Poll - How Likely Are You To Retire Before Implementation Of The Uad 3.6 Abomination?

[Alsie35]

Good Lord. The discussions on all of these various Abomination threads is degenerating into something that sounds like the breathless rationalizations and hoping against hope amongst a group of stampeding lemmings to the effect that:

"There really is a bridge at the end of that cliff!"

Yikes! I know how much stress the impending Abomination was causing me for the last year, until we realized last Fall that it was time for blissful retirement, rather than continuing on the hamster wheel for the sake of a few shekels that we didn't need.

Good luck to you. I don't envy you what's coming.

 

[J Grant]

I wonder if the AI driven software would choose the same comps an appraiser would manually choose. Will the appraisers who use AI and also manually take the time to verify and look at the photos themselves be penalized for spending that extra time?
What could possibly go wrong -the "appraiser" never sees the property, a PDR collector went out. The "appraiser" did not select the comps- AI photo software did.

Meanwhile, buyers, RE agents and parties inspect in person and interact with each other, while the former appraisers who used to be out in the field with them turn into virtual reality ghosts.

 

[J Grant]

If one reads the Aivre site, one sees they promise that their system will mean an appraiser can double their daily output. However, there are a fixed number of loans and appraisals needed at any given time - the volume will not double! Which means half the number of appraisers will be needed.
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And that is before the GSEs make the inevitable conclusion that, (imo, they are already planning-) Which is , if for res loan work the majority of appraisers are just clicking on the AI functions for comp selection and quality and condition opinions, at that point a non-appraiser "data analyst " can use the software just as well. They've already set a precedent for it by using non-appraiser PDC collectors for the "inspection."

I might be able to continue on since I do a number of rough properties and high-value properties for a few more years at least -will see. I feel bad for the next generation, who are facing so many headwinds.

 

[chad hampton]

So - you're gonna use the software that will:

"CREATE THE XML FILE FIRST BEFORE THE REPORT!!!!!!!!",

shilled by a shrieking lunatic who sounds like he's on CRACK?

That Bradford video narrator can cause a cow herd to stampede four counties over .... HMMMMM ....

I have no idea what any of that means. But I’ve been with them for 22 years and I’ve been happy with the product. I don’t like any of the new formats that I’m seeing honestly, but that wasn’t a software company doing. And I don’t have much interest in supporting those new fancy tech Bros you see all over LinkedIn. They might mesmerize the old white men in the profession, but not me.

 

[chad hampton]

I think most of them are talking about bringing in information from the MLS automatically. One of the reasons I don’t do reviews is that it’s double the work going line by line checking something. I see no difference with this. Unless I’m allowed to push a button and send it in and if anybody comes back, I’ll just say that’s what the computer told me?

What’s the point of having all this stuff come into the system automatically if you still have to double check everything? I know Bradford says you scan the contract and it enters everything for you. I guess we just assume that it’s correct? The current contract section takes me about 15 seconds to fill in if you know your states purchase contracts. I honestly don’t see the time savings in a lot of this stuff. Cops are the same way for me. And to me the inspection and the sales grid are the most important parts of the appraisal. I don’t have any problem taking my time on them.

A professional service isn’t supposed to push productivity to the point where the professionalism slacks

 

[George Hatch]

Perhaps the AI consistency will soon take away your job.

Buyers do not look for consistency. Buyers look for , and value, the indidual features of a property But who cares how buyers in the market behave? Conistency to replace judgement is a way to pump out volume from appraisers and then the next step will be to take the appraiser out of the equation.

You have been consistent at jumping in to rataionize every action that minimizes the appraiser's role , I will give you that !

The same thing is going to happen to me. It's just a matter of time. As fast as AI is evolving I may or may not be able to eke out another year longer than the SFR appraisers. And the main reason for the delay will be the reduced quantity and comparability of the data. I can't go to a single database and expect to find all of the comps I need to populate a report. I have to do a lot of manual scrounging for many of my assignments. That's not a technology problem, it's a data availability problem.

The buyers don't make loan decisions. They aren't the users of these appraisals or the hybrids or the waivers. What they do is make purchase decisions that can be observed, analyzed and reported.

Just because I am trying to compartmentalize and objectively analyze how I think these lenders are going to make their decisions doesn't mean I think that I'm somehow immune from them.

 

[J Grant]

The same thing is going to happen to me. It's just a matter of time. As fast as AI is evolving I may or may not be able to eke out another year longer than the SFR appraisers. And the main reason for the delay will be the reduced quantity and comparability of the data. I can't go to a single database and expect to find all of the comps I need to populate a report. I have to do a lot of manual scrounging for many of my assignments.

The buyers don't make loan decisions. They aren't the users of these appraisals or the hybrids or the waivers. What they do is make purchase decisions that can be observed, analyzed and reported.

You missed my point. The point was that the decisions buyers make drive the market, not artificial levels of consistency that AI strives for.

 

[J Grant]

I think most of them are talking about bringing in information from the MLS automatically. One of the reasons I don’t do reviews is that it’s double the work going line by line checking something. I see no difference with this. Unless I’m allowed to push a button and send it in and if anybody comes back, I’ll just say that’s what the computer told me?

What’s the point of having all this stuff come into the system automatically if you still have to double check everything? I know Bradford says you scan the contract and it enters everything for you. I guess we just assume that it’s correct? The current contract section takes me about 15 seconds to fill in if you know your states purchase contracts. I honestly don’t see the time savings in a lot of this stuff. Cops are the same way for me. And to me the inspection and the sales grid are the most important parts of the appraisal. I don’t have any problem taking my time on them.

A professional service isn’t supposed to push productivity to the point where the professionalism slacks

It's the only thing these products can offer. Appraisal was not meant to be a speed race. It's all very sad.

 

[Alsie35]

I have no idea what any of that means. But I’ve been with them for 22 years and I’ve been happy with the product. I don’t like any of the new formats that I’m seeing honestly, but that wasn’t a software company doing. And I don’t have much interest in supporting those new fancy tech Bros you see all over LinkedIn. They might mesmerize the old white men in the profession, but not me.

If you don't have any idea what any of that means, you obviously didn't watch the promo video that click forms put out for their new appraising online 3.6 superhighway.

Do yourself a favor, and don't watch it! It's one of those things that you can't forget once you've listened to it, and not in a good way!

But seriously, if Bradford click forms works for you, and you are young enough to be able to update your tech savvy, and more importantly to want to do it, party down. I am grateful to them for providing a free temporary membership to those of us who had to endure the ACI First American hack 2 month outage a few years ago. I found click forms to be intuitive, and much prettier to look at than ACI, though it took me longer per report.

As they say, stay with the devil that you know.

 

[George Hatch]

You missed my point. The point was that the decisions buyers make drive the market, not artificial levels of consistency that AI strives for.

You're apparently missing the point that appraisers and AVMs don't drive the market, AI-enabled or not. They just observe/report what the market participants are doing. The consistency of that observe/report is what I'm referring to.

Speaking of consistency, a calculator or a spreadsheet does not "strive for an artificial level of consistency". They just operate consistently. If there's an error it's occurring at the model specification and calibration stages, not at the operation of the machine itself. Same as what happens in appraisals.

Let's say the AI-enabled AVM or appraisal is consistently 5% high or 5% low, those inaccuracies being measurable via a feedback loop. If a lender or other decision knows they're always 5% high or 5% low they can adjust their decision making accordingly. That's the utility of analytical consistency.
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Serious question: Consistent isn't the same thing as accurate or reasonable; it's just consistent.
So which would you expect to return a more consistent result? 5,000 appraisals performed by 1,000 appraisers or that same 5,000 appraisals performed by a single AI-enabled AVM or AI-enabled appraiser or whatnot?