Global Economy Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

Iceland Shows Ireland Did ‘Wrong Things’ Saving Banks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-things-saving-banks-instead-of-taxpayer.html

 

[Austin]

I just received an interesting e-mail from the state AI chapter. They are broke. They make their money with CE but offered 30 classes last year and 15 cancelled for lack of enrollment. Enrollment is dropping like flies and projected to continue tanking. Problem is: The damn national AI is killing them with online classes. Closed 2010 $42,000 in the red. They have already cut the budget to the raw bone. They asked for ideas to raise funds. I started to suggest a bake sale. If that wasn’t bad enough the Appraisal Foundation is getting into the CE racket too. That cuts into the AI’s turf. Bad blood between those two.
AI is changing its business model to a super elite membership class of appraisers. So, the state chapter is raising dues and has appointed a committee to develop a model of their own, or in other words to try and figure what the hell relevance they are.
I see a turf war developing. AI national vs state chapters and the Appraisal Foundation against all things AI. I told you guys CE was nothing but a racketeering operation. The rats are fighting over scraps.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Your AI local should develop marketing programs that aren't appraisal related such as offering the membership health insurance at a discount.

AI is shooting itself in the foot.

 

[Big ole Boy]

We are still the largest export? - maybe not

Limbaugh tells us based on exports in dollars ... we are still the largest exporter in the world ...... $3 Trillion dollars last year ....... China exports only 46% of that ...

.... however, what is missing in these numbers ...... is the kind of exports it its ....... its most likely export dollars in the hands of fewer and fewer worker hours ...

.... while Limbaugh may brag about how the US is still the largest exporter in the world ..... these export dollars are in the hands of fewer and fewer people ....

... I'd guess that the number of jobs created to build and sell a fighter jet for a billion dollars is far fewer jobs than it takes to sell and export a billion dollars worth of more ubiquitous items (ie. ,hammers, clothes, things made with labor. ) .... our export dollars are highly service related .....

..... information services, etc .....

... in terms of tonage (weight) ..... my guess is ..... that China exports way more than we do in terms of tonnage (stuff) ...

...... so the worker .... is out on his butt .......

....

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Limbaugh tells us based on exports in dollars ... we are still the largest exporter in the world ...... $3 Trillion dollars last year ....... China exports only 46% of that ...

.... however, what is missing in these numbers ...... is the kind of exports it its ....... its most likely export dollars in the hands of fewer and fewer worker hours ...

.... while Limbaugh may brag about how the US is still the largest exporter in the world ..... these export dollars are in the hands of fewer and fewer people ....

... I'd guess that the number of jobs created to build and sell a fighter jet for a billion dollars is far fewer jobs than it takes to sell and export a billion dollars worth of more ubiquitous items (ie. ,hammers, clothes, things made with labor. ) .... our export dollars are highly service related .....

..... information services, etc .....

... in terms of tonage (weight) ..... my guess is ..... that China exports way more than we do in terms of tonnage (stuff) ...

...... so the worker .... is out on his butt .......

....

You got the principle right; labor intensive versus capital intensive. Now who is the end customer of both? U.S. consumers for labor intensive consumables. The U.S. government for capital intensive items like military hardware and systems.

However, banks are the largest consumers of computers with the governments in second.

What we don't produce or we are producing less each year is energy. A country's standard of living is measured indirectly by its consumption of energy. The ability to maintain or grow our standard of living is based in part on efficiency or productivity.

We have reached the point where we can't grow our productivity or our consumption with out huge amounts of debt since we don't produce what we consume.

 

[JSmith43]

New TV Show:

The Biggest Losers 2:

The treasurers from states and small countries on stage, give a retrospective view of their government's gluttonous borrowing and accumulation of future obligations.

The viewers watch in stunned silence as example after example of drunken sailor binges on what was spun to be investments in future health and economic well being are power pointed their way.

But, that was last year. Now the contestants ready themselves for comparison and drop the metaphorical towels around their balance sheets.

Who was the biggest loser this time? Who was the greatest disappointment?

The post crowning interview, full of on cue tears tells the story.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

In China, Tentative Steps Toward Global Currency

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/business/global/11yuan.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha25

China is the world’s second-largest economy after the United States. It needs to make its currency a fully convertible reserve currency. But can China stand the pressure that comes with a reserve currency on trade, economics and political leadership?

In order to lead, one has to take positions that does not always favor oneself. In fact, it is just the opposite.

 

[Restrain]

Mubarak has stepped down in Egypt, left Cairo; Switzerland has frozen his accounts. Now, stocks are back up, oil trending back down. However.......end game TBD.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The damn national AI is killing them with online classes. ..

on line classes are the worst of all outcomes for the average appraiser imho...dumbs down the profession even more.

started to suggest a bake sale.

kick 'em when they are down, Austin

AI is changing its business model to a super elite membership class

In other words SRAs need not apply... this is MAI country. They will look more like ASFMRA if that is the case... perhaps the will merge with the Commercial Brokers group. They cooperate a lot here.

So, the state chapter.. figure what the hell relevance they are.

A good chapter is great. Anything less is a waste of time...

I do not share the media's enthusaism for "regime Change" in Egypt and do not see it becoming a US style democracy. Yep. It will be one man, one vote, one time and a more radical Iranian style "democracy" with rigged elections and an increasingly hostile posture towards Israel.

As for the Import / Export issue. China fills their shipping containers with electronics, clothes, shoes, and furniture. We ship them back full of raw leather, scrap metal, and raw products like cotton... The "value added" products are made there...And tens of thousands of containers are stranded here, being sold locally for $1800 to use for storage buildings. We export food and cotton to Europe...what else? dang little. But our companies are doing OK because LEVIs still popular overseas and made in the US in years gone by - thus benefitting us - are now made in other nations and exported from there to Europe. Those overseas profits look good to stockholders but never come back to the US... never pay a tax and benefit the American economy none whatsoever.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Wisconsin May Take an Ax to State Workers’ Benefits and Their Unions

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/us/12unions.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha23

Things to come - more states and cities view unions as the problem.

National Guard was ready to step in to handle state duties, if need be.