'The Sky is Falling' Narrative

[Randolph Kinney]

The Fed put is the general idea that the Federal Reserve is willing and able to adjust monetary policy in a way that is bullish for the stock market.

The thinking is that there is a “Fed put” on the stock market, meaning with the Fed ready to cut interest rates, how much downside could there be for the market? But that question gets trickier with the stock market carving out new highs, and an upcoming earnings season that is forecast to see profits decline.

The Fed 'put' could insulate stocks from trade wars, send the Dow to 28,000

With a potentially negative earnings season looming, investors see easy Fed policy as the security blanket the stock market needs as it breaks to new highs.

www.cnbc.com

 

[CANative]

Meanwhile, it has been ordered that “our great American companies” .dot dot dot,. dah dot dot dot “immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. "

 

[Pittsburgh Pete]

Latest forecast: 2.2 percent — August 16, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.2 percent on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.2 percent to 0.7 percent.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.frbatlanta.org

With current mess going on with China, future GDP will be declining.

One would think that a major corporate tax cut (and one for the wealthy) would have had an impact on GDP growth which continues at the same pace as the last 8 years.

 

[Pittsburgh Pete]

Meanwhile, it has been ordered that “our great American companies” .dot dot dot,. dah dot dot dot “immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. "

The King, the Chosen One, has spoken!!! It is all just so simple, ain't it?

 

[CANative]

People like Kings and dictators because thinking and deciding is too hard.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

President Donald Trump will hike tariff rates on most imports from China in response to the latest shots in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies, he said Friday.

The White House will raise existing duties on $250 billion in Chinese products to 30% from 25% on Oct. 1, the president tweeted. The tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese goods set to take effect Sept. 1 will now be 15% instead of 10%, he added.

Trump will raise tariff rates on Chinese goods in response to trade war retaliation

Trump said he will raise tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30% and hike duties on another $300 billion in products to 15%.

www.cnbc.com

Looks like a trade war that is spiraling out of control. Needless to say, downward pressure on the stock market. The FED put may come sooner rather than later. For sure, September is going to be a brutal month for the markets.

 

[Pittsburgh Pete]

Fortunately trade wars are easy to win--or so I've heard.

 

[CANative]

I'm getting so tired of winning.

 

[Pittsburgh Pete]

I'm getting so tired of winning.

You are hereby ordered to quit getting tired!!!

 

[RCA]

Trump will keep increasing tariffs and so will China - at least until next summer or maybe until after the election. The Fed will have to lower interest rates, - if necessary Powell will get rotated out or fired. In the meantime, jobs come home. Long term good, as long as Trump can get himself reelected. But that gets difficult. He needs to have some sit down discussions with the American public about buying American, - otherwise people will just keep buying Chinese, - at least as long as the price is right. And since the Chinese will keep lowering the value of the Yuan another year or so, the price will be right. Murder it is, at least for another year.

- Oh but if the interest rate just happens to get lowered another point, s o me e h o w, then it might be smooth sailing. But lowering the tax rate? - Not a chance of that, no one but Trump wants us to take that course.