I do not agree with you on the root of the problem.
One core challenge is the rules around lender disclosures of appraisal fees to the borrower. That drives much of the behavior of lenders, and that drives the AMCs. It is those disclosure rules that basically prevent the cost plus model (which most AMCs would greatly prefer as well).
The other core challenge is the 40% reduction in the number of loans being originated. Some who study and apply the effects of supply/demand in real estate every day seem to think that they are (or should be) exempt from the basic rules of supply and demand, even when data shows otherwise.
The core of the problem is the split fee allows the AMC to charge large amounts of $ for their service that they could not command in the free market. Why not abolish the AMC fee compensation from an appraisal fee split?
Though I support disclosure, the fee is still split in a disclosure, and the cost would still be less, $ reachign the appraiser. Why are you so adamant that the fee split system continue, instead of the deep-pocket lenders paying a hard cost for the AMC service that is not a split of the appraisal fee?
I know why, and so do you - the truth is that the AMC can not survive in a free market without the fee split covering their compensation. Do you really think a lender would pay $200 to an AMC to process an appraisal order if the lender had to pay it as a hard cost? The AMC's would be lucky to get $75 from lenders. Though if a lender could pass it on to a borrower, maybe they would get a bit more.
40% fewer loans originated- more reason why the AMC fee split needs to go. With fewer loans originated, the appraisers need every dollar from the reduced volume. Is it 40% fewer loans originated, or 40% fewer appraisals ordered due to waivers/value acceptance or other alternatives?
Supply demand - that is the problem, with AMC's - the demand is highly narrowed down - even if 300 AMC's are registered in the state of Florida, with perhaps 50 reasonably active - but even if all 300 are active, 300 companies ordering is very narrow compared to thousands of appraisers. Due to prohibiotns on who can order an appraisal unique to regulated loans, the supply/demand is badly skweed in favor of the AMC - and the lender - the difference is that lenders can not fee split with themselves, thus when they engage appraisres direct they pay retial C and R that the borrower covered - but when they use an AMC, the AMC now treats the apprasial as a wholesale product to fee split off of to get compensated. The appraiser gets $550 direct from a lender and $350 from an AMC for the exact same order with the same lender when they use an AMC. I know that personally because I have experienced it ( as have others )
So no matter how many loans are originated, the appraiser makes far less with the fee split system.