Job news is good or is it?

[Bobby Bucks]

The day I left the fee shop world I never viewed being in the industry as a job, but merely possessing a piece of paper to run a business. Thinking of it as a job can be a hindrance since the word itself may hint of of security & continuity which can be unhealthy due to the cyclical nature of the business.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Many of the jobs being created are part-time. Many of the jobs being lost are full-time. If the people who left the labor force were count as unemployed because they could not find work, the unemployment rate would be 11%.

Incomes are falling because the jobs are not high paying jobs.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The price of cheap labor went up as a result of the education requirement effective 01/01/2015. Jobs are everywhere it seems. Look it up if you don't believe it, especially for college grads. Monster or Indeed job sites are two sites that come to mind, but some of you may have some better sites.

The price of cheap labor went up because Wal-Mart is raising wages. That's your competition. And so what that education requirements changed? Nothing can stop me from hiring an 18 year old directly out of high school for $10/hr and send them out to photograph comps, even inspect vacant homes (so I don't get caught), keypunch reports, etc. The fact is it is easier than ever with millennials being unemployed in record numbers. And "supervision" only applies to real trainees, not "office help", "assistants", etc. NONE OF THEM are required to sign a report, and even if they were, how would the state regulate that? Surprise inspections? Maybe but you can hire all this keypunch from India.

So...how many houses can you look at in a day? Take your assistant, let them actually do the inspection. But you pop in, visit with the homeowner 2 minutes, hit the door, and head to find your next assistant. You've complied with "personally" inspecting, howbeit an inadequate personal inspection, but if your assistant took your dated picture while you were there you have proof you "inspected". No one and certainly not the certification spells out the exact terms of that inspection.

Nothing is new under the sun. Jan. 1 did not and will not move the needle. Only demand will. And if housing takes another dive or Uncle Sugar decides to blame us further, then there will be fewer and fewer appraisers until a point where appraisers realize that the non-bank demand is high enough that they can cherry pick the bank assignments and then the fit will hit the shan when bankers cannot get appraisers at all.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

$10/hr minimum wage is not going to propel consumer spending or housing affordability.

 

[Eli]

The camel's back will break. The profession is being starved. Many job openings will attract more of the hungry. Monopolistic/oligopolistic market structures are not good, well mostly that is when it comes to the public's best interest. Definitely not in our profession. A govt badge would be much better when it comes to long term mortgages. FNMA has put the writing on the wall. Read it and weep AMC's. FNMA is not through writing either.

 

[Highlander416]

I really do like being self employed. I enjoy setting my own schedule and doing my own thing. I think this perk is a big factor in why we haven't seen the numbers drop even more drastically. I came into this field from insurance claims. It would take a lot to get me back into the cube. However, I have also learned that the "grass is not always greener on the other side". Back in those days, I left work Friday at 4:30 and never gave work a second thought until Monday morning. Same for vacations. There was also no personal liability at the job. You did the job and went home. Then there was the retirement package, sick time and so on. If you did get fired, it wouldn't be a secret as to why it happened.

The conclusion that I have come to (at least for now) is that a combo of a regular job of some kind and part time appraisal business would be the best long term move for someone not closing in on retirement. Perhaps a municipal career? I am in my early 40's for example. Someone closer to retirement could easily ride it out, while someone in their 20's would probably look at the risk/reward scenarios a lot differently.

As to the decline in numbers and what can be done? I don't see any changes in the near to mid term. I believe things will continue on as they are for a few more years at least. When things hit rock bottom, we will see changes. Unfortunately, last minute emergency changes can be drastic and not very well thought out. Who knows what will happen then.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. There is plenty of money to be made in this business, and talent has been, and will continue to be, attracted to this business.

What you won't see is college grads lining up to work for low-paying, abusive AMCs. The rest of the business is fine. And current appraisers will benefit from a temporary supply/demand imbalance as the market gets better.

 

[Pam Wyant]

I expect most of those coming into the profession will be in the commercial sector, given educational requirements.

Appraisers are already in a shortage situation here. I am running 2-3 weeks out on turn times, and the lenders/AMCs are accepting that and still ordering.

I believe one of the reasons more residential appraisers haven't left the market is, face it, we are older and it is more difficult to find someone willing to hire a person nearing retirement. The lack of a bachelor's degree, which is more common among the older members of the residential side of the profession, also is a factor in ability to be hired and ability to replace the current level of income.

 

[timd354]

If the appraisal profession has lost 40,000 plus practicing appraisers during a poor job market, how much more will it lose in a good job market. If you don't believe the job market is good, search for job openings on some of the major internet job sites. There is a major difference in the number of job openings now vs the last few years when the appraisal profession has lost so many professionals migrating to other jobs. That tells me the decline in the number of practicing appraisers should accelerate this year, especially considering the recent education requirements and other market factors like the oligopsony market structure that is driving appraisers out. That education deadline of Jan 1, 2015 will prove to be a factor in history relative to the boost or slow down in migration away from the profession in 2013-2014. The price of cheap labor went up as a result of the education requirement effective 01/01/2015. Jobs are everywhere it seems. Look it up if you don't believe it, especially for college grads. Monster or Indeed job sites are two sites that come to mind, but some of you may have some better sites.

Where did you come up with idea tha 40,000 appraisers have left the profession? The number of active appraiser licenses currenly is 99,994, which is down only about 10,000 from the peak

 

[timd354]

However, the job market may be better than 2006, but the average appraisers income don't even compare to 2006 due to the change in market structure to more of an oligopsony.

Comparing anything to 2006 in the appraisal profession is ludicrous. The bubble was in full swing and any moron with an appraiser license who was not completely lazy made a six figure income with minimal effort whether or not they had any real skills or ability.