Job news is good or is it?

[Eli]

Apparently reading is not so easy for you as the AI never states anywhere that there were 120k acive aprpaisers at the peak. The AI has published stats showing that the number of actual appraisers peaked at 98,450 in 2007, by which time mortgage originations had already come way down from is 2003 peak.. You are mixing your numbers up and comparing apples to oranges....while there were ~120k appraisal licenses at the peak, due to many appraisers holding multiple state licenses, the peak number of actual appraisers was only 98,450. Now there are about 100,000 appraisal licenses held by about 80,000 actual appraisers according to the AI's data. Thus, the number of appraisers who have left he profession is nowhere near the 40,000 that you claim, but is about 1/2 of that number.

Thus, the number of appraisers has fallen less than 20% since the peak, in the meantime, mortgage origination volume in 2014 was only 30% of its peak year of 2003 and less than 50% of the volume in 2007 and that is the root cause of the downward pressure on appraisal fees

Ok, I stand corrected, but you can't prove how many hold a license that are not practicing. And, I know market power exists due to market structure. So we both learned something. Or at least one of us did. LOL Supply/demand is an internal market force. Market structure due to oligopsonistic market structures is an external market power, similar to legal/political forces.

There are a lot of RE agents who hold a license, but are very well off and will never do an appraisal again for mortgage purposes. They just keep their license because they want to. And like David said, some more don't practice for other reasons.

 

[Eli]

And Tim, I assure you that there are shortages around the country, but not everywhere. Not in CA for sure.

Dude, I bet you are gonna feel some heat from legal/political forces if you are still around in a few years. I guarantee you FNMA is feeling it. That is one of the reasons for what is going on. That's good for public trust. I'm for it.

 

[Eli]

Come on Tim, what impact is this good/better job market gonna have, coupled with the college deadline of 01/01/2015, as well as legal/political forces? It's gonna be interesting this year. Don't you think?

 

[Eli]

Some people invested heavily in AMC's might want to consider diversification.

 

[HF Mudd]

It's not just a job, it's an adventure.

 

[Highlander416]

I would think that the process of someone letting their license expire would be a long one.

I have to believe most would attempt to appraise part time even after switching to a new gig. I know that I would. Why not? In this scenario, using the total # of licenses is misleading in the same way the official unemployment figures total the part time workers into the rate.

How many are actually appraising full time? And, how many were working full time at the peak? Who knows.

I think the educational requirements and an improving job market will play a role. Not many are entering the field now. But, I still those factors in combination with higher interest rates will really show us where this whole thing is going. Rates have been held down at records lows for years. What happens when rates start heading up. If the job market is truly heating up, can rising rates be far off? What would appraisal volume look like with 6% rates when everyone has refied in at 3.5%?

 

[timd354]

And Tim, I assure you that there are shortages around the country, but not everywhere. Not in CA for sure.
There are some localized shortages in rural areas and in those areas, appraisal fees remain high. However, in many suburban & urban areas there are simply more appraisers than are needed, causing downward pressure on fees. As more appraisers leave the business and less enter the business, the supply demand dynamics in those areas will change eventually (assuming that too many appraisers don't take on a bunch of trainees at some point like always seems to happen when things are going well)
Dude, I bet you are gonna feel some heat from legal/political forces if you are still around in a few years. I guarantee you FNMA is feeling it. That is one of the reasons for what is going on. That's good for public trust. I'm for it.

Are you under the mistaken impression that I work for an AMC? I am the chief appraiser at an extremely well capitalized secondary market mortgage insurer, so we will be around for many years. We are actually in a very good position since the government is looking to privatize and reinsure mortgage risk....just who do you think is going to do that and make a profit doing that? If the GSE's are wound down and eliminated, that is probably not a bad thing for us either as a completely privatized secondary market is going to look insure its mortgage risk and that is what we do both on a trasnsactional and bulk basis

 

[timd354]

Come on Tim, what impact is this good/better job market gonna have, coupled with the college deadline of 01/01/2015, as well as legal/political forces? It's gonna be interesting this year. Don't you think?

If all AMCs fall off the face of the earth tomorrow, it would not affect me as I have nothing to do with AMCs

 

[timd354]

Come on Tim, what impact is this good/better job market gonna have, coupled with the college deadline of 01/01/2015, as well as legal/political forces? It's gonna be interesting this year. Don't you think?

I think every year is interesting. I also don't think that the job market is all that strong as some people make it out to be as many recent college grads are unmployed and underemployed and wages are stagnant. Also, since appraisers on average still make a higher income than median income in this country, I don't believe it will be all that difficult to attract new appraisers into the profession in the future when fees and supply & demand is more in favor of appraisers. Unfortunately, when that happens, too many appraisers will probably take on too many trainees setting up another future oversupply as unfortunately that is what always happens in this profession.

 

[JTip]

Ask a college kid if they want to make $70k a year.

All they have to do is two easy reports a day.

I'll keep the other $200-$300 per report and go golf when the snow melts.