the news is really benign and does not help or hurt the Cassandras except the cozener.

The economy will have to contract before any real damage will be done to the housing market and to people who hold those wonderful pieces of paper on that collateral that defaults and the home will not cover the total mortgages or purchase price.