Grooming habits?
The Premier Online Community for Real Estate Appraisers!
-
Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online
community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.
"Inflation is coming down"
- Thread starter Elliott
- Start date
Wow you must have a real bromance with him. I guess the rest of us mortals aren't as good as predicting the future as you two.
Fernando
Elite Member
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2016
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- California
Who is Zeihan? What is his background?Grooming habits?
Mike Ault
Elite Member
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2004
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- Texas
He was an analyst for these folks for a while until he went out on his own...
Stratfor: The World's Leading Geopolitical Intelligence Platform
worldview.stratfor.com
RCA
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
Peter Zeihan - Wikipedia
His education background is not particularly impressive. But, he has a knack for looking at the entire world and connecting all the dice.
He is very, rather overly, steadfast in many of his views. He is a bit recklesss. He has been very wrong on more than one occasion. He admits his miscalculations, such as predicting that the Ukrainians wouldn't last long if invaded by Russia. But, of course, most pundits are wrong. It is a question of degree.
He may be right about Trump not standing a chance of winning the 2024 election.
1. He says the polls don't mean anything until after the conventions, because the independents don't respond to opinion requests until after the conventions, and Trump's election depends critically on the Independent vote.
2. - And he says that based on the 2020 election results, Independents are not going to vote for Trump in significant numbers this time around.
He could be right, he could be wrong. But, it is very clear he is so biased against Trump, one needs to take his Trump opinions with a grain of salt.
I would also question his predictions on the demise of China. I seriously question them. I myself see the outstanding quality of DJI drones, Chinese photographic equipment and accessories first hand - at low cost. There are very many businessmen in the US that would hate seeing such goods banned.
Peter Zeihan is too much of a salesman, he is just as much consumed in creating a populist pro-US posture (to make himself popular) as explaining - to a certain extent - the functional mechanics of various demographic and economic forces on both a national and global level.
With respect to China, what is more likely to happen to China in the worst case, is that the CCP will topple, and China will break up into City States along the coast: Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Xiamen, Fuzhou, and Shenzhen. Each of these will probably be run as separate City States - much like Singapore. They will be geared towards Export-Import, they will mend ties with the West over time. Peter has admitted the latter possibility - but rather than say that the CCP will fail within 10 years, he just says China will fail. He gets paid $50,000-$100,000 for speeches - and often appears at places like the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey:
I like this coment on Reddit:
"He (Peter Zeihan) sells his intelligence and research to corporations and governments and thus talks like a swamp creature and never steps on toes of those in power in America and close “allied” countries. That being said he actually has some really good insight into global markets, trends, and developments. He was one of the first guys sounding the alarm on Russia wanting to take Ukraine and also has been pretty accurate on China. He by no means is perfect but if you listen to one of his hour long lecture you can actually learn some decent stuff on global affairs. You don’t need to listen to more then one though because they’re all pretty similar. This isn’t a guy I exactly trust but he has some good information and analysis on demographics, supply chains, energy markets and a few other things. I watch him like I watch the news, never fully trusting but will to listen to what his arguments because he’s been right in the past on some pretty major stuff.
He’s 100% a spook though because he talks about working with government agencies pretty regularly."
Yes, he spends time at Langley.
Last edited:
RCA
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
Peter Zeihan - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
His education background is not particularly impressive. But, he has a knack for looking at the entire world and connecting all the dice.
He is very, rather overly, steadfast in many of his views. He is a bit recklesss. He has been very wrong on more than one occasion. He admits his miscalculations, such as predicting that the Ukrainians wouldn't last long if invaded by Russia. But, of course, most pundits are wrong. It is a question of degree.
He may be right about Trump not standing a chance of winning the 2024 election.
1. He says the polls don't mean anything until after the conventions, because the independents don't respond to opinion requests until after the conventions, and Trump's election depends critically on the Independent vote.
2. - And he says that based on the 2020 election results, Independents are not going to vote for Trump in significant numbers this time around.
He could be right, he could be wrong. But, it is very clear he is so biased against Trump, one needs to take his Trump opinions with a grain of salt.
I would also question his predictions on the demise of China. I seriously question them. I myself see the outstanding quality of DJI drones, Chinese photographic equipment and accessories first hand - at low cost. There are very many businessmen in the US that would hate seeing such goods banned.
Peter Zeihan is too much of a salesman, he is just as much consumed in creating a populist pro-US posture (to make himself popular) as explaining - to a certain extent - the functional mechanics of various demographic and economic forces on both a national and global level.
With respect to China, what is more likely to happen to China in the worst case, is that the CCP will topple, and China will break up into City States along the coast: Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Xiamen, Fuzhou, and Shenzhen. Each of these will probably be run as separate City States - much like Singapore. They will be geared towards Export-Import, they will mend ties with the West over time. Peter has admitted the latter possibility - but rather than say that the CCP will fail within 10 years, he just says China will fail. He gets paid $50,000-$100,000 for speeches - and often appears at places like the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey:
I like this coment on Reddit:
"He (Peter Zeihan) sells his intelligence and research to corporations and governments and thus talks like a swamp creature and never steps on toes of those in power in America and close “allied” countries. That being said he actually has some really good insight into global markets, trends, and developments. He was one of the first guys sounding the alarm on Russia wanting to take Ukraine and also has been pretty accurate on China. He by no means is perfect but if you listen to one of his hour long lecture you can actually learn some decent stuff on global affairs. You don’t need to listen to more then one though because they’re all pretty similar. This isn’t a guy I exactly trust but he has some good information and analysis on demographics, supply chains, energy markets and a few other things. I watch him like I watch the news, never fully trusting but will to listen to what his arguments because he’s been right in the past on some pretty major stuff.
He’s 100% a spook though because he talks about working with government agencies pretty regularly."
Yes, he spends time at Langley.
Oh yes, he is actually on the Faculty at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA:
Impressive.
OSU Beavers
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2007
- Professional Status
- Licensed Appraiser
- State
- Oregon
Peter Zeihan may be "smart", but he suffers from terminal Trump Derangement Syndrome.
The CPI aggregate up over 20% since Biden!
The CPI aggregate up over 20% since Biden!
RCA
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
Well he curry's favor with the Military and the CIA - and there are certainly factions within the military-industrial complex that do not favor Trump. Under the Biden Administration, in the shadow of the Obama and Republican Establishment administrations, it appears that these factions are more or less in control now. If Trump somehow wins the 2024 election, Peter may have some back-pedaling to do. But, apparently he is not too worried. Who knows what is really going to happen? - There are too many variables.
Last edited:
RCA
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
Come to think of it, Peter Zeihan worked 12 years for Stratfor (www.stratfor.com), which was founded by George Friedman. Stratfor apparently had it's start somehow with Rand Corporation - a well know global policy think tank. I am guessing Peter picked up much of what he knows at Stratfor. He probably couldn't move up beyond VP, took his knowledge and went rogue, more or less. You can be sure he has a much better income now. And, whether Stratfor still maintains a good connection with Peter is probably likely. - Although, when I think about it, the relationship might be a bit sketchy.
Last edited:
