Waiting For Btc To Hit 4000-3800, Then All Balls In!

[DTB]

what's going on right now in crypto just doesn't feel right to me

Trade what you see, not what you feel.

 

[Joe Flacco]

meh, not sure about that unless we are talking about something going to zero.

Just depends on the traders strategy I guess. I don't use stops and will go negative big on my position if it goes against me so I have to get in at a price I think it will revisit.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Trade what you see, not what you feel.

That's what they say but I think that only applies to normal human emotions. Greed / Fear. FOMO. Don't trade on normal or natural feelings and emotions. When you understand that these natural feelings and emotions cause the trader to make bad decisions then that is a advantage.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Trade what you see, not what you feel.

Good advice, but I can see a lot of feel right now.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Good advice, but I can see a lot of feel right now.

Natural human emotions is the main difference between winners and losers in the market. It is all psychological. Being able to buy fear and sell greed or stay on the sidelines when you have fomo.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't know. Maybe there are people out there that are profitable in the market following widely accepted rules and ideas. All I know is it didn't work for me and I lost money for years making decisions like that. Trading patterns and breakouts with stops. "Trading what I see". Most of the time market faked me out and then took out my stop and then rocketed higher after I get stopped out. I'm convinced there are parties out there that use these widely accepted rules and ideas to their advantage to take everybodys money. Market is a mechanism of wealth transfer from the majority to a few. Mechanism of wealth transfer from the 90% of losing traders to the 10%.

I didn't become profitable until I understood this. Best thing to do with chart patterns is identify obvious patterns and then buy where majority places their stops.

 

[DTB]

I am not in BTC, never got into it but a chart is a chart. Is it surprising that we have a stall/ minor pullback where we did?
Not if we look at the swing high in July 2018. Came within 1% of that high and scampered back. Next higher high will take it to 10K and pause.

To me, those areas do not demonstrate emotion but simple supply/demand within the auction theory. Buyers dried up around 10K last time BTC was there. I would not be looking for price to move through an area on a chart where demand is weak.

You nailed the area from 9/2017 as an area where sellers dried up before as the bottom. Supply ran out and demand stepped in. Huge runup. Difference this time is there are areas of overhead resistance. Last time was blue sky.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The moment in the last cycle that everybody thinks it is in is October 2015 when BTC was around the $400's. What majority is thinking right now is that BTC is about to make a move to like $300k or so in the next couple years.

 

[Joe Flacco]

EVERYBODY is watching this chart and is expecting it to do the same thing as 2016/2017. Go hit the upper trend line in a next couple years. It could. So my plan as of right now is to buy at the 50 week EMA which is around $5,500. $5,500 is about a 35% pullback from recent highs. See if it can ride a rising 50 week EMA like last time. I'm just saying I remain skeptical because this is what the majority is looking at and thinking and I would not be surprised if it ends up going back down to the recent lows or maybe it just goes straight up. All I know is what everybody is seeing and thinking right now is too obvious. This is the mainstream idea or thought in crypto space right now. Way too obvious for me to convinced that it is doing exactly what it did in 2016/2017.

 

[Joe Flacco]

And then you look at alts and many are still below declining 50 week EMA or punched through this week but getting rejected and pushed back below. Price action these next few weeks will tell us a lot. It is either bitcoin is lying, the alts are lying, or bitcoin and some alts are going higher while other alts are not.