Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[alebrewer]

My question is this. If most RE data is often "seasonally adjusted" wouldn't we be better off using an annualized linear trend rather than trying to adjust on the basis of variation due to the selling season, be it quarterly, monthly or daily?

I have played with several 'non-linear' approaches to data analysis, and none of them make sense. Of all the data sets I've run over the past month, ZERO have resulted in tighter adjusted range using non-linear adjustments relative to using linear adjustments. It's just silly - the data doesn't model that finitely. So for me - I don't expect to use a non-linear approach unless the market is just really going bonkers.

 

[Fernando]

Fixed it

All my years, never been a shout out on 1004MC.
Lenders don't care as long as you have good bulls*t on market trend.

 

[Fernando]

In SF, there are agents that specializes in TIC. Many buyers and agents don't understand them and these specialized agents want to educate other agents and buyers.
More understand, more TIC sales.
Opps, wrong thread. Got confused.

 

[Charles West]

My question is this. If most RE data is often "seasonally adjusted" wouldn't we be better off using an annualized linear trend rather than trying to adjust on the basis of variation due to the selling season, be it quarterly, monthly or daily?

Exactly my question yesterday. An upward trend is just that, irrespective of seasonal variation.

 

[Joe Flacco]

What would help the curve formulas is if it could be something like the volume weighted moving averages. Some way to calculate it so that the higher number of transcation seasons of spring and summer seasons have more influence over the curve compared to the fall and winter seasons. That way you don't the curve doing wacky things based on very few sales.

 

[Fernando]

What would help the curve formulas is if it could be something like the volume weighted moving averages. Some way to calculate it so that the higher number of transcation seasons of spring and summer seasons have more influence over the curve compared to the fall and winter seasons. That way you don't the curve doing wacky things based on very few sales.

So Appraisers need to start thinking like computers.

 

[Joe Flacco]

So Appraisers need to start thinking like computers.

Not like computers. Like a real estate expert. By understanding seasonality and it's impact on the data.

 

[Fernando]

Not like computers. Like a real estate expert. By understanding seasonality and it's impact on the data.

So for decades, appraisers not understanding seasonality in detail have been appraising incorrectly.

 

[Joe Flacco]

So for decades, appraisers not understanding seasonality have been appraising incorrectly.

Yeah, kind of. That is exactly why the number of appraisals below contract price doubles in the spring.

 

[CGinMN]