Job news is good or is it?

[Eli]

I think every year is interesting. I also don't think that the job market is all that strong as some people make it out to be as many recent college grads are unmployed and underemployed and wages are stagnant. Also, since appraisers on average still make a higher income than median income in this country, I don't believe it will be all that difficult to attract new appraisers into the profession in the future when fees and supply & demand is more in favor of appraisers. Unfortunately, when that happens, too many appraisers will probably take on too many trainees setting up another future oversupply as unfortunately that is what always happens in this profession.

Well, I agree its gonna be interesting and an adventure, but as far as attracting, when the numbers trend changes, I will agree. That hasn't happened yet. We are still on the decline as trend. And the market structure may keep it that way for quite some time, yet the current legal/political atmosphere may change that soon with the stroke of a pen or two. I would be nervous if all my investment was in a large company like an appraisal mill or an AMC. It would be time to diversify. The biased system is not working too good according to FNMA's analogy. And they will keep posting. They have only broke the ice so far.

Other regulators along with them are fixing to put motor boats in.

At any rate, companies are filling jobs that have been vacant for years (That's money). Let's try not to paint our individual markets like they exist everywhere, because that is just not so. States, counties, townships, etc., vary from place to place. I'm not buying the B.S. any more. I know what power oligopsonistic market structures have. I've seen it. We have lived it. But it ain't over til it's over...and it ain't over.

 

[Eli]

Some people making good money in the appraisal business or appraisal management business but not producing credibility and reliability will find themselves in deep trouble soon based on current indications. Many are already there, but just dont' know it yet. They will soon. The writing is on the wall.

 

[Eli]

It seems the skill level of even clerical help in the appraisal business might be feeling some pressure. Will a better job market cost many of the big companies some of their best (or worst) employees who are unlicensed? Will they be able to find higher paying jobs in this market with less pressure and better benefits? The college requirement is a factor in this regard as well that we really haven't experienced yet as a profession.

The supply of skilled clerical help is a big part of the supply/demand equation on a national scale. Especially for some of the bigger companies. The unlicensed appraisal employees in this day are probably feeling more heat and looking elsewhere in this job market for higher pay and better benefits.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

appraisers on average still make a higher income than median income in this country

dangit, someone must be getting my share....

Seriously, for the liability appraisers take, we are far under-paid. Compare the risk of an appraiser paying $1,000 per year for a $250,000 E & O policy v. a geologist paying $450 a year for a $500,000 policy. There is a reason the risk is higher.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

but not producing credibility and reliability will find themselves in deep trouble soon based on current indications. Many are already there, but just dont' know it yet. They will soon. The writing is on the wall.

Dollar to a donut that I won't see it in my lifetime...not that I ain't older 'n dirt. And I wish you'd give the address to that wall. I want to see the verbiage for myself. Bureaucrats do not make work for themselves gladly.

 

[Eli]

Apparently reading is not so easy for you as the AI never states anywhere that there were 120k acive aprpaisers at the peak. The AI has published stats showing that the number of actual appraisers peaked at 98,450 in 2007, by which time mortgage originations had already come way down from is 2003 peak.. You are mixing your numbers up and comparing apples to oranges....while there were ~120k appraisal licenses at the peak, due to many appraisers holding multiple state licenses, the peak number of actual appraisers was only 98,450. Now there are about 100,000 appraisal licenses held by about 80,000 actual appraisers according to the AI's data. Thus, the number of appraisers who have left he profession is nowhere near the 40,000 that you claim, but is about 1/2 of that number.

Thus, the number of appraisers has fallen less than 20% since the peak, in the meantime, mortgage origination volume in 2014 was only 30% of its peak year of 2003 and less than 50% of the volume in 2007 and that is the root cause of the downward pressure on appraisal fees

I just realized how much impact trainees and unlicensed help was used as supply in the supply/demand equation. That factor has to be changing. I am realizing the true supply can't be judged only by number of licenses, because we really don't know how many unlicensed were working during the boom and they were part of the supply. And we don't know how many rich licensees just hold their license now but will never do mortgage purpose appraisals again (There are a bunch in that 50 or so(+) age group). It will be interesting soon due to more regulatory pressure and a better job market for those unlicensed people that were or are working in the business and providing supply. Supply is shrinking due to external market forces, mainly legal/political forces along with an oligopsonistic market structure that has driven many out, and unlicensed supply is a big factor or has been anyway. It has definitely shrunk and is still shrinking. A better job market should keep the unlicensed supply shrinking for a while based on current indications. Never know though when laws can change overnight almost.

 

[Eli]

Dollar to a donut that I won't see it in my lifetime...not that I ain't older 'n dirt. And I wish you'd give the address to that wall. I want to see the verbiage for myself. Bureaucrats do not make work for themselves gladly.

I agree, but that was before the **** hit the fan in about 2009. Technology is different and holding feet to the fire. The technology is what is forcing changes. It is evidence beyond a shadow of a doubt. And more government control is imminent. You know that based on scripture.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Technology is different and holding feet to the fire. The technology is what is forcing changes. It is evidence beyond a shadow of a doubt. And more government control is imminent. You know that based on scripture

Scripture? The second coming of Graaskamp perhaps?

 

[Eli]

Scripture? The second coming of Graaskamp perhaps?

No, he ain't coming back. I bet his body is still in the grave. But if we think licensing was a major change, we better get ready, cause we ain't seen nothing yet.

 

[timd354]

dangit, someone must be getting my share....

Seriously, for the liability appraisers take, we are far under-paid. Compare the risk of an appraiser paying $1,000 per year for a $250,000 E & O policy v. a geologist paying $450 a year for a $500,000 policy. There is a reason the risk is higher.

I am not saying that appraisers are not underpaid, I am saying that appraisers on average have a higher income than most people...that's just a fact.