Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[CGinMN]

Purchase waivers are seasonal too, peaking in the 3rd Quarter. Thoughts on why? I can think of a few explanations.

 

[Fernando]

GSEs guidelines always want comps sold in past 6 months. Thus appraisers are "taught" to give most weight to recent comps and not consider seasonality.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Purchase waivers are seasonal too, peaking in the 3rd Quarter. Thoughts on why? I can think of a few explanations.

View attachment 96532

I wonder why the divergence between Fannie and Freddie. Fannie has backed off pretty significantly in 2023 and 2024 with waiver usage going back to around the same level as 2020. Freddie is continuing to trend higher year after year.

 

[CGinMN]

That is because these totals include inspection based waivers, which are increasing as a proportion of total waivers. Freddie seems to have done a better job rolling out their program.

I can think of a few reasons why purchase waivers are seasonal:
-The typical buyer in peak season is better qualified than in off season.
-GSE AVM confidence increases during peak months once they see what the spring markets does.
-It is also possible the AVM is not accurately picking up on seasonality and overvaluing properties in the 3rd quarter.

Could be none of these things too

 

[J Grant]

That is because these totals include inspection based waivers, which are increasing as a proportion of total waivers. Freddie seems to have done a better job rolling out their program.

I can think of a few reasons why purchase waivers are seasonal:
-The typical buyer in peak season is better qualified than in off season.
-GSE AVM confidence increases during peak months once they see what the spring markets does.
-It is also possible the AVM is not accurately picking up on seasonality and overvaluing properties in the 3rd quarter.

Could be none of these things too

How have you been able to track the number of waivers use in a given time period?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Those are the exact reasons why waiver usage is seasonal.

I don't know if it makes sense that the hybrid roll out is what caused fannies waiver usage to drop.

 

[CGinMN]

This is data I compiled from AEI reports.

 

[CGinMN]

I don't know if it makes sense that the hybrid roll out is what caused fannies waiver usage to drop.

That could be. I am not aware of any source for number on hybrids. But Fannie could be choosing to go that route, while Freddie is pushing more of the PDRs.

 

[Tom D]

I. I just ran a 12 month on a data set from my area. It reflects the data pretty well.

I don't even know how many pages you need to explain what happened each month and why is did, or didn't, affect the continuing trend.

I'm now to the conclusion that my own yearly and quarterly linear trend charts just need a sentence under it saying the market is currently stable, some fluctuations. Unless the new non linear programs give me enough confirmable for dummies verbiage. Why are they all coming out with non linear chart programs. Are they just as confused as to what fannie wants.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Why are they all coming out with non linear chart programs. Are they just as confused as to what fannie wants.

When you have a clientele that won't invest 7 minutes to learn their actual requirements, you can sell them a pretty picture for $19 per month, in perpetuity.