The Decline of the Appraisal Industry: An Unsustainable Future

[Overimprovement]

We might not like AI's cold solution to the problem, which, honestly, would be mass suicide. Most AI programs are made to avoid the most unpleasant outcomes. They won't even accept certain words or concepts as too violent and tend to offer platitudes.

As long as evil people exist, they will use every tool available to carry out their agenda. Consider all the evil on the internet today. Do you suppose the folks who created arpanet envisioned much of it? Do you think the first car makers ever thought their machinery would purposefully be used to kill crowds of people? TNT was simply a yellow dye until some 'other uses' were discovered. Nitroglycerin was a medicine. Dynamite spurred the creation of the Nobel Peace Prize. Let's not ever think evil results will not come from AI. I 100% promise you there are wicked things in the works as we speak.

Gen 6:5-- "The LORD saw that the wickedness of man was great in the earth, and that every imagination of the thoughts of his heart was only evil continually"

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I'm sure you'll find a conspiracy somewhere. I'm glad you're cancer-free.

No conspiracy but I am not too sure incompetence isn't at play.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Nitroglycerin was a medicine

Gives you a helluva headache. Ditto dynamite

Dynamite spurred the creation of the Nobel Peace Prize.

As an apology to the world?

Gen 6:5-- "The LORD saw that the wickedness of man was great in the earth, and that every imagination of the thoughts of his heart was only evil continually"

Kinda apropos today, right? Clearly, we sow the seeds of our own destruction. Atomic energy as an example. Great energy source but Atomic bomb - great way to kill hundreds of thousands in an instance.

 

[J Grant]

We'll I don't know how you don't think it won't be that good yet. It's just started. I recently saw something where horse traders said cars wouldn't be that good.

I'm not saying AI is a solution for all the worlds problems. I'm simply saying that it will affect the appraisal profession and especially any new entry to the field may want to really understand the future of this industry.

FWIW, commercial appraisers won't "knock out 20 a day." What Ive seen of AI it is another money grab by tech guys, though indeed, it will have some profound applications''
t r
WRT cars - are they better than horses? Along with cars came roads, tearing up the land, then distances separating families and then the need for gas to run them, empowering Arab despots and leading to wars, pollution, etc. Yes, cars are great, I have one (I used to have a horse, too, and the horse was better ) -but the cars also brought some tremendous negative changes as well. The point is any tech change is not a free lunch and has a downside - we need to think of the big picture - the smart leaders are wary about AI and are alarmed by it, Not everybody is gushing over how great and efficient it will make everything.

Remember when the internet was in its early stages? They said things like it would change the world, bring people together, bring peace, yada yada. IT has some great uses -( we are on it with this BB), but overall - was it a plus? The internet displaces work, and it is now a source of hate and disinformation, but- we have cat videos! The world is not better off, though, look at the wars and danger out there- people are as nutz as ever. There are lots of information avail with a click, and a downside of social media spreading craziness, ordinary folks are easy to surveil etc,

 

[Overimprovement]

Dynamite spurred the creation of the Nobel Peace Prize.

As an apology to the world?

Partly yes. He was deeply burdened by the subsequent uses of his invention for warfare.

 

[Yuanyin]

FWIW, commercial appraisers won't "knock out 20 a day." What Ive seen of AI it is another money grab by tech guys though indeed, it will have some profound applications''
t r
WRT cars - are they better than horses? Along with cars came roads, tearing up the land, then distances separating families and then the need for gas to run them, empowering Arab despots and leading to wars, pollution, etc. Yes, cars are great, I have one (I used to have a horse, too, and the horse was better ) -but the cars also brought some tremendous negative changes as well. The point is any tech change is not a free lunch and has a downside - we need to think of the big picture - the smart leaders are wary about AI and are alarmed by it, Not everybody is gushing over how great and efficient it will make everything

Remember when the internet was in its early stages? They said things like it would change the world, bring people together, bring peace, yada yada. IT has some great uses -( we are on it with this BB), but overall - was it a plus? The internet displaces work, and it is now a source of hate, disinformation, bit - we can share videos! The world is not better off, though, look at the wars and danger out there- people are as nutz as ever but the down side of social media can spread the craziness.

I'm talking about residential. And they won't be appraisals as we think of today.

Justin Gohn was referencing commercial in his article "the future of commercial estate appraising: when machines take flight"

Smart leaders? lol who? For every Musk there an Altman.

Correct - Appraisers definitely should not be gushing over how great AI is.

I worked in tech in digital subscriber lines and as a fiber optics engineer in the late 90's and early 2000's. Never did I hear people say the internet would bring world peace. It has clearly brought people together in terms of communication etc.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Partly yes.

PS - the prize in economics is awarded by the Bank of Sweden. It is called the "Nobel" prize but there is no Nobel prize for economics.

 

[DTB]

I saw what was to me, the hand writing on the wall right around when UAD came on and I tapped out.

But, I still know a thing or two about valuation and real estate in general and investment specifically.

In 2025 I will bankroll my 23 year old nephew to his first rehab and rent property. The kid has had bad breaks, 2 brain surgeries to remove a tumor, COVID forcing distance learning (which doesn't work for him at all), the 2nd surgery really damaging his short term memory. So, we're going to make applesauce out of road apples so to speak.

The goal is to get him to 25-30 properties before I check out, so that he can make a nice living for himself w/o benefit of an unattainable degree.
I can routinize what needs to be done and he is tech savvy enough to setup online rent payments, applications and things of that nature.

I'm glad I got out and can't imagine fee appraising in today's business environment.

(been away for awhile, in TX seeing my newborn twin grandsons, what an absolute joy)

 

[gregb]

Thanks for sharing an issue many face, the prospects as an appraiser given the headwinds over time for the independent fee shop and whether to pass the torch to kids. Curious if and why you did not consider upgrading to a CG back in the day when some I knew squeaked thru without a 4 year degree?

 

[Yuanyin]

Thanks for sharing an issue many face, the prospects as an appraiser given the headwinds over time for the independent fee shop and whether to pass the torch to kids. Curious if and why you did not consider upgrading to a CG back in the day when some I knew squeaked thru without a 4 year degree?

I began investing in property back in 2000 and have continued to do so up to the present day. Appraisal serves mainly as a supplementary or secondary source of income for me. Although I enjoy doing a couple of appraisals each week, I am consistently disappointed by the lack of organization within the profession. There seems to be no lobbying group, no effective government representation, and no standardization of fees. As one of the pivotal aspects of obtaining a loan, the industry is woefully underrepresented. As surfcat stated earlier, Starbucks employees and hotel cleaners can organize themselves better than appraisers. The Appraisal Institute is inept, and I've not heard a strong public stance from them regarding appraisal fees. I feel their representation is weak. They charge a lot for courses and memberships, and I don't see what you get for it.

And if anyone wonders how broken this industry is. How many appraisers tell their kids to go into the residential appraisal profession.