Data Cancer found....

[alebrewer]

Thank you, Karen.

 

[Surf Cat]

I mean, theoretically, any outlier transaction could be classified as 'non arm's length' insofar as (again - theoretically speaking) if someone overpays for a property, it can be assumed they were either: (1) not well informed, or (2) not acting in their best interest. The flip could be argued as well - if a seller sells under market, then they're either not well informed, or not acting in their best interest...

Right..... appraisers as the outsider looking in with a non- biased view, are trying to determine market value as defined. When we are looking at the data for the subject property, we see the probate sale for example, which was sold as is without any upgrading, staging, Etc. Maybe it sold at market value in a hot market.... maybe it sat with an extended DOM and it sold below the median trend. But it is indicated as a probate sale in the MLS. "We" get to decide whether it's a viable indicator of value or not.
 
A waiver is listed as a "standard" sale. Again, maybe it's in line with the median sales prices, maybe it's not. Users of the data, especially in valuation, should be given a heads up. That way, we can determine whether it's an outlier or not and explain in our analysis within the report.

Waivers are just going to ramp up and get more prevalent. The lenders have the money and the lobbying power. The appraisers are in the dinghy bailing out water so it doesn't sink....

 

[George Hatch]

Bad deals are made during good times. This isn't the first example we've seen of lenders doing things with their underwriting that we thought was foolish and short sighted, and it probably won't be the last. Way of the world.


Any dumb plan can and will make money when times are good. We can only see what is feasible for the long haul when times are hard. At one time the lenders thought ARMs and stated incomes were a feasible program. Not so much anymore, though.

 

[GWISC]

A borrower obtaining a mortgage may not even know that the offer they are making on a property will result in a waiver. I understand waivers will result in more loans with collateral not being checked by an appraisal. If the logic is that waivers are seen as overpriced outliers simply because the price is not double checked by an appraisal, then cash sales should be avoided too (BTW, the vast majority of cash deals do not involve an appraisal, a few, yes, but most not).

I just think the arguments the video displayed, based on one anecdotal example, does not lead me to the same conclusion as the hosts. Sorry, not enough data to draw a conclusion. Just one sale, based on a price one buyer was willing to pay.

Again, I am not a fan of waivers. I think they can be dangerous, but the video's illustration is not evidence they cause inflated prices.

I think the real danger will be when fraudsters start manipulating the waiver system to get more loans to close.

 

[Mejappz]

Instructing the ignorant is a spiritual act of mercy, so what better place to do that than here? Merry Christmas, Phil!

 

[Artemis Fowl]

Well! That was certainly a fun 24 hours! Such passion in this thread!

Mr. Hatch.... I would respectfully request that you wait until I release the final report on my "Data Cancer" analysis. It will be out in January.
Please review and then feel free to crucify me at will.

Since you were able to find my home, my backyard, and my deer, I'm sure it would have been easy for you to locate my email and phone number as well. I think a true professional would have reached out privately to ask questions instead of obnoxiously thrashing me on this forum.

We may have had a nice constructive conversation. I may have invited you to visit my beloved Cincinnati and had you over for dinner at my home. I could have served you a steaming plate of smoked venison with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. But... sadly that didn't happen.... and that's my loss.

I do appreciate you spending nearly 24 hours on this topic. I would estimate a certified general appraiser in Carlsbad probably commands a billing rate of $400.00 per hour, so I figured you spent $9600.00 worth of energy and professional time on.... well... me.

I'm honored but I'm not going to pay that invoice. I recommend sending it to the GSE's. They'll pay it. Don't forget to include a copy of your W-9.

To everyone else... This is my first post on A.F. and I want to say thank you for listening to the show for the past ten years!
Kevin and I will continue advocating for the appraisal profession and we have a great line up scheduled for 2025!

We truly appreciate you listenership!
Happy Holidays!

Phil Crawford / VOA

Welcome to the Forum...wear a cup.
Who are you?

 

[J Grant]

A borrower obtaining a mortgage may not even know that the offer they are making on a property will result in a waiver. I understand waivers will result in more loans with collateral not being checked by an appraisal. If the logic is that waivers are seen as overpriced outliers simply because the price is not double checked by an appraisal, then cash sales should be avoided too (BTW, the vast majority of cash deals do not involve an appraisal, a few, yes, but most not).

I just think the arguments the video displayed, based on one anecdotal example, does not lead me to the same conclusion as the hosts. Sorry, not enough data to draw a conclusion. Just one sale, based on a price one buyer was willing to pay.

Again, I am not a fan of waivers. I think they can be dangerous, but the video's illustration is not evidence they cause inflated prices.

I think the real danger will be when fraudsters start manipulating the waiver system to get more loans to close.

As I understand it, the buyer applies for financing, and a lender submits the property and buyer info to Fannie or freddie and they run an AVM , see the LTV % etc and then they decide if it qualifies for a d for a WAIER. The lender informs the borrower, and they can accept or reject the WAIVER offer.

I might be wrong, but what I have read indicates that is roughly how it happens.

 

[Dublin ohio]

It's great to see you on the forum, Phil. I hope you post more often. In addition to doxing your home, he also called you a liar and an idiot.

View attachment 94755

I used to listen to every Crawford show. But it became too much like a talk show with too much useless banter. Haven't listened to it for about 5 years. Maybe he has changed his format

 

[George Hatch]

Same as this forum in that respect

 

[Alsie35]

I used to listen to every Crawford show. But it became too much like a talk show with too much useless banter. Haven't listened to it for about 5 years. Maybe he has changed his format

I have occasionally listened to this podcast when its been linked on AF, and I will generally agree with you and add these two points:

1. It IS entertaining to listen to, and the hosts do a good job in that regard;

2. But it also does "skim the surface" and it also does emphasize "sensationalism" over substance.

#2 was amply demonstrated in this episode - and ably critiqued by George Hatch.

Having made those points, my overall take is that it is an occasionally worthwhile listen, for the entertainment as much as for the occasional nugget of interesting info.