Housing Bubble Bursting?

[The Warrior Monk]

At 91 pages, this thread is a bubble.
And it's full of hot air. :new_llying:

And very one-sided...I'm still waiting for the other side to present it's case...I'm seeing how to invest in real estate, but continuing to fail to see how it's relevant to the discussion.

 

[Big ole Boy]

News starved .....

We are news starved ...... at least I am .....

.... ever notice as the internet expands ..... "real news" seems to conintue on the decline ....

.... people are hungry for info ...... frustrated for info .....

... so bubblicious pours out of the appraiser pores .....

 

[Billy Johnson]

Builder Incentives

Beazer Homes is offering a 1.8% first year, 4.8 balance of 30 year fixed. Since I couldn't come up with a 10% down, they offered me a 3% rebate ($21,570) for upgrades from design center instead. As well, they are paying closing costs ($15,000). They eliminated all lot premiums, and I have a panoramic view ($20,000). They are giving me a 3% landscape credit for a rear yard ($21,570). I get a 4% Broker Coop credit ($28,760). That's $106,900.

Tell me that their sales haven't fallen off to offer that.

 

[Big ole Boy]

Billy,

Thats news .... thanks ....

 

[Mike Simpson]

"And very one-sided...I'm still waiting for the other side to present it's case...I'm seeing how to invest in real estate, but continuing to fail to see how it's relevant to the discussion."

At this point all we can do is smile & shake our heads.

You see what you want to see...read what you want to read.

This thread IS HEAVILY weighted to one side (inevitable bubble).

If there's a balance between those who believe in a bubble & those who don't...those who don't aren't showing up in similar numbers to write about it (though to be fair...a couple have started posting copies of articles debating the bubble).

I've given plenty of information & sources I study to arrive @ my conclusions, but what's so often focused on by those who believe in a bubble...is the fact I invest.

The fact I've successfully invested & profited in such a short period of time is but one example I give that I'm reading the markets correctly. After all...how is one to profit by buying high & selling low?

Some would have you believe I'm just lucky...but I'm saying my success is attributed in large part to what I learned as an appraiser; define the problem...gather the data...and reconcile the information. Be unbiased & don't rely on someone else's conclusions unless you feel they're bonafide.

Unfortunately, there's an element here that resents anybody who doesn't believe or think like themselves. There's yet another element that appears to think making money is equated with evil...that desiring more equals greed.

We'll never agree & they make it impossible to share rational ideas. They see what I & others do as a "Ponsi Scheme" and "conspiring to commit fraud" and have said so in no uncertain terms.

-Mike

 

[The Warrior Monk]

I've given plenty of information & sources I study to arrive @ my conclusions, but what's so often focused on by those who believe in a bubble...is the fact I invest.

The fact I've successfully invested & profited in such a short period of time is but one example I give that I'm reading the markets correctly. After all...how is one to profit by buying high & selling low?

So is the fact that I was buying technology stocks when the NASDAQ was crashing, and the fact that I made money off of them, evidence that the NASDAQ never crashed? Following your line of thinking, that would indeed have to be the case.

 

[DTB]

So is the fact that I was buying technology stocks when the NASDAQ was crashing, and the fact that I made money off of them, evidence that the NASDAQ never crashed? Following your line of thinking, that would indeed have to be the case.

Little different scenario don't you think? Do houses have 10% daily swings? And with that level of liquidity?

I've played Coldwater Creek several times in 2006, made money, do I give stock advice? No, because I am not an expert in stocks, just RE.

The main reason it is foolish for appraisers of all people to bang the bubble drum is that the market and micro markets are soooooo local. How do feel when Joe H.O. quotes the paper saying prices have gone up zzz%. Really makes a lot of sense as to what HIS house has done.

This is the same argument appraisers are now making about the bubble.

Ridiculous, know your OWN market first.

 

[Big ole Boy]

AM I sensing anger in here?

I think people are just fed up with all the lying .......

 

[Austin]

Will They Ever Learn? Getting Tired of Trying

Back in the late 90’s I discovered a remote and little used discussion forum. I don’t remember the name of the fourm but I called it the library because there were very few posters and very deep and detailed discussion of economic policy. I called the forum the library because it made me feel like I was in a back room of a library whispering to the person across the table.:new_sleeping:
The subject one night was price/earnings ratios on equity stocks. At the time many equity stocks had price earnings ratios of 30 to 60. I posted that in my view those ratios were asinine because I worked out the math and to justify that ratio would require a compound rate of growth of 8% infinitum and that was just not sane. I then was engaged into a heated debate with someone that worked at the NY Stock Exchange.
I was told in no uncertain terms that I knew nothing about the equity stock market. He stated that if I wanted to buy stocks with PE ratios of 10 or less to go for it, there were plenty available. He further stated that plenty of knowledgeable people were making huge sums at those high ratios and that I was out of my element in discussing issues of this complexity. The fundamentals were sound at those rates, according to him. You had to be really smart to understand the logic of PE ratios in the 30 to 60 range according to him too. You all know the rest of the story.
Now the same crowd that created the stock bubble has moved over to the housing market and created a housing bubble and this thread I started is dejavu all over again. I think I posted this saga about 30 pages back. My brother-in-law’s best buddy in Atlanta worked for some big industry that makes telephone equipment. Their stock was one of the big tech stocks but I can't remember the name of the company. He had his entire retirement tied up in company stock. The stock went from about $95 per share to like $3 per share. He is now driving a school bus for $14,000 per year. He still has his stock though. I hear that if you hold on to stock long enough, in the long run you will come out a winner. Same goes for real estate I guess. If you live long enough that is. I purchased four steers once for $450. Kept them a year and doubled their weight. Sold them for $450. I told a cattle man this saga and his reply was: "Yea Austin, but you had the use of them steers for a year."

 

[Mike Simpson]

David Wimpelberg: "So is the fact that I was buying technology stocks when the NASDAQ was crashing, and the fact that I made money off of them, evidence that the NASDAQ never crashed? Following your line of thinking, that would indeed have to be the case."

Mike Neff: "Little different scenario don't you think? Do houses have 10% daily swings? And with that level of liquidity?

A LOT different line of thinking...and not MY line of thinking David (you're projecting).

The Housing Bubble theory CAME FROM (was born of) the bursting of the stock market bubble. People summized..."well gee...since it happened in the stock market...why couldn't it happen in the housing markets as well."

I first began to hear this correlation some six years ago in the sensationalist media--and like George's analogy of "a hundred chattering monkeys in the jungle"--it's grown somewhat ever since. I personally think those who've picked up the chant have a negative bias to begin with, and seem easily influenced by others negative thinking (not an intentional slam...just my personal observation).

However, for every "chattering monkey" there appears to be an equal or greater number of Squawking Parrots who take a different viewpoint.

"I think people are just fed up with all the lying..."

If we go back and read David R. Stevenson's recent posts...I think we can begin to see AN HONEST glimpse of how the other side thinks. David's honest & truthful about how he views events.

I find this mindset rather dreary, but at least it's honest, and David's not alone to be sure.

If we think "everybody's lying"...if we feel uncomfortable being around people who're succeeding...if we think there's going to be a second coming of The Great Depression (as others have stated)...then our preconceived notions (an Appraiser's Cardinal Sin) are going to influence how we view this issue.

-Mike