Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[alebrewer]

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[Tom D]

If you look at pages 15, 16 on the pdf i posted on FHA/fannie thread, updates there is an explanation. They say you don't need a chart, but it appears, from their example, that you have to explain each time adjustment. I'ts a bit too much. They then say there will be a further update in the next fannie news letter. Their written example of time adjustments looks like a non linear explanation. Not sure it can be done without a program.

 

[Joe Flacco]

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I think that datamaster polynomial curve equation is bad. I have no idea what that equation means. But that is what it is spitting out.

This is the same data populated into the MC form. It is not showing a 10% decline from June / August to today.

Look how much one extra dot changed the results. It said you need to make 10-14% downward adjustments from July / August sales for the last couple months. Now today, with the addition of one more dot, it is only 5% downward adjustment.

Stuff like this is not usable.

 

[alebrewer]

Just gave Jim Amorin's app a try. He did it in html and calculates a 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, and 12 month trend. Pretty interesting - and very simple to use.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Imagine if you were appraising that new dot and the formula said you have to adjust the 2024 sales down 14%.

 

[OG80]

Just gave Jim Amorin's app a try. He did it in html and calculates a 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, and 12 month trend. Pretty interesting - and very simple to use.

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Where can I find this app? Thx

 

[TerryRohrer]

I don't know which apps are being posted above, but in a kerfuffle on Facebook, TrueFootage responded to a post that said results from TrueFootage's new time adjustment calculator were dangerous. The TrueFootage response was, put the indicated market conditions adjustment (or any others from their programs) in your adjustment grid and see if how it works. If you don't like the result, change the data or change the analysis.

That approach begs the question, if you know the answer, why are you hiding it in a program you can't explain and haven't the slightest idea what is happening within it? That is exactly the same approach as picking "comps" by price based on ? In order to do so, you have to first conclude the value of the subject, then search in relation to that conclusion. And some think only the cost approach is being "backed into."

 

[Charles West]

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Look how much one extra dot changed the results. It said you need to make 10-14% downward adjustments from July / August sales for the last couple months. Now today, with the addition of one more dot, it is only 5% downward adjustment.

Stuff like this is not usable.

Pardon my ignorance but isn't that data set indicative of an appreciating market, irrespective of seasonality?

 

[CGinMN]

Maybe so, but I wouldn't consider 'Texas' to be a market. When I drill down to just a zip code - no other filters applied - I get this:

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Don’t use this tool. It has tons of data errors and I have tried to replicate it by export the raw data into a spreadsheet and I get different results. I called my MLS who referred me to core logic. I reached out to them and they said they don’t update it and offer no support.

 

[alebrewer]

Don’t use this tool. It has tons of data errors and I have tried to replicate it by export the raw data into a spreadsheet and I get different results. I called my MLS who referred me to core logic. I reached out to them and they said they don’t update it and offer no support.

It's not the tool I personally use, although I do reference that functionality from time to time. For those just dipping their toes into data analysis, though, its (IMO) not a bad place to start learning how to visualize data.