Waiting For Btc To Hit 4000-3800, Then All Balls In!

[James Micozzi]

Who would you rather take investment advice from then? Your investment professional that can't beat the market?

If you need advice to make investment decisions then you are better off just buying the SPY on a regular basis.

Your reply just solidifies my statement about taking investment advice from anyone on this forum. SMH.

 

[DTB]

The tape and indicators definitely giving the look like it will be trending to ATH. My intuition says this is a sharp counter trend move and downtrend will resume or at least retest the low. We will see what happens. I feel no rush to get in. If it is going to $100k, $200k, $300k+ over the long term then I don't mind getting in higher.

I don't follow?
We had a YUGE correction down to the predicted levels. No entry.
Couple of smaller pullbacks that didn't interest you. No entry.
Waiting for a retest of the earlier described low. That chart doesn't look like that will happen.

We will see what happens. THAT I understand.
If it is going to $100k, $200k, $300k+ over the long term then I don't mind getting in higher. THAT I don't understand.

You'd be more comfortable getting in at 8 or 10 than 4,5 or 6.
Splain that to this oldtimer because that looks like chasing to me.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't follow?
We had a YUGE correction down to the predicted levels. No entry.
Couple of smaller pullbacks that didn't interest you. No entry.
Waiting for a retest of the earlier described low. That chart doesn't look like that will happen.

We will see what happens. THAT I understand.
If it is going to $100k, $200k, $300k+ over the long term then I don't mind getting in higher. THAT I don't understand.

You'd be more comfortable getting in at 8 or 10 than 4,5 or 6.
Splain that to this oldtimer because that looks like chasing to me.

Well your boy missed the bottom. Maybe I am just pissed.

I don't know when it is going to $100k, $200k, $300k+ or if it even is. If it is going lower below $3,000 before going there and it takes several more years, do you still want to buy at 4, 5, or 6 now?

If you bought at $4, $5, or $6 then you sitting pretty right now. I started getting FOMO at $4 and I didn't have any money in my account and then I didn't want to chase at $5 the day next day and $6. So I am on the sideline. If you bought at $4, $5, and $6 then you sit back and relax. I wouldn't keep adding on these little 5-10-15% dips around $8.

I'm saying as of TODAY and the price TODAY I would rather get in at like 10 or 12 AFTER whenever it makes a higher low with a 30-40% pullback. It is either that for buy the 30-40% pullback whenever that happens. I am comfortable with both of those scenarios over buying today. All there is is a sharp move straight up off the low. There is no higher low or higher high yet. It's just a sharp move straight up. From here it could easily pull back and make a higher low. Then start making lower highs and lower lows again.

If it put in a proper bottom I would be more convinced the bottom is in.

 

[Joe Flacco]

If it keeps going up straight to ATH without a pullback then too bad for me. It could easily do what it did in 2018 again from here. I don't trade or invest based on 85% or 2 year cycles or whatever.

 

[DTB]

Well your boy missed the bottom. Maybe I am just pissed.

I don't know when it is going to $100k, $200k, $300k+ or if it even is. If it is going lower below $3,000 before going there and it takes several more years, do you still want to buy at 4, 5, or 6 now?

If you bought at $4, $5, or $6 then you sitting pretty right now. I started getting FOMO at $4 and I didn't have any money in my account and then I didn't want to chase at $5 the day next day and $6. So I am on the sideline. If you bought at $4, $5, and $6 then you sit back and relax. I wouldn't keep adding on these little 5-10-15% dips around $8.

I'm saying as of TODAY and the price TODAY I would rather get in at like 10 or 12 AFTER whenever it makes a higher low with a 30-40% pullback. It is either that for buy the 30-40% pullback whenever that happens. I am comfortable with both of those scenarios over buying today. All there is is a sharp move straight up off the low. There is no higher low or higher high yet. It's just a sharp move straight up. From here it could easily pull back and make a higher low. Then start making lower highs and lower lows again.

If it put in a proper bottom I would be more convinced the bottom is in.

You know I'm busting your chops here. But...do we ever really know?

I have no idea where these crazy top end numbers are from, I don't trade crypto, however when I believe in a stock for the long haul, I do feel it's better to buy at 52 week lows than it is to watch go up 100-200-300% and then hope there's a significant pullback so that I can get in at some multiple of the low $.

My chart reading is suspect, I suspect.

 

[Joe Flacco]

You know I'm busting your chops here. But...do we ever really know?

I have no idea where these crazy top end numbers are from, I don't trade crypto, however when I believe in a stock for the long haul, I do feel it's better to buy at 52 week lows than it is to watch go up 100-200-300% and then hope there's a significant pullback so that I can get in at some multiple of the low $.

My chart reading is suspect, I suspect.

I'm not putting in pennies so I'm willing to be patient. Plus it is not like it is the only opportunity.

Let's say I bought here today at $8,800 expecting that a 30-40% pull back is possible. Where is my stop then? So I might have to expect a worst case draw down to $5,500. Then what if it puts in the higher low at $5,500 and then it fails to make a higher high above $8,800? You don't know if it is a lower high below $8,800 until it makes a lower low below the $5,500. Then is my stop below the higher low of $5,500? Then I am going to lose half my money. I'd rather do nothing TODAY. At least if I buy whenever the 30-40% pullback happens then I know that if it makes a lower high and lower low below where I got in I lose only a little bit.

 

[DTB]

I'm not putting in pennies so I'm willing to be patient. Plus it is not like it is the only opportunity.

Let's say I bought here today at $8,800 expecting that a 30-40% pull back is possible. Where is my stop then? So I might have to expect a worst case draw down to $5,500. Then what if it puts in the higher low at $5,500 and then it fails to make a higher high above $8,800? You don't know if it is a lower high below $8,800 until it makes a lower low below the $5,500. Then is my stop below the higher low of $5,500? Then I am going to lose half my money. I'd rather do nothing TODAY. At least if I buy whenever the 30-40% pullback happens then I know that if it makes a lower high and lower low below where I got in I lose only a little bit.

NOBODY (but you) cares what your expectations are and anything is ALWAYS possible.

You put your stop where you think it's appropriate and use that range to size your bet. Only wish to risk 1,000 bucks and your stop would be 500 away from entry, you buy 2 units. There is no perfect spot to hide your stop.

I am not saying where to pull the trigger but if it is anywhere around here, you could go in with half and hold half for when/if it hits your 5,500 and average in.

As much as we both like the analytics, sizing your trade is really the only way to control risk.

In my prior post of buying at 52 week lows, is that the bottom or a falling knife? I don't know but I keep dry powder so that if it falls another X% I can buy some more and see what happens. Never full boat on the 1st tranche for me.

Hopefully the give and take makes us both better traders though I am almost exclusively investing while only trading CL futures on Fridays and Sundays.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Not a bad time to start adding some index leaps. I think could pull back 2-3% more in which case I'll buy more leaps.

 

[James Mpls]

@Joe Flacco: just keep waiting and watching. Been reading you hemming and hawing here for a year or longer it seems and you are still a no coiner? Just buy in small increments, watch your Dca and relax... geez man!

 

[Joe Flacco]

@Joe Flacco: just keep waiting and watching. Been reading you hemming and hawing here for a year or longer it seems and you are still a no coiner? Just buy in small increments, watch your Dca and relax... geez man!

Oh. Don't worry. I will keep waiting and watching.