Bruce- I think at the end of the day, if appraisers got smart and organized, we could develop a better mousetrap, so to speak, and end up providing a more useful service that might even be more profitable even at a lower price point. Remember that USPAP has NO inspection requirement. Just a certification statement that you did or did not. Hey change is hard. I'm just suggesting that it might not be so bad in the end!!
Fannie is developing a better mousetrap that suits them, ...the problem is, whether they design it or we design it, the LOWER PRICE POINT, even if it takes less time , will not be more profitable, it will be less profitable if same # or fewer due to waivers of volume is present from lending pipeline.
If 1000 loans needing 1000 URAR now is the avg in an area , and they pay $325 low end AMC to $450 direct, and a larg percent of that work gets replaced with new, lower pay products in $100-$150 range, there are STILL only 1000 orders- so, income plunges by half or more.
That is why for res appraisal,unless appraisers develop another pipeline of work direct from consumers, the income if massive change reduces the product and fees on lender end, income/profitability will be greatly diminished- perhaps far fewer appraisers then or it becomes mainly a part time gig or cubicle staff jot, with a small number of independent appraises perhaps able to make decent money doing more complex and review work.