Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

A ticker tape thread is one that just keeps going and going ........24/7 .....

.... Mike's agenda is clear ..... confuse, persuade, confound the masses .....

.... the wild heard of cattle roam the range only to be corraled by the

BARBED WIRE of Mike Simpson ......

Now there is the truth told by someone observing the Mike Simpson harangue about "bubbles" and there ain't no such thing.:new_argue:

 

[Randolph Kinney]

What does your MLS system show for DOM?

Here is a link to a thread that is discussing the very same question I am raising about the accuracy or true representation of days on market. It seems other appraisers are noting that past listings do not accumulate in the DOM of the property for their MLS. Others are saying their MLS has cumulative DOM per property address.

http://appraisersforum.com/1194148-post13.html

San Diego county multiple listing service does not accumulate days on market for a property address. You have to manually search for that property address by category; listing, pending, sold, expired, canceled, withdrawn. The statistics as reported in summary by my MLS for DOM is independent of expired, canceled, and withdrawn listings.

One has to question NAR or other agencies that gather and report data on a national level for days on market as to whether they include or exclude expired listings.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

Here's one conspiracy I'm sure of:

I didn't want to reveal this...but real estate flippers are out in Mike S' market en force...they're flipping properties back and forth, making Mike believe that the market is on a tear. I hear soon...like by 2007...they're gonna bolt from the market with all of Mike's money...

Yeah...

/That's the ticket!

 

[DTB]

"Okay Mike. December 2001, I was laid off from my semiconductor engineering job here in So-Cal, making $85,000 a year. Today, I am a state licensed real estate appraiser and I (we) don't make anywhere near that number. And that is with my wife working now."


I think this says volumes about why one's perspective is what it is.

Mix that with others looking out from under their covers and concluding everything is risky, I better not go THERE. Another common participant has me envisioning him sitting with a revelover in his mouth while posting and at the last second chooses submit versus pulling the trigger.

End result, the "unbiased" opinions that protect the public trust.

 

[Big ole Boy]

yawn .........

 

[George Hatch]

I can't speak for anyone else, but appraising has been very good to me over the last 20 years. I make about as much money during the down years as during the up years, so from a personal gain standpoint it doesn't much matter to me which direction it goes.

That said, it's obvious that not everyone has what it takes to make this a career. Those who figure that out before they put 5 or 10 years into it are usually the ones who come out ahead with the least amount of bitterness. Why ask why? It's just like not everyone is cut out to be a law enforcement officer or a fireman. Take me, for instance - I used to be a police officer before I got into appraising. I was okay at it but I never really thrived at it. When I found something better I made my change and I've never looked back. For the people with whom I used to work I never spent 1 minute telling them that they had no right to gripe about their difficulties because I recognize that, griping aside, most of those people would still chose that job over any other in the world. I also don't begrudge them their success at it or try to persuade them they'd be happier doing something else because I'm no fool. I recognize that many of those people would still do the job even if it paid half.

So yeah, by all means, if you're not happy with what you're doing and/or you're incapable of making an honest living doing this then you absolutely should find something that's better for you. But don't make the mistake of thinking that just because you don't have what it takes to thrive doing this that nobody else can either. That's just stupid.

 

[Big ole Boy]

Windsheild wiper blades and shoody product cycles

I remember the fall of 1980 when I was taking an economics class in my senoir year in High School. I can still remember the DOW at that time and the difficulties the economy were going through. I lived in Naples, FL. We had just moved down there that Spring when real estate was really hot. My step dad wanted make the bigger bucks in Naples rather than in Gainesville, FL.

Naples always lagged 6 months behind the rest of the country at that time ..... the Northeast was in a full swing slowdown and Naples was still not feeling its affects. Naples was also a very seasonal market at that time.

Mr. Rotman put up on the chalk board about the lessens of "Guns and Butter" and the trends in product quality. As I remember, product quality trends downward during phases of structural economic change. We were in such period ... US made cars at that time were abissmal for quality .....

today, its not the cars but the auti part chains that we get our parts from.

Have you noticed how long it takes for your windsheild wiper blades to wear out? -..... about 6 months .......

The FED right now is in a cycle where the herd believes in the indexes and thinks that the FED has a handle on the economy ...... back in 1980 it took Volcker about 5 or 6 years to get a hold of the economy ...... it had gotten away from the fundamentals ..... monetary policy was having to cope with the fact that indeed a lot things had gotten out of balance .....

thats where we are today .......

when you can go to the store and buy a product and know that it will last ...... thats when you know your in the middle of a solid business cycle ......

we are not there .......

real inflation is way beyond the indices ...... and real economy is reflecting this ......

I call this "FED SLIPPAGE" ...... when percievers of numbers realize that the indices are missing the boat on the true picture ......

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

"revelover (sp) in his mouth while posting and at the last second chooses submit versus pulling the trigger." I'd probably miss my brain..its shriveled so bad

"appraising has been very good to me over the last 20 years"
The first 2 years was hairshirt. Learning curve, going thru a divorce, trying to be optimistic in the face of low income, but it was steady work. By 1993 it was better, but Mortgage brokers started pressuring me by 1994 and I pretty much dumped them all by 2000, and i actually made as much as I was making in 1980...wow. But about the same time though, the threat of suits, etc. led me to a slow and steady decline in any sense of serving a valuable purpose. We function imho as cannon fodder for a future downturn, whether it be now or some future time when prices will fall.

As I see it, the economy is still heating up inflation wise and a bad summer of Hurricanes and higher energy will force interest rates to levels not seen since the early 90's...and I think that means trouble for the simple fact few people seem able to pay the smallest of bills so how the heck are they making the mortgage..and as each ARM or interest only loan dominos.....? The Fed will have to be extremely agile to avoid "crashing" the economy...and housing has to slow all the way around in the face of high interest rates.

 

[Steve Owen]

for instance - I used to be a police officer before I got into appraising.

You have something in common with Hall McClenahan... Forumite from Kansas City. (Just thought you might want to know.)

I was a community planner before I got sick of the politics and went into appraising. Before that, I was an insurance sales person; like you in police work, I did okay, but never really thrived at insurance sales. I once held the record for most new business in the midwest region, but I had to work awfully hard to do it. Unlike Mike, I'm not a workaholic.

My father thrived as a real estate agent. At one time, he held the record for the largest commission check ever paid in this area. He quit it to go into appraising... so, Mike, everyone has their own track.

Back to the bubble... still no bubble here. Stronger and stronger evidence for a cooling market (and possibly a bubble) in some areas, though.

Randolph, I don't think we are in disagreement about MLS DOM stats... in fact, I thought everyone already knew that you had to add them up to get an accurate picture for the individual property, therefore the statistic given up by the system is always low. I've had a blurb about that in my narrative reports since 1993.

 

[Big ole Boy]

Your right is not a bubble; its more like a bomb

Back to the bubble... still no bubble here. Stronger and stronger evidence for a cooling market (and possibly a bubble) in some areas, though.

M1,M2,M3 and the stability in the velocity of all three can not be measured accurately until we get past 0% interest rates purchases and the hedge funds that try an arbitrage the 0% rate dynamic.

0% interest rate offerings across the board for cars, real estate and the concessions that are going along with them is terra firma evidence of inflation instability in a pernicious form called VELOCITY TO INFINITIUM.

In other words its like trying to calculate inflation with a fluctuating square root of PIE - the FED can not do it; I don't care if they are data driven ......

the inflation that is baked into the economy is not nearly as ruthless as the lack of liquidity that is baked into the "economic significant portion" of the homeowner from asset inflation, reduction in nominal wages .......

real estate has become an entitlement industry where " a multiple of players" systemically twist the system for a growing sector of our economy called the "Commission economy".

Fed can not rectify distorted economy sectors .... with monetary policy .....

... I do not see how we are going to avoid a liquidity crash in real estate ......